REPORT: ARF FINALIZES VISION STATEMENT, ADVANCES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 065580

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL ARF EAID TH ID PK IN
SUBJECT: REPORT: ARF FINALIZES VISION STATEMENT, ADVANCES
INSTITUTIONAL INITIATIVES AT SENIOR OFFICIALS MEETING

Ref: Bangkok 1246


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Senior officials, including U.S. Ambassador for
ASEAN Affairs Scot Marciel, from ASEAN Regional Forum's (ARF) 27
members met to finalize negotiations on a draft Vision Statement,
approve other institutional proposals, and discuss various regional
security issues in Phuket, Thailand on May 20. The near-final Vision
Statement reflects the consensus-based, gradualist approach of ARF's
diverse membership. Outside of the much-discussed U.S.-proposed
Model Arrangement for Use of Foreign Military Assets in Disaster
Relief, ARF Senior Officials endorsed other institutional proposals
in the fields of disaster relief, counter terrorism and transnational
crime. Additionally, officials discussed North Korea, Burma,
Afghanistan/Pakistan, and Iran. END SUMMARY

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ARF'S MODEST VISION STATEMENT DRAFT FINALIZED
--------------

2. (SBU) ARF Senior Officials, including Ambassador Marciel, focused
their May 20 discussions on the negotiation and finalization of a
draft Vision Statement. Having delayed tabling a draft until moments
before the opening of a April 21-22 working-level ARF meeting,
Thailand had initial difficulty in gaining strong support for its
lengthy, muddled draft. Ambassador Marciel, along with counterparts
from some ASEAN and non-ASEAN countries, stressed the need for a more
focused and forward-leaning Vision Statement appropriate for
Ministerial endorsement. Many delegations favored a U.S.-tabled,
shorter revision of the original Thailand draft. However, none
seemed comfortable shelving the original Thai draft that ASEAN had
earlier supported. While ARF Senior Officials continued discussion
of other matters, Thailand chaired a separate working-level drafting
session to iron out differences. Senior officials ultimately
endorsed the key elements of that draft. The final draft is a
slightly clearer yet still modest delineation of ARF's
consensus-based and gradualist principles, endorsed a wide-ranging
agenda on both traditional and non-traditional security issues, and
called for an implementation plan to be approved at next year's ARF.

-------------- -------------- DISASTER RELIEF
EXERCISE, OTHER INITIATIVES BRIEFED
-------------- --------------

3. (SBU) The Philippines, along with the United States, briefed on
the ARF disaster relief exercise, termed Voluntary Demonstration of
Response (VDR). Participants welcomed the initiative as an example
of tangible, concrete cooperation by ARF on an important
transnational security issue. On the margins, Japan appears likely
to announce its intention to serve as a co-sponsor of the next ARF
disaster relief exercise. Indonesia is still considering its role as
possible host, perhaps conducting an ARF exercise combined with the
late 2010 annual ASEAN disaster relief exercise in Indonesia.


4. (U) A number of other institutional and security cooperation
concepts were advanced, updated, and discussed. Notable items
include:

--Model Arrangement for the Use of Foreign Military and Civil Defense
Assets (MCDA) for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (United
States, Indonesia): Senior officials held an extensive discussion on
the U.S. draft concept paper and text for the Model MCDA Arrangement
initiative. While some delegations welcomed the document, others
such as India, Pakistan, and Indonesia (who had committed to serve as
co-sponsor) continued to express reservations. The Thai chair ruled
that unless objections are expressed in writing to the Thai Chair by
mid-June, the proposal will be considered as endorsed by ARF Senior
Officials, ready for approval by ARF Ministers on July 23, and ready
for negotiations on a draft text during next inter-sessional year.
The Model Arrangement is designed to produce a consensus text for ARF
governments to use as a starting point for bilateral negotiations
involving sensitive legal and policy issues regarding the
introduction of foreign military focuses into disaster relief
situations.

--Standardized Annual Security Outlook (ARF Unit): The ASEAN
Secretariat's ARF Unit has been tasked by ARF Ministers to
standardize and streamline the voluntary, annual submissions by ARF
members of their security perceptions. With ASEAN still mulling over
the Secretariat's proposed draft, the Annual Security Outlook
template will be considered next inter-sessional year.

--Working Methods Paper (ARF Unit): The ARF Unit submitted a revised
paper designed to consolidate several institutional reform
initiatives. These include press engagement, streamlining ARF's
meeting structure, and leadership by designated members over specific
subject areas. Senior officials made some minor adjustments to the

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working methods for final approval by ARF Ministers.

--Preventive Diplomacy Work Plan (ARF Unit, New Zealand): Delegations
discussed how ARF could better make use of the recommendations of a
2008 Study on Preventive Diplomacy, including the utility of crafting
a preventive diplomacy work plan. ARF's official Track Two process,
the ARF Expert and Eminent Persons, will produce such a draft.

--Work Plan on Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC)
(United States, ARF Unit): An updated version of the U.S.-proposed
CTTC Work Plan was distributed. New project ideas and nominations
for leadership positions were included.


-------------- --
NORTH KOREA AND OTHER SECURITY ISSUES DISCUSSED
-------------- --

Thai Permanent Secretary Virasakdi Futrikul chaired a session where
senior officials delivered prepared interventions on a number of
pressing issues affecting the regional security situation.


5. (U) KOREAN PENNINSULA: Most delegations expressed deep concern
over the DPRK's April 5 launch of a long-range rocket and its
subsequent expulsion of IAEA personnel. All stressed that the
peaceful resolution of the DPRK nuclear issue was vital to regional
security. They urged continued support and full participation by the
DPRK in the Six-Party Talks, the disablement of DPRK's nuclear
programs, and full compliance by the DPRK with the UN Security
Council Presidential Statement. The Japanese and North Korean
delegations had a heated exchange on the issue.


6. (U) BURMA: Following a standard briefing by Burma on its political
and humanitarian situation, most delegations focused on the need for
genuine political dialogue and reform within Burma. ASEAN was
commended for its role in the Tripartite Core Group facilitating
relief assistance to Burmese victims of Cyclone Nargis. The meeting
urged Burma to cooperate with the international community UN Special
Representative Ibrahim Gambari in making progress toward democratic
reform and national reconciliation. Ambassador Marciel also
discussed U.S. views on the situation in Burma, including the U.S.
policy review, and had a brief exchange with his Burmese counterpart
on these issues (Ref A).


7. (U) IRAN, AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN, NONPROLIFERATION, OTHER ISSUES:
The United States expressed serious concern about Iran's continued
pursuit of a nuclear weapons program, and urged Iran to comply fully
and without delay with its international nonproliferation
obligations. The U.S. delegation also spoke to its willingness to
engage directly with Iran on this issue. Other delegations,
including the EU, Japan, Australia, and Canada voiced similar
concerns. A number of delegations pressed the need for greater
reconstruction assistance in Afghanistan and stability in the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and the bilateral relationship.
Pakistan welcomed the recent Friends of Pakistan meeting and pledged
continued efforts to eradicate extremism. A number of delegations
also spoke to the importance of the region, including ARF, combating
transnational and non-traditional security threats such as disasters,
maritime insecurity, terrorism, transnational crime, peacekeeping
challenges, and climate change. Some delegations raised the need for
greater cooperation on nonproliferation and disarmament matters in
the lead-up to the 2010 Nonproliferation Review Conference and
welcomed the recent statement from President Obama on the issue.
Recent military actions in Sri Lanka, security implications of the
global financial crisis, instability in the South China Sea, the
Middle East, and Australia's proposal for streamlining regional
architecture were also briefly noted by some delegations.


8. UPCOMING ARF ACTIVITIES:
--ARF Workshop on Laboratory Bio-Safety and Bio-Security, Manila,
Philippines, June 10-11 [co-chairs: US, the Philippines]
--1st Inter-Sessional Meeting (ISM) on Non-Proliferation and
Disarmament, Beijing, China, likely July 1-3, 2009 [co-chairs: United
States, China, Singapore]
--ARF Peacekeeping Experts Meeting, June 23-24, Siem Reap, Cambodia
[Japan, Cambodia]
--16th ASEAN Regional Forum Ministerial, Thailand, July 23, 2009
[Thailand]
--9th ARF Inter-Sessional Meeting (ISM) on Disaster Relief, Honolulu,
Hawaii mid-September 2009 [co-chairs: United States, Thailand]


9. (U) POC: The POC for questions or follow-up is EAP/RSP Kevin
Sheives (sheiveskw@state.gov, 202-647-1217). This report, a copy of
the finalized Vision Statement, and other background information on
ARF and U.S. participation in ARF can be found at:
http://eap.state.gov/EAPOffices/RSP/ARF.cfm


10. (SBU) COMMENT: Many delegations, especially within ASEAN, were
unwilling to fundamentally redirect ARF's pace and agenda through the

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Vision Statement or set out a forward-leaning "vision" for ARF's
future. Reflecting ASEAN's leadership style, the Thai Chair's
risk-averse approach narrowed the chance that the Vision Statement
would be the vehicle for a major reevaluation of the institution's
purposes and mandate. The near-final text nonetheless contains many
positive elements sympathetic to the U.S. views on prioritizing
transnational security. However, the draft remains unfocused and
still includes mandates for a gradualist approach to less successful
traditional security and preventive diplomacy measures. The
compromise text reflects the mixed viewpoints from ARF's 27 diverse
members. The recent successful ARF disaster relief exercise and other
modes of cooperation on transnational security matters suggest that
ARF will most likely develop incrementally, focused in areas of
common interest. Fundamental changes will be difficult to achieve.
CLINTON