AFGHAN ELECTIONS: CHALLENGING THE PROCESS TO

S E C R E T STATE 062422


NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: AFGHAN ELECTIONS: CHALLENGING THE PROCESS TO
DELIVER

REF: A. A) STATE 59361

B. B) KABUL 1493


Classified By: S/SRAP Richard C. Holbrooke for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S/NF) Thank you for your cable (ref b) setting out the
actions being taken on the ground to deliver credible, secure
and inclusive elections. It is our view that we must do more.
Despite your best efforts, there remains an Afghan and
international perception that the U.S. and most of the
international community are supporting Karzai's candidacy.
Unless Afghans find not only our words but our deeds
credible, they will vote for the candidate they think will
win and we support.


2. (S/NF) We need to do everything we can to rebalance a
playing field increasingly viewed as tilted towards Karzai.
Our policy must be to make the elections process as fair as
possible, not defend the status quo.


3. (S/NF) Without credible elections the link between the
government and the people will be broken. The U.S. would be
supporting a regime without a popular mandate. Our European
partners, resolve will further weaken. Iran's current
debacle offers us an important lesson that must be avoided,
but is not impossible, if there is a widespread perception of
theft.


4. (C) The June 16 POTUS statement sets the strategic
direction. What matters next are actions on the ground. The
international community has failed to deliver adequate,
timely, solutions to a range of issues. We need immediate
policies, which have been delayed for too long. Please set
out what your plans are to deliver immediate and concrete
results on:

a) SBU) Access to transport for all candidates, including how
we distinguish between Karzai the candidate and Karzai the
president when we support his travel (this has been
unresolved for months now ) we need a conclusion);

b) (SBU) Adequate security for all candidates, including
where candidates have legitimately judged security provision
inadequate (we cannot risk a major incident due in part to
our inattention to security issues);

c) (SBU) Media: gazetting of the media law, equal or
equitable access to the media for candidates, backing the
Media Commission and international community monitoring of,
and setting out when, the media broadcasts unfairly;

d) (SBU) Public debates / candidate platforms and higher
media profiles for the candidates so they are better known;

e) (SBU) Regular polling: the IRI poll is a helpful start.
Polling is one of the most powerful tools available ) poll
early; poll often and get the results out. We must have more
polls;

f) (SBU) Minimizing fraud, including through scenario
planning where it is likely to occur, including through mass
voting by tribal elders and other leaders and what mitigating
actions can be put in place;

g) (SBU) Observers at as many of the polling stations as
possible: Tim Carney's group is doing great work in
co-ordinating the observation missions, but how are we
ensuring there is good coverage across the country?

h) (SBU) Monitoring adherence to the Presidential decree on
non-interference;

i) (SBU) US, ISAF military and PRTs are briefed on the
elections and are playing an active role in ensuring the
impartiality of local government officials and security
forces. Plus monitoring of any local media. When will civ-mil
guidance issue? We need (at least) weekly, consolidated
progress reports;

j) (SBU) We understand that the IEC has awarded a contract to
use indelible ink: this is not acceptable in insecure areas,
and will lead to intimidation of potential voters and
possible mutilation of voters with purple-inked fingers. What
are we doing to minimize the backlash? Are the use of UV
stamps and scanners in the insecure areas viable?


5. (SBU) There will be associated costs with many of these
ideas. While both transport and security, for example, for
all candidates will not be cheap and will have opportunity
costs, the relative costs set against the campaign are
minimal. Let us know immediately if lack of funding is
impeding progress.


6. (C) We want to underscore that a credible election is not
incompatible with a Karzai win. But it is in his interests to
win credibly, if he wins. You need to ensure that he realizes
this.


7. (SBU) Grateful for initial answers to the above by our
open of business tomorrow, Wednesday 17, to inform oral
briefings at the highest levels tomorrow. You can send
longer, fully-drafted answers to be received by our open of
play Monday June 22. Point of contact for any questions is
Jane Marriott (exception to the NOFORN) on 202 647 9419 / 202
390 0799 (cell).


CLINTON