(SBU) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON LEADERSHIP AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 101469

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2034
TAGS: PINR PREL HR
SUBJECT: (SBU) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON LEADERSHIP AND
DEMOCRATIZATION IN CROATIA (C-RE9-01754)

Classified By: MICHAEL P. OWENS, ACTING DIR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C).


1. (C) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS CONTINUE TO BE INTERESTED IN
PRIME MINISTER JADRANKA KOSOR AND THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS IN 2010. WE WOULD APPRECIATE ANY INFORMATION POST
CAN PROVIDE ON PRIME MINISTER KOSOR AND ON ACTIVITIES WITHIN
POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE RUNUP TO THE 2011 PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS. ANY FURTHER INFORMATION ON CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC
UNION AND SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED, AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT.


A. (SBU) PRIME MINISTER JADRANKA KOSOR

1) (SBU) WHO ARE PM KOSOR'S KEY ADVISORS? WHICH ADVISORS
ARE CLOSEST TO HER? WHO IS IN HER INNER CIRCLE? WHO ARE PM
KOSOR'S ADVISORS ON BOSNIA AND WHAT ARE HER POLICIES TOWARD
BOSNIA?

2) (SBU) TO WHAT DEGREE DOES SHE SUPPORT THE CREATION OF A
CROAT-MAJORITY TERRITORIAL UNIT IN BOSNIA? DOES PM KOSOR
SUPPORT THE UNIFICATION OF THE TWO HDZ PARTIES IN BOSNIA? HOW
DOES SHE INTERACT WITH BOSNIAN CROAT LEADERS--DIRECTLY OR
THROUGH ADVISORS?
3) (SBU) WHAT FOREIGN POLICY OBJECTIVES HAS PM KOSOR
ESTABLISHED FOR HER GOVERNMENT? WHAT EFFORTS IS SHE TAKING TO
IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH SERBIA, BOSNIA, AND CROATIA'S OTHER
NEIGHBORS?

4) (SBU) WHAT IS PM KOSOR DOING TO GAIN SUPPORT AND TO
STAVE OFF POSSIBLE THREATS FROM RIVALS WITHIN HER PARTY AND
OUTSIDE OF HER PARTY? WHO DOES SHE VIEW AS A THREAT TO HER
POSITION IN GOVERNMENT AND IN THE PARTY?

5) (SBU) WHAT ARE THE KOSOR GOVERNMENT'S REDLINES ON THE
SLOVENIA-CROATIA BORDER DISPUTE? WHAT COMPROMISES IS KOSOR
WILLING TO MAKE TO RESUME EU TALKS?

6) (SBU) WHAT IS THE STATUS OF PM KOSOR'S HEALTH? WHAT ARE
HER POLITICAL AMBITIONS AND PAST PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCES?


B. (SBU) FORMER PRIME MINISTER IVO SANADER

1) (SBU) WHY DID SANADER DECIDE TO LEAVE POLITICS? WHAT ARE
HIS FUTURE POLITICAL AMBITIONS? DOES HE INTEND TO RETURN TO
POLITICS? TO WHAT DEGREE IS HE EXERTING INFLUENCE OVER THE
CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION (HDZ) AND ON THE NEW GOVERNMENT?

2) (SBU) PLEASE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BIOGRAPHICAL REPORTING
ON SANADER'S ADVISORS, DECISIONMAKING, AND HEALTH, AS TIME
ANS RESOURCES ALLOW.


C. (SBU) CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION (HDZ)

1) (SBU) WHAT DIVISIONS EXIST WITHIN THE HDZ? WHAT IS THE
CAUSE OF THE DIVISIONS? WHERE DO PROMINENT PARTY MEMBERS
STAND IN TERMS OF DIVISIONS WITHIN PARTY? WHICH HDZ MEMBERS
ARE SEEKING TO CONTROL THE PARTY? WHO SUPPORTS THEM?

2) (SBU) WHAT INITIATIVES ARE NATIONALIST HDZ MEMBERS
TAKING TO HAVE A GREATER VOICE WITHIN THE PARTY AND TO WHAT
END? WHO IS LEADING THESE EFFORTS? WHAT ARE THEIR VIEWS ON
CROATIA'S EU ACCESSION AND OTHER GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES?


D. (SBU) SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (SDP)

1) (SBU) WHAT EFFORTS IS THE SDP TAKING TO WIN THE
PRESIDENCY IN 2010 AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN 2011? HOW
DOES THE SDP VIEW ITS PROSPECTS GIVEN SANADER'S DEPARTURE?
WHAT ARE THE PARTY'S PLANS ON ATTRACTING COALITION PARTNERS?

2) (SBU) WHO ARE SDP PRESIDENT ZORAN MILANOVIC'S KEY
RIVALS? WHICH PARTY MEMBERS SUPPORT MILANOVIC AND WHO
SUPPORTS HIS RIVALS?


E. (SBU) INDEPENDENTS IN 2010 ELECTIONS

1) (SBU) PLEASE PROVIDE ANY INFORMATION ON INDIVIDUALS WHO
ARE RUNNING AS INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES FOR THE PRESIDENCY.

2) (SBU) PLEASE PROVIDE ANY INFORMATION ON ZAGREB MAYOR
MILAN BANDIC'S PLANS TO RUN FOR THE PRESIDENCY.


2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-RE9-01754 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF
REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS.
CLINTON