MACEDONIA: ETHNIC-ALBANIANS SENDING MIXED MESSAGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000066

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ETHNIC-ALBANIANS SENDING MIXED MESSAGES
ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS

Classified By: CDA TOM NAVRATIL FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The ethnic-Albanian (e-Albanian) political
leaders in Macedonia have given positive indications that
they understand how critical fair and democratic municipal
and presidential elections are to Macedonia,s future. They
have repeatedly reassured us that their own parties will not
disrupt the election process but in private do not refrain
from allegations that other e-Albanian parties will create
problems. (End Summary)


2. (C) E-Albanian political leaders in Macedonia have given
positive indications that they understand how critical the
presidential and municipal elections in March are after
ODHIR,s August 2008 election report blamed the e-Albanian
community for much of the violence that occurred during the
June 2008 parliamentary elections. DUI leader Ali Ahmeti and
DPA leader Menduh Thaci have cooperated publicly to advocate
a peaceful environment conducive to fair, violence-free
elections. On January 23 they held a one-on-one meeting in
Tetovo to discuss actions they could take to ensure free and
fair elections. At the meeting they both made statements to
the press about the importance of these elections to
Macedonia,s Euro-Atlantic integration and indicated they
would work within their parties to prevent violence during
the elections. On February 3, DUI and DPA also mutually
agreed to limit the display of party propaganda and flags
exclusively to their local branches and in front of party
seats. Interparty fighting for propaganda space accounted
for much of the violence that occurred in the last elections.
During a recent trip to Tirana, Ahmeti and ND party leader
and presidential candidate, Imer Selmani, also held an
impromptu, but lengthy meeting in which they discussed ways
to prevent election violence and irregularities.


3. (C) In private, Thaci has maintained that his party, DPA
(which shouldered much of the blame for violence during the
June 2008 elections),was not in a position to cause problems
during the upcoming elections. Thaci pointed out that his
party was decimated after its failure in the previous
elections and cannot afford to be a negative actor in these
elections. Surprisingly, many of his opponents also agreed
with this assessment and believe DPA will not instigate
problems. Most believe DPA,s singular objective in the
upcoming elections will be to win control of the mayor,s
office in Tetovo.


4. (C) The presidential candidates from the three primary
Albanian parties have also given us their assurances that
they would promote free and fair elections. New Democracy
candidate Imer Selmani has taken a hard line against the
tolerance of any election irregularities. From the inception
of his party he has also taken the stance that his party
would be a democratic, non-violent alternative to DPA and
DUI. DPA candidate Mirushe Hoxha also expressed a desire to
promote free and fair elections and acknowledged that as the
only female presidential candidate she may be able to convey
that message more effectively than the other candidates.


5. (C) Despite espousing positive messages about their own
parties, all the Albanian leaders have been quick to predict
that their opponents would stir up problems during the
upcoming elections. Thaci and DUI presidential candidate
Agron Buxhaku both claim that New Democracy inherited many of
the DPA,s trouble makers from previous elections and assert
that ND may instigate the problems during this election.
Thaci claimed that he even had a hand in assuring that the
worst elements of his party crossed over to ND. However, in
the same conversation Thaci conveniently excused some of the
known trouble makers that remain in his party, such as former
Deputy Interior Minister Rafet Elmazi, as falsely accused.
Gostivar,s independent mayoral candidate Rufi Osmani
insisted that DUI was bussing in known criminals from Kosovo
to intimidate and harass the opposition. He named Shaqir
Tershana as one of these, who he alleges has been making
telephone threats. (Note- Osmani,s race against DUI
incumbent Nevzat Beta has already shown signs that it will be
heated and dirty. In a recent meeting, Osmani presented us
with a long list of wild corruption allegations against his
opponent. Later, on February 12, Osmani,s candidacy was
disallowed by the DUI leaning municipal election council in
Gostivar for a previous crime (flying the Albanian flag and
insighting a riot) and jail time that was later amnestied.
Osmani is appealing the ruling.)


6. (C) New Democracy MP and election campaign manager,
Sulejman Rushiti denied allegations that his party would
bring any negative elements to the election. He gave strong

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assurances that the founding principle of his party was to
get away from the election violence and irregularities
promoted by DPA in the previous elections. He also asserted
that his party was strongly advocating against violence in
the elections and they have told their members they would not
protect or defend anyone that engaged in such activities.


7. (C) Comment: We probably could not ask for a better public
commitment from the e-Albanian party leadership. But the
campaign does not formally begin until March 2, and it was a
series of violent or intimidation incidents prior to June
2008 elections that foreshadowed the violence on election
day. We will maintain the pressure on all parties to run a
calm campaign, including travelling to those municipalities
where there could be trouble.
NAVRATIL