MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIANS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000039

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIANS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
FUTURE ELECTIONS AND BEYOND

REF: SKOPJE 748

Classified By: CDA TOM NAVRATIL FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. Summary: (C) Recent soundings of ethnic Albanian
(e-Albanian) contacts have revealed a pessimistic outlook
towards the current state of interethnic relations in
Macedonia. They have expressed a high level of
dissatisfaction with the e-Macedonian governing party,
VMRO-DPMNE, and its cooperation with its e-Albanian coalition
partners since returning to power in 2006. Intraparty and
interparty bickering and sabotage in and between the
e-Albanian parties have exacerbated the situation. This
environment has created skepticism that municipal and
presidential elections scheduled for March 22 will go
smoothly. (End Summary)


2. (C) Background: Since the brief interethnic conflict of
2001 the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) and the
Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) have been the two most
powerful e-Albanian parties in Macedonia and intense
adversaries. DUI has been a governing coalition partner
twice, with SDSM from 2002 to 2006 and with VMRO from 2008 to
present. DPA was VMRO,s coalition partner from 2006-2008
despite having fewer MPs than DUI. During much of this period
DUI boycotted parliament and harshly criticized the
government, but then collaborated with VMRO in calling early
parliamentary elections in 2008. These elections were marred
with violence and irregularities in e-Albanian areas that
were hotly contested by DPA and DUI. DPA appeared to be
responsible for the great majority of these anti-democratic
practices. There were also serious problems with the
election process that had nothing to do with e-Albanians.
The outcome served primarily to consolidate VMRO,s power in
parliament but also created a vehicle for VMRO to bring DUI
(which won the e-Albanian vote decisively) into the
coalition. As with previous coalition changes, DUI,s
accession to power meant a sweeping churn of government jobs
from DPA to DUI hands, which has further aggravated tensions
between the parties. The fallout from the elections weakened
DPA even more when some of its strongest members left the
party out of frustration last September to form New Democracy
(ND).

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A Steady Downward Slide in Inter-Ethnic Relations
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2. (C) Despite some achievements since the conflict of 2001,
nearly all of our e-Albanian interlocutors indicate that
interethnic relations in Macedonia have been steadily
deteriorating since VMRO,s accession to government in 2006.
Nearly everyone, regardless of party affiliation, cites
VMRO,s unwillingness to give more than lip service to
e-Albanian issues, which is illustrated by the general
inability of DPA (2006-2008) or DUI (2008-present) to
accomplish much as a VMRO coalition partner. Due to VMRO,s
strong popular support among e-Macedonians, many believe the
party feels no pressure to concede anything to the e-Albanian
community. Leader of DPA,s local Tetovo branch, Neritan
Ferati, said the e-Albanians are nothing more than &decor8
in the VMRO coalition government. More significant given his
party affiliation, Ferati believes the same was true when DPA
was VMRO,s partner. VMRO,s strategy has primarily been to
delegate interethnic political issues to its e-Albanian
coalition partners and then wash its hands of any
responsibility. VMRO politicians indicate that by delegating
these issues to the e-Albanians they have done their part in
placating this community, thus concluding that interethnic
tension should no longer be considered a priority.


3. (C) According to the multi-ethnic NGO Loja, government
spending on public infrastructure and development projects is
another area that clearly illustrates the interethnic divide
in Macedonia. They cited numerous examples of e-Macedonian
neighborhoods that have received substantial federal
investments while adjoining e-Albanian areas have been
neglected. (Post has received similar complaints about
federal government spending on municipal projects from
SDSM,s e-Macedonian opposition municipal leaders, which
suggests the problem may be as much a partisan issue as it is
an ethnic issue.)


4. (C) According to most of our interlocutors, the best thing
the international community can do to ensure ethnic harmony
is to continue to promote improvements to rule of law. They
specifically pointed out that government has used the
politicized police force and judiciary to exert pressure on

SKOPJE 00000039 002 OF 003


the e-Albanian population and then justify it legally. They
cited a number of recent high-profile raids and arrests by
Macedonia,s elite police unit Alpha as examples. The NGO
Loja also told us that the government has used frequent
investigations of its financial records to maintain a
watchful eye over its activities.


5. (C) In many cases the e-Albanian parties, blinded by their
ambition, are further marginalizing themselves by squaring
off against each other, in some cases with VMRO,s
complicity. For example, New Democracy MP Sulejman Rushiti
told us that the recent raid of Koha newspaper editor Arben
Ratkoceri,s home and the subsequent arrest of his
brother-in-law, Diamant Mehmeti, in alleged connection with
the murder of an Alpha team member in November, in fact had
nothing to do with the murder investigation. He claimed they
were actually part of a wider conspiracy, involving an
alliance between DPA leader Menduh Thaci and the VMRO
controlled intelligence services aimed at exerting pressure
on Koha. Arben Ratkoceri cautiously corroborated this
conspiracy theory in a subsequent meeting with us. He
claimed Thaci,s objective was not only to exert pressure on
Koha- which has become increasingly independent of DPA in
recent months- but also to pass blame for the raids and
arrests to DUI, as government coalition partner, for allowing
them to happen. Other e-Albanian leaders have also alluded
to this particular investigation as a government tactic to
exert control over specific e-Albanians somehow deemed to be
threats.


6. Recently, both Thaci and DUI President Ali Ahmeti have
made disturbing references to the gernerally taboo concept of
a "Greater Albania". In a recent interview, Thaci
acknowledged that the topic of a "Greater Albania" was
political taboo but said it was an important idea and was
being appropriatly reopened at a time when e-Albanians had
completed their achievement for the new century, implying
Kosovo independence and Albania's NATO accession. In a
recent lunch Ahmeti described to the Ambassador an idea he
had discussed with PM Gruevski to boost Macedonia's chances
for NATO accession, proposing the political unification of
Macedonia, Kosovo, Albania and Montenegro. Ambassador
responded that such a scheme would have no bearing on
Macedonia's NATO accession and, noting the underlying
implication of a Greater Albania, rejected the idea. Ahmeti
denied aspirations for a Greater Albania, insisting that his
plan would merely represent border and economic
liberalization among the countries. According to Ahmeti's
account, Gruevski was unreceptive to the idea.

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No Improvement Expected in Upcoming Elections
--------------


6. (C) Officially, e-Albanian leaders have expressed optimism
that the upcoming elections in March would be better than the
elections last June. However, in confidence, most of the
same people confessed that they do not have any reason to
believe these elections will be different. Most pointed out
that very few of the people responsible for disrupting the
previous elections have been punished for their actions, and
in fact many were ultimately rewarded by the candidates for
whom they helped secure victories. Note- Rufi Osmani, who
announced that he is returning to politics to run for Mayor
of Gostivar as an independent candidate after being
imprisoned ten years ago while serving in the same position,
said he was already aware of underground groups organizing to
disrupt the elections. A number of our interlocutors also
suggested that the electoral code,s failure to address
specific campaigning issues was still a major problem and
would result in the same tactics of pre-election intimidation
and unchecked campaign financing that occurred during the
previous elections.


7. (C) Most e-Albanians express mixed feelings over the use
of a highly visible, heavily armed police presence at the
polling stations. Some feel it is the only way to curb
malfeasance and believe it ultimately proved successful in
curbing irregularities during the last elections, while
others feel the police are just as likely to tamper with the
elections as anyone else. Osmani recommended the government
place senior government officials in the polling places to
discourage irregularities. Others suggested that a top down
approach was necessary, believing party leaders must be held
personally accountable by both the government and the
international community for election disturbances, and should
not be permitted to plead ignorance to the actions of their
party members.

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DUI Faltering?
--------------


8. (C) DUI Mayor of Tearce, Rami Qerimi, candidly asserted
that his party,s recent political success was less a result
of DUI,s strong political performance than it was of DPA,s
poor political performance as the previous e-Albanian
coalition partner. He admitted that DUI was in some internal
turmoil and would need to reorganize if it hoped to maintain
its position as the lead e-Albanian party. His criticism
bears out the private sentiments of many other DUI members,
such as MP Emira Mehmeti, who have expressed frustration over
DUI,s failure achieve any significant accomplishments as
coalition partner. Compounded with the internal bickering
between DUI,s central authority and its municipal level
politicians, DUI,s recent accession to power already seems
to be faltering. Rumors abound that DUI may even withdraw
from the coalition after the March elections. If this
occurs, there does not appear to be another e-Albanian party
currently capable of stepping into a leadership role for the
e-Albanian community. Only two other e-Albanian parties- DPA
and ND- have any parliamentary representation. DPA lost some
of its most promising members to ND and is still in turmoil
from its poor election turnout earlier this year. ND shows
promise but is still in its infancy.

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Comment: Shortsighted Political Ambition
--------------


10. (C) VMRO,s nationalist thrust and intense party-first
politics have brought interethnic progress to a standstill in
the eyes of many e-Albanians. Some assert that interethnic
relations are even regressing in some areas and this downward
slide will eventually lead to a confrontation, but they are
careful to avoid specifying exactly when this confrontation
might occur or what form it will take. The e-Albanian
parties have only aggravated the situation with persistent
bickering and a general willingness to sell out their long
term goals for the short term gains that come from political
ascendance. There is clearly a tendency among e-Albanians to
focus on their maximalist unmet demands, especially in
conversations with the international community, rather than
on the steps forward VMRO has taken. Nevertheless, this
environment makes the upcoming elections in March
particularly worrisome. Our consistent message to
e-Albanians is that these elections must be free of the
abuses that took place in 2008 if they want to be in a
position to advance their Euro-Atlantic aspirations. It is
extremely clear in our conversations and observations here
that continued lack of progress toward NATO and EU membership
greatly intensifies the dissatisfactions and frustrations of
e-Albanians in Macedonia.
NAVRATIL