Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09SKOPJE188
2009-04-22 16:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN POLITICS IN FERMENT

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM MK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6335
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSQ #0188/01 1121637
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 221637Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8185
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 0516
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000188 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN POLITICS IN FERMENT

Classified By: Ambassador Reeker for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000188

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN POLITICS IN FERMENT

Classified By: Ambassador Reeker for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Ethnic Albanian politicians increasingly
believe PM Gruevski's government is not committed to their
top goal: Euro-Atlantic integration. Largest e-Albanian
party and coalition partner DUI is struggling with how to
push Gruevski to solve the name issue (thus opening the door
to NATO and the EU) and whether to even remain in government.
Intra-Albanian politics are more complex than ever and no
other clear choice for an e-Albanian coalition partner
exists. The outcome could be that Gruevski carries on
without an e-Albanian partner, not a good sign for
interethnic relations. End summary.


2. (C) Post-election conversations with a range of
ethnic-Albanian political leaders reveal deep concerns about
Macedonia's immediate future, and in particular the ruling
VMRO party's almost complete control over nearly all
political institutions and -- according to most e-Albanians
-- PM Gruevski's apparent disinterest in finding a solution
to the name issue with Greece in order to pave the way toward
Euro-Atlantic integration.

DUI: Troubled and Torn
--------------


3. (C) The largest e-Albanian party DUI, VMRO's coalition
partner, is acutely troubled. DUI leader Ali Ahmeti and,
separately and more directly, party VP Teuta Arifi both told
the Ambassador within the past week that they are deeply
concerned about how to continue as VMRO's coalition partner
without any progress on the name nor any sense that DUI is a
genuine coalition partner. Ahmeti pointed out the
contradiction that some e-Albanians criticize DUI for
partnering with VMRO, yet VMRO treats DUI almost like
opposition within the government.


4. (C) Arifi assessed that DUI's position as VMRO's partner
would quickly become untenable without an immediate signal
that Gruevski planned to move on Euro-Atlantic integration,
i.e. the name issue. Thus far, DUI has remained silent on
the issue to give Gruevski room to work and so that the
e-Albanian community would not be tagged by e-Macedonians as
betraying the country. Thus Arifi asked the Ambassador
directly how much pressure the U.S. was prepared to bring on

Gruevski to solve the name issue as soon as possible. The
Ambassador responded that we have made clear to Gruevski that
he needs to signal a willingness to negotiate seriously.


5. (C) Arifi admitted that leaving the coalition would be a
real blow to DUI: As the largest e-Albanian party (wounded as
it was by significant losses in the municipal elections),
DUI's rightful place is in government. The alternatives --
Menduh Thaci's DPA, Imer Selmani's New Democracy (ND),or no
e-Albanian partner at all -- are all distasteful to DUI.
Additionally, Arifi acknowledged the risk that agitating on
the name would be dangerous for any e-Albanian party.
Seeking someone to blame on the name issue and with a
fragmented opposition and President Crvenkovski now out of
office, Gruevski could easily pick on DUI. This could in
turn ramp up interethnic tensions.

New Democracy: Who Are You?
--------------


6. (C) In an April 8 meeting with Selmani, he echoed many of
the same concerns: with VMRO in total control, no movement on
the name issue, the worldwide slowdown hitting an economy
already slow to transition, plus tensions over issues such as
the GoM's plan to build a large church in Skopje's city
square, e-Albanians will become significantly more
frustrated. He believed the country was inherently more
stable than in 2001, but also worried that Gruevski and VMRO
would seek to scapegoat or even intentionally provoke the
e-Albanian community for short-term political gain.


7. (C) For his part, Selmani is still searching for an
identity for his party. He won about 15% of the vote for
president, or about 150,000 votes. Of those votes, about
50,000 came from non-Albanians including many e-Macedonians;
this is unprecedented for an e-Albanian politician. If ND
were to get this many votes in a parliamentary election,
Selmani estimated that would come to 20 seats, or more than
DUI holds now. However, ND fared much less well in municipal
elections, narrowly winning only one municipality, Aracinovo.
Selmani is struggling with a simple dilemma: if he builds a
truly multi-ethnic party in an effort to keep drawing
e-Macedonian votes, this could alienate e-Albanian voters.
If ND remains more or less exclusively e-Albanian, he will
likely struggle to retain the non-Albanian votes he got in
March, many of which were likely protest votes against VMRO's
Gjorge Ivanov and SDSM's Ljubomir Frckoski. We learned

SKOPJE 00000188 002 OF 002


recently that, through IRI, ND has retained the services of
an American political consultant (and former State DAS),who
has also recently worked for VMRO (and indeed has a long
history with VMRO, dating to his time as IRI representative
in the late 1990s).

Osmani: Rising Star
--------------


8. (C) All the e-Albanian parties are looking in the
rear-view mirror at Rufi Osmani, the fiery former mayor of
Gostivar who won the post again on April 5 after a ten-year
absence from politics. Ahmeti is dismissive of Osmani, but
Osmani's easy win over DUI incumbent Nevzat Bejta, even after
Ahmeti personally invested much of his time campaigning
there, is widely seen as a sign of both Osmani's ascendance
and DUI's vulnerability. Osmani plans to create yet another
party, and confidently told us during the campaign that he
will overtake DUI and the others in a few short years.


9. (C) Gruevski is also likely wary of Osmani, a more
confrontational e-Albanian politician who made his name in
1997 for hoisting the Albanian flag in Gostivar in defiance
of the government. After a standoff, then-PM Branko
Crvenkovski sent in the troops in an operation that killed
three people and led to many arrests, including of Osmani,
who was sentenced to 13 years in prison but pardoned and
released after 18 months. DUI's Arifi told us that given
Osmani's martyr status his victory in Gostivar was more or
less pre-ordained, but she predicted that he will fail as a
mayor and will not be able to maintain his political
momentum. Osmani told us that he and Gruevski have had some
cordial telephone conversations, and he may even have to make
a coalition with VMRO on the Gostivar municipal council.
Nevertheless, we do not anticipate that Gruevski will be
eager to provide much in the way of funding or services for
Gostivar, which will in turn hurt Osmani's political chances.

DPA: Hanging In
--------------


10. (C) Through its win in Tetovo, DPA remains alive, if on
life support. In his conversation with us, Thaci was gleeful
that ND (which broke off from DPA last year) did not perform
especially well in the municipal elections. But DPA still
remains relatively unpopular among many e-Albanians
nationwide; it is largely believed that DPA mayoral candidate
Sadi Bexheti won in Tetovo largely by garnering the strong
majority of e-Macedonian votes in the ethnically-mixed urban
areas of the municipality. While Thaci kept his thugs
largely at bay in these elections -- in contrast to the chaos
and fear they created in 2008 -- he still earned few points
by boycotting leaders' meetings called by Gruevski and making
countless baseless or wildly exaggerated claims of police
"abuse" or other irregularities on both election days. (We
know, we checked.)

Comment: No One in the Wings
--------------


11. (C) DUI, DPA, ND, and Osmani will compete hard in the
coming years to be the e-Albanian community's
standard-bearer. None will likely succeed. VMRO may see a
politically fragmented e-Albanian community as being in its
interest. DUI is on a downward trajectory and is stuck in an
unhappy marriage with VMRO. Should they divorce, DUI will
lose the trappings of power and the patronage advantage it
has over the other parties. It is unlikely DPA or ND would
want to join a VMRO government, at least not without driving
a hard bargain. Thaci has a poor relationship with Gruevski,
who does not trust Thaci after a friction-filled two years as
coalition partners from 2006-2008. Many suspect, perhaps
with some reason, that ND is in part a VMRO creation, and
Selmani wants to keep some public space between himself and
Gruevski. ND would likely lose faith among many e-Albanians
by joining a VMRO government. Osmani is not an option: he
has no party structure, no seats in parliament, and likely no
real interest in working with Gruevski. Should DUI leave the
government, the possible outcome would be that VMRO would
continue without an e-Albanian partner. This would be an
unwelcome precedent and likely not good for interethnic
relations.
REEKER