MACEDONIAN ELECTIONS: GRUEVSKI IN NEAR-COMPLETE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000156

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIAN ELECTIONS: GRUEVSKI IN NEAR-COMPLETE
CONTROL

REF: SKOPJE 146

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) In a second round of presidential and municipal
elections assessed as generally meeting international
standards, ruling VMRO-DPMNE,s Gjorge Ivanov won by almost a
two-to-one margin over SDSM opponent Ljubomir Frckoski.
Macedonia,s ethnic Albanian population essentially boycotted
the presidential race, which barely (and perhaps
suspiciously) met the 40% turnout requirement. VMRO also
took 55 mayoral seats plus the Skopje mayor,s office, a huge
increase over the 21 mayoral seats the party won in the last
municipal elections. Opposition SDSM took only seven mayoral
seats, and is putting all its hopes for the resurrection of
the party in outgoing President Branko Crvenkovski, expected
to take back the party helm after he leaves office. The
largest e-Albanian party, DUI, lost the key municipalities of
Tetovo, Gostivar, and -- apparently -- Aracinovo; e-Albanian
politics here are now even more fragmented and complex.
Appeals and fallout from the heavy snow just prior to the
March 21 first round will mean yet one more round in some
mayoral races on April 19. End summary.

Elections Generally Met International Standards, But Problems
Remain
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2. (SBU) OSCE/ODIHR,s observer mission assessed the second
round of elections as meeting "most OSCE and Council of
Europe commitments and standards for democratic elections"
and noted improvements from the first round to the second in
administration of the voting and counting, and in reduction
of family and proxy voting. Following ODIHR,s first- round
assessment that family and proxy voting had increased over
June 2008, the State Electoral Commission (SEC) -- on the
international community,s urging -- issued explicit
instructions to Local Electoral Boards (LEBs) emphasizing
their responsibility to prevent family/proxy voting while
allowing and logging acceptable types of voter assistance (to
the illiterate or disabled). ODIHR and Embassy teams saw a
substantial reduction in family/proxy voting in the second
round, and an overall increase in LEBs, focus on procedural
details, including logging the names of election monitors.


3. (SBU) While citing some improvements between rounds,
ODIHR,s assessment also noted increased reports of pressure
and intimidation of voters by public administration officials
and party activists -- chiefly on behalf of VMRO -- ahead of
the second round, noting that these reports "continued to
cloud the generally positive assessment of the election
observation mission." The observer mission also cited the
sluggish response of the SEC to parties, appeals in the
first round (reftel) as problematic.

President-Elect Ivanov
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4. (SBU) As expected, PM Gruevski,s hand-picked candidate,
Gjorge Ivanov won handily over SDSM,s Ljubomir Frckoski,
getting more than 451,000 votes to Frckoski,s approximately
263,000. With a suspicious late-day surge in voting, the 40%
voter turnout threshold was met, with just over 42% of
registered voters casting ballots in the presidential
campaign. Nearly 45,000 voters cast invalid ballots, either
choosing neither candidate or writing in their own choices
(with quite a few choosing Chuck Norris),with the highest
rates of invalid ballots in ethnic Albanian areas; without
these ballots the 40% threshold would not have been met.
Turnout for the presidential vote in ethnic Albanian areas
was about 14% nationwide, with some areas seeing turnout
below 1%.


5. (SBU) Ambassador Reeker met briefly with President-elect
Ivanov April 7 to congratulate him on his victory,
highlighting the need for Ivanov to reach out to the
e-Albanian community. Additionally, the Ambassador suggested
that the President-elect use the transition period (Ivanov
will take office on May 12) to reach out across political
lines following this highly partisan campaign to demonstrate
that he will be a President to all citizens of Macedonia.
Ivanov had little of substance to offer, but noted that he
intended to invite the heads of state of all neighboring
countries to participate in the inaugural festivities (note:
a formal inauguration is not traditional in Macedonia),and
will determine the scale of the event based on RSVPs. Ivanov
said he is also considering hosting an inter-religious prayer
meeting as part of his inauguration at the newly-erected

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Mother Theresa memorial home.

What Opposition?
--------------


6. (SBU) VRMO-DPMNE,s victory in these elections was
crushing. In addition to Ivanov,s two to one win over
Frckoski in the Presidential elections, VMRO won mayoral
races in 55 municipalities plus Skopje, making huge gains
over the 2005 municipal elections, where VMRO took only 21
mayoral seats. SDSM and SDSM-backed candidates won only
seven municipalities versus the 36 it won in 2005. Most of
the mayoral races were much closer than the presidential
race, and in many municipalities VMRO won by narrow margins
to take mayoral seats where there has never been a non-SDSM
mayor, including Gevgelija and Berovo. SDSM can only claim
one of Skopje,s ten municipalities, Karposh (which was
actually won by a candidate from SDSM-partner LDP).


7. (SBU) SDSM,s now awaits President Branko Crvenkovski,s
relinquishing of office (May 12) and return to formal
leadership of the party. Interim SDSM President Zoran Zaev
told us ahead of elections that he would consider mayoral
wins in 20 municipalities a major victory, perhaps sufficient
for him to take on Crvenkovski for the party helm. With only
seven wins, including his own in Strumica, Zaev is likely to
simply pass the torch back to Crvenkovski, who has a tough
road ahead of him to rebuild a party in shambles.

Elections Leave Ethnic-Albanian Political Future Murky
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Although DUI mayors won in 12 of Macedonia,s 16
predominately e-Albanian municipalities (down from 13 in 2005
municipal elections) and DUI seems to have stayed a bid by
e-Macedonian Muslim/Torbeshi candidate Fiat Canoski to shift
the ethnic power balance in the volatile, lakeside
municipality of Struga, DUI is disappointed with its
performance in these elections. DUI lost control of two of
Macedonia,s most important e-Albanian municipalities, Tetovo
and Gostivar, and has apparently lost a close race to New
Democracy (ND) in Arachinovo, a suburb of Skopje that has
long been a National Liberation Army (NLA),and thus DUI,
stronghold. While VMRO all but wiped out its opposition in
these elections, its coalition partner is now faced with more
opposition than before. DPA,s candidate Sadi Bexheti won
in his party,s "must-win" race, Tetovo, giving wavering DPA
only one mayoral seat, but in the most important ethnic
Albanian city in Macedonia. Independent candidate Rufi
Osmani,s landslide victory in Gostivar almost certainly
means the formation of yet another new e-Albanian party, and
given Osmani,s history and his base the party will likely be
very vocal and hyper-critical of DUI.


9. (SBU) Aside from Imer Selmani,s impressive performance
in the first round presidential elections, ND,s results in
its first elections were disappointing. Should ND,s narrow
victory in Aracinovo be confirmed, the party can walk away
from these elections with modest credibility and be able to
continue its growth. Ultimately these elections show deep
ferment and continuing division in the e-Albanian political
scene. DUI remains in power, but that power is faltering as
its achievements in the coalition have come under harsher
criticism. With Tetovo, DPA survives and Menduh Thaci will
undoubtedly continue to be a thorn in DUI,s side. ND and
Osmani,s future party will further fragment the picture with
presumably contrasting ideologies and followings substantial
enough to be relevant but too modest to make a significant
impact.

Municipal Round Three
--------------


10. (SBU) Five municipalities will certainly have a third
round of elections, as polling stations in municipalities
that were closed due to the snow or annulment of voting in
the first round had their first round of municipal election
on April 5, and the municipalities will likely hold the
second round of their mayoral races on April 19 -- Orthodox
Easter. The SEC is now reviewing appeals of results in
polling stations in other municipalities and will make
decisions late this week or early next week on where there
may be re-runs of second round municipal elections. Many
victory margins were razor thin, and so annulments of results
based on irregularities could result in re-runs in a number
of key races, including Ohrid, Veles, Struga, Tetovo,
Aracinovo as well as a number of smaller municipalities.
ODIHR,s observer mission plans to monitor the appeals
process through this week, but not to send monitors for a

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third round.

Comment: Gruevski In Charge
--------------


11. (SBU) These elections leave Gruevski and VMRO in almost
complete control of the country and with the largest
e-Albanian party weaker. Yet Gruevski carries this mandate
toward an uncertain future. Macedonia,s economy, already
weak, could turn sharply downward in the coming months. The
name issue remains unsolved, and with it Euro-Atlantic
integration is stalled. Gruevski,s response to nearly every
issue is to take whatever course would further consolidate
his own power against an already defeated opposition. Now
the excuses have run out and it is time to engage on a
constructive way forward.
REEKER