Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09SKOPJE136
2009-03-27 12:25:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: ELECTIONS PEACEFUL AND WELL-RUN, VMRO TAKES

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM MK 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0136/01 0861225
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271225Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8129
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0501
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000136 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTIONS PEACEFUL AND WELL-RUN, VMRO TAKES
COMMANDING LEAD

Ref A: Skopje 49
Ref B: Skopje 74
Ref C: Skopje 109
Ref D: Skopje 124

Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000136

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTIONS PEACEFUL AND WELL-RUN, VMRO TAKES
COMMANDING LEAD

Ref A: Skopje 49
Ref B: Skopje 74
Ref C: Skopje 109
Ref D: Skopje 124

Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary: Macedonia held peaceful presidential and municipal
elections March 22 with few irregularities. Ruling VMRO
presidential candidate George Ivanov looks set to cruise to an easy
victory in the second round, to be held April 5. VMRO and its
ethnic-Albanian coalition partner DUI made gains in local elections.
Closely watched mayoral runoffs remain in Tetovo, Gostivar, Struga,
Ohrid, Skopje, and a number of other municipalities. The VMRO
government will likely emerge April 5 with an even firmer grip on
power, but will also have no excuses for not doing what it takes to
join NATO and the EU. End summary.

So Far, So Good
--------------


2. (U) 57% of eligible voters went to the polls March 22 in the
first round of presidential and nationwide municipal elections. The
election was a significant improvement over parliamentary elections
in 2008, which were marred by intimidation, violence, and
significant irregularities. This time there was no violence and the
atmosphere was calm and peaceful in all parts of the country.
International, domestic, and party observers as well as election
officials all reported a good atmosphere during the campaign and on
election day.


3. (U) The elections were generally well-run, despite logistical
challenges of jointly administering presidential and municipal
elections for the first time as well as the extra challenge of a
heavy snowstorm March 20 and 21 that made it difficult to deliver
ballots and other required materials. While the storm prevented 134
polling stations from opening, this amounted to only 4% of polling
stations and less than 1% of eligible voters.


4. (SBU) OSCE's Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
Election Observation Mission (ODIHR EOM) gave a positive preliminary
assessment on March 23, though its report cited instances of family
and group voting and repeated ODIHR's concerns about intimidation
(chiefly by the ruling VMRO, though it did not say this directly) of
civil servants to support VMRO candidates and to deliver even more
votes to them. Nevertheless, EOM Head of Mission Peter Eicher

(former U.S. FSO) called these elections a "major step forward."
The biggest losers in the election, opposition parties SDSM and DPA,
complained that while the voting was generally free and fair,
intimidation and control of the institutions gave an unfair
advantage to VMRO and its e-Albanian coalition partner, DUI.


5. (U) Embassy and other international and domestic observers
reported virtually none of the major problems from last year:
gunfights, clear intimidation in polling stations by party
"observers" and activists, menacing gatherings of young men just
outside polling stations, ballot-stuffing, etc. The GoM deployed
significant police presence, especially in the predominantly
e-Albanian municipalities. While many units were from other areas,
they were also mixed ethnically. The police were calm and
professional. Most e-Albanians seemed relatively unconcerned with
the police presence or even welcomed it. We were present in only
one polling station where a party observer (from DPA) objected to
the police, but he was far more sanguine when we checked into the
same polling station some hours later.

Some Problems Persist
--------------


6. (SBU) A number of our monitors as well as ODIHR's witnessed a
troubling trend of "assisted voting" clearly organized by the
political parties. Party activists would lead groups of
"illiterate" or elderly voters into polling stations and "assist"
them in marking their ballots. Election officials rarely challenged
this, even though the rules state that any one person can only
assist a maximum of two others to vote. We will raise this issue
with the parties and election officials. ODIHR officials told us
privately that while this is disturbing, it will not likely lead to
a "failing grade" in its final assessment. It will, however, almost
certainly be an issue ODIHR will raise prominently in its report.
Nevertheless, all observers credit the authorities here for running
a much smoother process than last time. In 2008, parties and
others, including the U.S. Embassy, filed hundreds of formal
complaints with the State Election Commission which resulted in
re-runs in 196 polling stations. For the first round this year,
only 65 complaints were filed; we anticipate few if any re-runs this
time.

Ivanov: Ready or Not...
--------------

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7. (U) George Ivanov, the ruling VMRO-DPMNE's candidate (ref a),
appears poised to claim an easy victory in the second round,
scheduled for April 5. Ivanov trounced the field, garnering 34% of
the nearly one million votes cast. His nearest rival and
second-round opponent, Ljubomir Frckoski, claimed 20%. New
Democracy party chief Imer Selmani essentially tied for third with
former VMRO Interior Minister (and ICTY-indictee, since acquitted)
Ljube Boskovski, both winning about 14% of the vote. SDSM
Secretary-General Igor Ivanovski hypothesized to us March 25 that
every vote for another candidate was a vote against Ivanov, thus
Frckoski has a chance in the second round. We believe it is
unlikely that Frckoski will pick up enough new votes to prevail.


8. (U) All that can stop Ivanov, it appears, is if the second round
fails to meet the 40% threshold requirement; the threshold can be
daunting due to the bloated voter list, with 1.8 million voters
(Macedonia's population is less than 2.1 million). There is concern
that Macedonia's e-Albanian population, which comprises at least 25%
of the population, is uninspired by either candidate and may stay
home, thus making it harder to reach the threshold. VMRO will
likely press DUI to deliver e-Albanian votes to Ivanov, but this
will be a tough sell.

The Selmani Effect?
--------------


9. (SBU) Estimates vary, but Selmani likely garnered the votes of at
least 50,000 ethnic Macedonians, a first for any e-Albanian
candidate. He worked hard to win the trust of e-Macedonians,
posting campaign signs in the Macedonian language in selected areas
and holding well-attended rallies in cities like Stip and Strumica,
where few e-Albanians reside. He also speaks fluent, educated
Macedonian. Many politicians, including President Crvenkovski in a
March 24 conversation with the Ambassador, noted the significance of
Selmani's achievement and suggested this could be the beginning of a
new dynamic in Macedonian politics.

Local Elections: VMRO and DUI Dominate
--------------


10. (U) VMRO was a big winner in local elections as well, winning 24
of Macedonia's 85 municipalities outright, and taking a commanding
lead in many more. SDSM did manage to hang onto their strongholds
in Strumica and Kumanovo, but overall had considerably weaker
results in its heartland in the south and east. After the second
round, a number of eastern cities may be led by VMRO mayors for the
first time since Macedonian independence.


11. (U) In Macedonia's predominantly e-Albanian areas, DUI generally
dominated, winning five municipalities outright and taking a strong
lead in many others. Selmani's New Democracy party did not fare
well and will likely win no municipalities, yet ND MP Suleiman
Rushiti told us he is still optimistic in Aracinovo and Lipkovo.
The major battles in the second round will be in Tetovo, a dead heat
between DUI and DPA, and perhaps in Gostivar, where independent and
former mayor Rufi Osmani took a commanding first-round lead over DUI
incumbent mayor Nevzat Bejta but could not quite reach the 50%
needed to wrap it up. Rushiti told us that Osmani - his cousin - is
concerned since he has spent his entire war chest and has nothing
left for between-round campaigning.


12. (SBU) Osmani should win in Gostivar easily on April 5, but the
personal animosity between him and Bejta as well as DUI leader Ali
Ahmeti's own concern that Osmani will also seek to overtake him as
Macedonia's leading e-Albanian politician could tempt DUI to seek to
"win" by other means: intimidation and major ballot-stuffing. We
intend to monitor Tetovo and Gostivar very closely, and expect ODIHR
to do the same. Ambassador Reeker will also visit Gostivar, Tetovo,
Ohrid, and Struga to meet the mayoral candidates, just as he did
before the first round.


13. (U) Struga, a municipality of mixed ethnicity on Lake Ohrid,
will also likely be a close contest between DUI incumbent Ramiz
Merko and wealthy Torbeshi (Muslim of Macedonian ethnicity) Fijat
Canoski. The municipality of Ohrid is also a close race between
SDSM incumbent Aleksander Petreski and VMRO candidate Kiril
Trendafilov-Nance. Ohrid is a popular regional tourist destination
and summer holiday spot and to many the "Jerusalem" of Macedonian
Orthodoxy; VMRO would dearly love to take it back.

Comment: No More Excuses
--------------


14. (SBU) Should GoM authorities be able to pull off another
peaceful round of elections on April 5 with minimal irregularities,
this will largely remove the shadow of the 2008 debacle and,
frankly, give Greece and other critics less ammunition to aim at
Macedonia. But the election results will also mean a further
consolidation of power by Gruevski and VMRO. With no elections

SKOPJE 00000136 003 OF 003


scheduled until 2012, he and his party will be more or less free to
do as they wish. On the other hand, they will shoulder an even
greater share of responsibility for Macedonia's progress, and there
will no longer be any excuse for not pursuing an agreement with
Greece on the name issue and the key reforms necessary for EU
accession. VMRO's true agenda will be evident within months.

REEKER