Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09SKOPJE124
2009-03-19 16:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN GENERALLY POSITIVE

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM MK 
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PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0124/01 0781626
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191626Z MAR 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8110
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0497
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000124 

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN GENERALLY POSITIVE

Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000124

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN GENERALLY POSITIVE

Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary. The campaign for presidential and municipal
elections has proceeded far better than parliamentary elections last
year. Should the trend continue, we assess that the conduct of
these elections should advance Macedonia's Euro-Atlantic
aspirations. There are some municipalities of concern -- especially
Gostivar, Struga, and Strumica. The ruling VMRO party's
presidential candidate, Georgi Ivanov, is still the clear
front-runner. VMRO and its ethnic Albanian coalition partner DUI
look poised to hold onto control in their municipalities and perhaps
to gain, especially VMRO. (DUI already controls nearly all
predominantly ethnic Albanian municipalities.) The Ambassador and
Embassy staff have carried out extensive outreach; by election day
(first round) on March 22, we will have met mayoral candidates
throughout the country. End summary.

So Far, Better...
--------------


2. (SBU) The consensus of the international community -- including
ODIHR's observation mission -- is that in general there is no
comparison between the violent and bitter atmosphere in the 2008
elections and the current campaign. The Mayor of Tetovo, Hazbi
Lika, told us recently that prior to June 2008 elections citizens
were afraid to be out after dark for fear of roving gangs of party
"activists." This time there is no such problem. Our visits to
Tetovo and many other municipalities confirm this. As we approach
the end of the campaign it appears to be calm and orderly thus far.
Many Macedonian contacts assert that this is chiefly -- though not
solely -- due to concerted international pressure on both the GoM
and the political parties to conduct better elections. There is
widespread understanding that last year's failure harmed Macedonia
as a whole.

...But Not Perfect
--------------


3. (SBU) There are still areas for concern. Both of ODIHR's
preliminary reports and our own contact with local sources suggest
that intimidation -- in particular of civil servants to vote for the
ruling VMRO (and likely DUI) and to deliver 20, 50, even 100 other
votes -- is a real concern. Indeed, Darko Aleksov, head of the
respected local monitoring organization MOST, told us March 16 that

thus far the elections are "Switzerland compared to 2008, but we're
far from the quality of 2006 parliamentary elections, primarily
because of intimidation." At the private urging of the
international community, PM Gruevski made a public statement on
March 17 condemning political intimidation. We have asked President
Crvenkovski, who is not running for reelection, to do the same.

Hot Spots? Gostivar, Struga, Strumica
--------------


4. (SBU) Additionally, the municipalities of Gostivar, Struga, and
Strumica feature white-hot mayoral races with genuine bitterness
among the candidates and their supporters. These areas will require
special attention to ensure a calm end to the campaign and a quiet
election day (in the case of Gostivar and Struga, for both rounds;
the race in Strumica should be decided in the first round as there
are only two mayoral candidates there). As for the municipal races
overall, we expect the ruling coalition parties of VMRO and DUI to
do quite well (see ref a).

Presidential Race: Ivanov Versus....
--------------


5. (SBU) The presidential race has been generally well-run, with six
of the seven candidates twice meeting for public restaurant meals to
reaffirm their commitment to free and fair elections. (DPA
candidate Mirushe Hoxha missed both events for unconvincing
reasons.) VMRO candidate Georgi Ivanov appears to be maintaining
his front-runner status, but some party leaders have privately
admitted to us that he has been a disappointing candidate. Ivanov
has skipped several candidate debates and has made some inane public
comments, yet no one believes he can be beaten: the VMRO machine
behind him is just too strong. The real parlor game has been to try
to pick which of the other six candidates will make it to the second
round to square off one-on-one against Ivanov. Three of these --
SDSM's Ljubomir Frckoski, former VMRO Ljube Boskovski, and ND's
Selmani -- all seem to have a realistic shot. Some contacts have
speculated that all three possibilities -- but especially an
Ivanov-Boskovski race -- run the real risk of producing a turnout of
less than 40% in the second round, which would thus invalidate the
presidential election and require the whole process to start all
over again with selection of candidates.

Ambassador Outreach: What a Long
Strange Trip It's Been
--------------


SKOPJE 00000124 002 OF 003



6. (SBU) Over the past weeks and right up to Election Day, the
Ambassador has been continuing his outreach throughout Macedonia to
meet with the mayoral candidates and Municipal Election Council
heads to deliver "on behalf of President Obama and Secretary
Clinton" a message of support for free, fair, and peaceful municipal
and presidential elections. We specifically focused on
municipalities that have had problems in past elections --
especially the flawed parliamentary elections in June 2008 -- and
where we expect hotly contested races this time. This resulted in
proportionally higher visits to predominantly ethnic Albanian areas,
a point noted by some press but not seen as problematic since the
inhabitants and candidates seemed to appreciate the extra attention
from the Embassy. Macedonian contacts both inside and outside of
the government have also expressed appreciation for the Embassy's
very active engagement ahead of the elections. The Ambassador held
private, joint meetings with the candidates and asked them to make
joint public commitments to the National Democratic Institute's Code
of Conduct. All told, he will have met candidates in Zhelino,
Tetovo, Bogovinje, Gostivar, Debar, Struga, Ohrid, Veles, Tearce,
Stip, Strumica, Aracinovo, Lipkovo, Kumanovo, and the Skopje
municipalities of Cair and Saraj. At each stop he made clear that
the behavior of the candidates and their supporters during the
election process will determine the Ambassador's and the U.S.
Embassy's view of them and their parties, and promised follow-up
meetings after good elections, noting that in each group, one will
emerge as mayor and the others will be important community leaders.
Embassy staff have made similar outreach efforts in several other
municipalities. The Ambassador sent follow up letters to reiterate
key points.


7. (SBU) In Tetovo March 4 the Ambassador held a joint meeting with
DUI party leader Ali Ahmeti and presidential candidate Agron Buxhaku
as well as New Democracy (ND) party leader and presidential
candidate Imer Selmani. DPA party leader Menduh Thaci refused to
attend this meeting on the grounds that he could not be seen by his
party to legitimize Imer Selmani's ND, so the Ambassador held a
separate meeting with Thaci and DPA's presidential candidate,
Mirushe Hoxha. All the leaders and presidential candidates agreed
that free and fair elections are critical to Macedonia's future and
made commitments to the press following the meetings. Thaci was
ultimately forced to defend his decision to not participate in the
meeting with Ahmeti and Selmani to the press but did so without
being overly provocative or divisive, stating that he wants his
party "to play the role of a fair opposition" and felt he could not
meet with the other leaders and effectively convey that stance.


8. (SBU) In nearly all predominantly ethnic Albanian municipalities
the candidates expressed appreciation for U.S. and other
international intervention and attention, pledged free and fair
elections, and made a generally good show before the television
cameras. Several DPA candidates expressed some frustration that
their campaign posters had been torn down (mostly, they claim, by
DUI). Since DUI already controls most of these municipalities, its
candidates tended to take in the criticism but not to respond,
apparently confident in their chances on election day.


9. (SBU) In Gostivar, Independent candidate (and former mayor) Rufi
Osmani was more forceful, voicing strong concerns about DUI
candidate and incumbent Nevzat Bejta's close ties to members of the
State Election Commission, Municipal Election Commission, and the
Gostivar Chief of Police, and the heavy bias it creates in Bejta's
favor. The dislike between the two candidates was evident. We have
since received numerous, vociferous complaints and expressions of
concern about the campaign in Gostivar, especially from Osmani's
supporters. We plan to travel to Gostivar again before election day
to assess the situation and -- we hope --calm any tensions.


10. (SBU) The atmosphere in Struga, which the Ambassador visited
March 9, was already tense. Struga's mayoral race is wide open and
is the only municipal race in Macedonia that is considered a toss up
between all the candidates, ethnic Albanian and ethnic Macedonian
alike. In the meeting the candidates openly exchanged accusations
pertaining to the ethnic make-up of the Local Election Boards,
recent inter-ethnic problems in the local schools and recent dirty
campaigning by party activists. No individual candidate was singled
out by the accusations or excluded from them.


11. (SBU) In Ohrid and Veles the candidates exchanged some playful
barbs but appeared to mutually respect one another. In both
municipalities the hot topic was the lack of municipal funding and
decentralization.


12. (SBU) The Ambassador visited the predominantly ethnic Albanian
Skopje municipalities of Cair and Saraj on March 11. While the
mayoral candidates agreed to the necessity of free and fair
elections and agreed to this before the cameras, tangible tension
was already apparent in both municipalities. In Cair the challenger
from New Democracy was the most outspoken candidate, voicing
complaints over DUI monopolizing free billboard space with its
campaign materials and alleging that their campaign headquarters had
been receiving threats. The candidates from DPA and the Democratic

SKOPJE 00000124 003 OF 003


Party of the Turks also noted inequities in the level of campaign
resources DUI had at its disposal compared to the other parties.
The concerns regarding billboard space culminated in a heated
exchange between the ND candidate, the incumbent DUI candidate, and
the MEC president towards the end of the meeting.


13. (SBU) In Saraj the candidates of DPA, DUI and ND (all considered
contenders) were generally respectful of one another. However, the
DPA candidate and DUI candidate (currently an MP) had a brief but
lively exchange over DPA's allegations of celebratory gunfire at DUI
rallies. The live wire in Saraj was long shot PDP candidate Naser
Hamiti who made a blanket allegation against all three of the other
parties represented over harassment and intimidation of voters in
previous elections. He alleged that as much as 55% of Saraj's
electorate had abstained from previous elections out of fear and
would be equally afraid to vote in these elections. (Note- While
there was substantial evidence of voter intimidation occurring in
Saraj during previous elections Hamiti's allegations are grossly
exaggerated and are more an indication of his party's desperate
situation than actual conditions.) On March 15, the Ambassador
attended an NDI-organized round-robin soccer match among DUI, ND,
and DPA candidates and supporters. Though a soccer match took place
between SDSM and VMRO prior to the 2008 parliamentary elections,
such a match between Albanian parties is new.


14. (SBU) In a March 13 meeting, the mayoral candidates in Aracinovo
-- the predominantly ethnic Albanian municipality near Skopje where
a person was killed in election violence in 2008 -- all pledged
their commitment to free, fair, and peaceful elections. DPA's
candidate complained that DUI has torn 500 of his posters and that
he may not even bother putting up more. However, he continued, DPA
leader Thaci has sent down clear orders that DPA will not respond to
or carry out any "provocations."


15. (SBU) In Lipkovo, also on March 13, DUI, DPA, and ND candidates
told the Ambassador over a convivial lunch that they have agreed to
their own code of conduct for the election campaign. This was one
of the few meetings where a candidate did not complain about posters
being pulled down, though the ND and DPA candidates did express
concern that the DUI campaign HQ was only 50 meters away from a
polling station. The MEC deputy chairman confirmed that under the
election law DUI would be required to remove all campaign posters
from the HQ's exterior on election day.


16. (SBU) Finally, in Kumanovo, SDSM Mayor Zoran Damjanovski
orchestrated not only a chummy coffee at a local eatery but also a
very public stroll through the city's downtown with him plus all six
other candidates. At an NDI public forum at which the Ambassador
spoke, the candidates all sat front and center and gave their
personal pledge for an honorable campaign.

Comment: Cautiously Optimistic
--------------


17. (SBU) While we are by no means out of the woods yet, the
consensus among all parties, the press, and the international
community is that the election campaign -- while hardly perfect --
is a significant improvement over last year. Even if this holds
true on the first election day, the authorities here still face the
major logistical challenge of administering presidential and
municipal elections simultaneously, the first time this has been
done here. Scenes of chaos at polling stations -- not caused by
thuggery but simply incompetence -- would not present a pretty
picture here. Nonetheless, our pre-election assessment is that
conditions are in place for successful elections.

REEKER