Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09SKOPJE109
2009-03-09 14:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: MAYORAL AND MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS NOT

Tags:  PREL PGOV MK 
pdf how-to read a cable
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 091438Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8092
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 0490
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 SKOPJE 000109 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: MAYORAL AND MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS NOT
TAKING BACKSEAT TO PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Classified By: AMBASSADOR PHILIP REEKER FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) and (d).

Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 SKOPJE 000109

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: MAYORAL AND MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS NOT
TAKING BACKSEAT TO PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Classified By: AMBASSADOR PHILIP REEKER FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) As Macedonia holds its first combined presidential
and local elections in March/April (first round March 22,
second round April 5),key local races are as much in the
spotlight as the presidential race. In some cases,
better-known political names will be found on mayoral ballots
than in the presidential contest. The ruling VMRO-DPMNE is
committed to complementing its solid majority in parliament
with mayoral wins in what are traditionally opposition
strongholds. The party has placed five of its 53 Members of
Parliament in mayoral races around the country; in at least
one case, the parliamentarian is less-than-enthusiastic about
being sidelined and shifted into local politics by PM
Gruevski. As VMRO brings out its big names in effort to gain
new ground in mayoral and municipal council elections,
opposition SDSM, still reeling from its poor performance in
2006 and 2008 parliamentary elections, can only hope its
incumbent mayoral candidates hold onto their seats.


2. (C) Meanwhile, ethnic Albanian parties are in the middle
of a power shuffle, with new-kid-in-town New Democracy (ND),
polling the highest of the ethnic-Albanian parties in the
presidential race, and also likely to perform well in local
races in Skopje,s Saraj and Cair municipalities, as well as
in Struga and Debar in southwestern Macedonia. Opposition
ethnic Albanian party DPA, like SDSM, is re-grouping after
its poor performance in the 2008 parliamentary elections, and
has set its bar low in the local races, not even running a
candidate for Skopje major so as to focus energies on winning
in Tetovo -- a traditional DPA stronghold.


3. (C) Reminding us that Macedonia is multi- not bi-ethnic,
Turkish and Roma ethnic parties also expect to hold onto
three mayoral seats, and ethnic Turkish candidates are hoping
to make gains in other small municipalities. Though not the
most interesting or contentious of the local races, the
Skopje mayor and municipal council races serve as the
ultimate ranking poll -- with more than one third of the
country's population on the Skopje voting registers,

opposition political parties are largely abandoning
traditional allies and running their own mayoral candidates
and municipal council lists, in an effort to get a read on
where their own party names can take them. End Summary.

Not Giving an Inch: Municipalities where VMRO is Playing Real
Hardball
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Following the huge gains in the 2008 parliamentary
elections, VMRO-DPMNE leaders did not rest on their laurels
or ignore opinion polls for a moment, with their sights set
on solidifying their hold on power at all levels. VMRO is
now determined to see its national-level gains played out on
the local level, bringing out well-known MPs for the mayoral
elections. SDSM, weakened by a leadership vacuum and poor
performances in 2006 and 2008 parliamentary elections, is not
confident it can gain any new mayoral slots, but hopes its
incumbents can hold onto their seats in traditional SDSM
strongholds.


5. (C) The race for Strumica mayor tops the list of VMRO
"grudge matches." A longtime stronghold of rival SDSM, the
incumbent in the Strumica mayor race is SDSM,s interim
President, Zoran Zaev. Zaev was the subject of a
Presidential pardon in August (reftel),after his party
walked out of Parliament calling corruption charges against
him (and a well-choreographed "perp walk")
politically-motivated. Since the pardon, Zaev has told us
that "partisan investigations" in Strumica continue,
describing a recent case of a busload of auditors arriving in
Strumica in the early morning hours, after an overnight bus
ride, tasked with finding cases of tax evasion in the local
enterprises. Running against Zaev is VMRO MP Silvana
Boneva. Boneva is well-respected by the international
community as a moderate VMRO voice, a position that,s not
brought her popularity within her own party. Sidelined by
Gruevski in the 2008 parliamentary race, most assume Boneva
is being forced to run for the mayoral slot by Gruevski,
which either gets her out of his hair and the parliament with
a win in Strumica, or knocks her down a peg if she loses.
Boneva may be energized in the Strumica race by her very
strong dislike for Zaev. A red-faced rant about Zaev marked
her introductory meeting with P/E Chief last summer. Not
that the race needs any more color, but the official campaign
season starts on the heels of Strumica carnival, the

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best-known carnival in the region, where politically-themed
costumes and floats will likely reach new heights.


6. (C) VMRO is also going all-out to win in Kumanovo, the
largest single municipality in Macedonia, with more than
90,000 voters and a traditional SDSM stronghold. (Skopje
itself is actually broken into ten municipalities.) The
VMRO candidate is another MP, Petar Pop Arsov, running
against SDSM incumbent Zoran Damjanovksi. Damjanovski told
the Ambassador about politically-motivated investigations of
public enterprises in Kumanovo, similar to those Zaev
complained of in Strumica. He said that partisan politics
keep his municipality "under permanent inspection."


7. (C) The mayor,s race in Veles is another in which VMRO
seeks to oust an opposition incumbent, in this case Ace
Kocevski of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),who is be
supported by traditional partner SDSM. VMRO is sending
another MP in to battle for a mayoral seat: Goran Petrov,
former President of the VMRO branch in Veles. VMRO faces
challenges to oust this popular mayor -- known for his
open-office, customer service-oriented style of governing.
Kocevksi has excelled in gaining funding from the
international community for projects in Veles, and these
projects -- ranging from arts to infrastructure -- are
considered models for other jurisdictions.


8. (C) In contrast to VMRO,s strategy, SDSM is not
bringing out its biggest names in order to gain its
most-wanted municipalities. Macedonia,s second largest city
-- Bitola -- was long an SDSM stronghold, but is now
governed by a VMRO mayor, Vladimir Taleski, a former actor.
SDSM seems to be counting on local, rather than national,
name recognition and popularity in this race, running a local
doctor, Dijana Georgievska, for this much-prized mayoral
race. SDSM President Zaev told us that he is "very
optimistic" about SDSM's chances in the local races. "Very
optimistic" equates to an expectation that they will win
about 20 of the 30 municipalities in which they currently
hold mayoral seats. Zaev tells us that with previous
pollings looking as grim as SDSM winning only five or six
municipalities, he may take on President Crvenkovski (who has
made no secret of his plans to take over SDSM leadership at
the end of his presidential term) for leadership of the party
in a congress later this year if SDSM wins 20 to 30 mayoral
races.


Struga: Where Inter-Ethnic Issues Dominate
--------------


9. (C) The city of Struga, with a 57% - 32% split of ethnic
Albanians and ethnic Macedonians, and the site of an ongoing
school segregation controversy that has taken on national
significance, is likely the only municipality where the
mayor,s seat could go to a party of either ethnicity.
Parties on both sides of the ethnic divide sought deals ahead
of the elections in order to boost chances their ethnicity.
But the VMRO-SDSM deal to support a single eMacedonian
candidate broke down, as did the deal between eAlbanian
parties DUI and New Democracy (ND). Thus, incumbent DUI
Mayor Ramiz Merko faces his main eAlbanian challenge from New
Democracy (ND) candidate Xhevdet Nasufi. If they split the
eAlbanian vote, or voters blame Merko for the troubled
situation in the Struga schools, an ethnic Macedonian could
take over the mayor,s office. VMRO,s candidate, Slavko
Koteski is a lawyer and president of the local VMRO branch.
But SDSM is not supporting the eMacedonian candidate, instead
saying they will back a candidate who could either complicate
or possibly calm matters in Struga -- MP Fijat Canovski of
the Party for European Future (PEI). Canovski is a
"Torbeshi" -- a Macedonian Muslim -- with linguistic ties to
the eMacedonian community and religious ties to the eAlbanian
community. A wealthy businessman and owner/president of a
large private university in Skopje, some of Canovski,s local
popularity is linked to generous scholarship funds for
students from the Struga area. If he gets through the first
round of the mayor,s race, he told PolOff, he expects to
move easily to victory in the second round, as he believes
eMacedonians would support him against an eAlbanian candidate
and vice versa.

Heated Competition in the Most Important Ethnic Albanian
Communities
-------------- --------------


10. (C) The ethnic-Albanian party leaders have generally
conveyed positive messages about the need for free and fair

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elections, and the parties have made public efforts to show
good will between one another. However, behind the scenes
the parties have been quick to launch allegations against
opposing e-Albanian parties. DPA leader Menduh Thaci vowed
to use these elections to exact revenge against DUI , who he
claims unjustly pinned the bulk of the blame for violence and
intimidation in the 2008 parliamentary elections on him and
his party. Thaci tells us, though, that he intends to exact
that revenge by publicly exposing DUI for its election
meddling rather than through violence. Thaci claims the most
important thing for his party during this election is to
reestablish itself as a credible opposition party, and so it
cannot afford to engage in any illicit activities. The
emergence of New Democracy (ND) adds an additional element of
concern to the elections. DPA and DUI have both alleged that
ND received a number of former DPA trouble makers and could
instigate problems during the elections.


11. (C) Tetovo -- Macedonia,s largest majority e-Albanian
city -- is the most important municipality for e-Albanians
in Macedonia due to its size and proximity to Skopje. DPA
and DUI will focus much of their energy and resources on
securing the mayoral seat there. DUI incumbent Hazbi Lika,
whose popularity has diminished, will be running against the
rector of the State University of Tetovo, Sadi Bexheti, who
has DPA,s endorsement. Thaci has noted that because of the
depleted state of his party following the last elections,
Tetovo is the primary (and possibly the only municipality)
that DPA is truly focused on winning. E-Albanian leaders in
other parties have agreed that DPA,s party survival may in
fact depend on a victory in Tetovo.


12. (C) The municipality of Gostivar could host the dirtiest
mayoral race of the e-Albanian communities. Incumbent DUI
mayor Nevzat Bejta has a reputation for dirty politics and
corruption. His main opponent, Independent candidate Rufi
Osmani, who has formed a reluctant alliance with ND, has
already sought to expose Bejta,s corruption in private
meetings and predicted that intimidation will be the
cornerstone of DUI,s campaign efforts in Gostivar. He
claimed DUI had already started a campaign of menacing phone
calls to voters. Lending additional credit to Osmani,s
concerns, the DUI-leaning municipal election council in
Gostivar rejected Osmani,s candidacy on February 12 due to a
politically-motivated criminal indictment against him ten
years ago for which he later received amnesty. The rejection
was overturned by the administrative court the following day.


13. (C) The municipalities of Debar and Saraj could host
very tight three-way races among DPA, DUI and ND. Debar,s
candidates include dual citizen, e-Albanian
Macedonian-American candidate Dashamir Marku running with the
endorsement of PDP, a notably weaker e-Albanian party. It is
still unclear if the topic of his U.S. citizenship will play
any role in the campaign. ND presidential candidate Imer
Selmani was the mayor of Saraj, but as a member of DPA at the
time. Saraj,s current mayor Bekim Sazliu also defected from
DPA to ND last year but is not running for reelection. ND is
running another DPA defector, Sabahudin Mahmuti, for the
Saraj mayor,s seat. Despite mass defections of DPA
politicians in Saraj, the party still has significant popular
support there. DUI rounds out the competition in Saraj with
popular MP Blerim Bexheti as its mayoral candidate.


14. (C) The municipality of Cair is essentially the urban,
e-Albanian stronghold of Skopje as well as home to the
national headquarters of New Democracy. The most violent
event of the June 2008 parliamentary elections occurred
there: a shoot-out between DPA and DUI activists, resulting
in one fatality. Bushat Asani, a DPA party activist
implicated in the shooting, is now rumored to be the head of
security for ND. ND party leader Selmani denied that Asani
has ever been a member of ND, alleging that Asani has been
trying to "infiltrate" the party for some time. Incumbent
DUI mayor Izet Mexhiti is likely hold on to the office, but
ND is expected to fight hard for control of the important
municipality. Many believed ND,s candidate Fatmir Ademi
would actually be DPA,s mayoral candidate in Cair until he
also very recently crossed over to ND.

Where Smaller Ethnic Parties Will Perform Well
--------------

15. (C) While eAlbanian parties are likely to continue to
dominate in a number of large municipalities, ethnic
micro-parties, representing Turkish and Roma populations, are
also expecting wins in smaller municipalities. These
parties, such as those of the Turks, Roma, Serbs and
Bosniaks, left their traditional alliance with left-leaning

SKOPJE 00000109 004 OF 005


SDSM ahead of the 2008 parliamentary elections, thanks to
fairly generous offers of minister and deputy minister
positions from VMRO (which was interested in securing ethnic
minority votes to satisfy Badinter requirements). Now
ethnic micro-party candidates are counting on voters to have
seen local-level benefits of the new partnership with the
ruling coalition. The Democratic Party of the Turks has
incumbent mayors hoping to retain their seats in the small
western Macedonian municipalities of Centar Zupa and
Plasnica. Representing the largest minority population after
the eAlbanians, eTurkish candidates from two separate parties
are running for mayors in seven municipalities.


16. (C) Shuto Orizari, a Skopje municipality, is 77% Roma,
and despite a party rivalry splitting the Roma population,s
vote , the municipality is governed by a Roma mayor and
majority Roma council. Though incumbent mayor Erduan Iseini
of the United Party for Emancipation is not running for
re-election, the Roma community is almost certain to hold on
to this important mayor seat. Alliance of Roma candidate
Elvis Bajram has the support of VMRO-DPMNE, and will
certainly use that endorsement to assure voters of future
funding and projects for the impoverished municipality.
Perhaps VMRO,s support will allow Bajram, whose father Amdi
Bajram is a member of parliament , to campaign without using
his father,s often maligned tactics. In order to secure his
victory in the 1998 parliamentary elections, businessman Amdi
Bajram was said to have passed out thousands of pairs of
shoes to Shuto Orizari voters. Before the election, voters
received only the left shoe, with the promise that Bajram,s
victory would be celebrated with completion of the pair.

National Politics on a 1/3 Scale -- Skopje
--------------

17. (SBU) Skopje,s 11 mayoral candidates and 18 separate
party lists for municipal council serve as an important
ranking poll for opposition parties to assess their
individual performances outside of coalitions. With 1/3 of
Macedonia's voters in Skopje, these performance meters are
important in a system of fast-shifting alliances. (Note:
while opposition parties struggled to determine where they
might work together, largely choosing not to, VMRO-DPMNE
signed a declaration of unity and partnership with minor
parties from the coalition "For Better Macedonia." End
note.)


18. (C) The Skopje mayoral race has very few
traditionally-allied opposition parties working in coalition
with one another. An exception is SDSM,s support for
coalition-partner NSDP,s candidate Tito Petkovski. A
long-time Parliamentarian and a very close second in the
drawn-out 1999 presidential elections, SDSM saw it wise to
support senior statesman Petkovski while facing its own
leadership vacuum. He faces VMRO,s candidate, Koce
Trajanovski, the popular mayor of the Skopje municipality of
Gazi Baba. But in the Skopje mayoral race, perhaps the best
example of the fast-shifting political alliances is candidate
Lazar Elenovski, who is running under the banner of his
newly-formed party, Social Democratic Union (though basically
translating the same into English as SDSM does, Elenovski,s
party uses a different Macedonian word for "union").
Elenovski is a former Minister of Defense, and former member
of both SDSM and NSDP. With an ethnic Albanian mother and
Macedonian father, Elenovski promises to serve "both sides of
the Vardar River" (meaning both eMacedonian and eAlbanian
populations) if elected mayor, but lack of recognition of and
membership in his new party will certainly hinder his
campaign. Ethnic Albanian parties DUI and ND have
candidates in the Skopje mayor race, unlike DPA who left its
hat out of the ring. Neither party, though, has any
expectation of winning the race, and both continue to focus
on key eAlbanian cities and municipalities.

Comment
--------------

19. (C) In these first-ever jointly administered
presidential and municipal/mayoral elections, local races are
as much in the spotlight as the presidential race. With a
constitutionally weak presidency and a ruling party set on
increasing its influence at the local level and making
headway into traditional opposition strongholds, municipal
races are not taking a backseat to the presidential
elections. Local races heighten the prospects for
irregularities, intimidation and violence by increasing
exponentially the number of individuals and parties who have
something to win or lose. While this pre-campaign season is
off to a relatively smooth start, the international community
will remain vigilant against dirty politics in the local

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races. The Ambassador has begun a series of outreach
meetings to local candidates and municipal electoral
committees (MECs),in which he is calling upon parties,
candidates and election administrators in municipalities
around the country to commit to free and fair campaign and
election without violence or intimidation. End Comment.
REEKER