Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09SINGAPORE1092
2009-11-10 14:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Singapore
Cable title:
DAS MARCIEL DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES, BURMA,
VZCZCXRO4518 OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH DE RUEHGP #1092/01 3141403 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 101403Z NOV 09 FM AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7417 INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3071 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 6019 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001092
SIPDIS
EAP/MTS - D. BISCHOF
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2019
TAGS: PREL SN
SUBJECT: DAS MARCIEL DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES, BURMA,
CHINA WITH PETER HO
Classified By: CDA Daniel Shields for reason 1.4(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001092
SIPDIS
EAP/MTS - D. BISCHOF
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2019
TAGS: PREL SN
SUBJECT: DAS MARCIEL DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES, BURMA,
CHINA WITH PETER HO
Classified By: CDA Daniel Shields for reason 1.4(d)
1.(C) SUMMARY. Singapore,s Permanent Secretary for Foreign
Affairs, Peter Ho, held forth on a wide range of regional
issues during his November 10 lunch with visiting Deputy
Assistant Secretary Scot Marciel. Ho described escalating
tensions between Thailand and Cambodia as putting ASEAN in a
difficult position, with recent developments casting a dark
shadow over Japan,s meeting with ASEAN members last week.
He chastised Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama for continuing
to lack any kind of clarity on his proposed East Asia
Community, and described a growing uneasiness in China
regarding renewed efforts by the United States to engage the
region. DAS Marciel offered Ho a short readout of his trip
to Burma November 3-5 with Assistant Secretary Campbell. End
Summary.
--------------
IMPLICATIONS OF THAI-CAMBODIA ROW
--------------
2. (C) Ho expressed concern that the deteriorating relations
between Thailand and Cambodia would reflect poorly on ASEAN.
While he observed that neither side could claim innocence in
their role in escalating tensions, he said that Cambodia
provoked the most recent round, with Hun Sen,s appointment
of ousted Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra as an economic
advisor. Speculating on Thaksin,s motivations for cozying
up to Hun Sen, Ho suggested that the most obvious
justification was that Thaksin wanted to destabilize Thai
Prime Minister Abhisit,s government by forcing Abhisit to
making a political mistake. Ho questioned whether such a
move advanced Thaksin,s political agenda, or if it was an
act of desperation orchestrated to draw out his time in the
political spotlight. It was clear the end is near for
Thailand,s King, Ho added, and Thaksin was cultivating a
close relationship with the Crown Prince.
3. (C) Ho noted that when Singapore chaired ASEAN in
2007-2008, Ho had tried to establish a contact group to
address the Thai-Cambodian dispute over the Preah Vihear
temple complex. He stated that the Cambodians were amenable
to the proposal, but that the Thais insisted the matter
remain at the bilateral level. Responding to DAS Marciel,s
inquiry as to whether the issue would overshadow the upcoming
U.S.-ASEAN Summit, Ho stated that neither the Thais nor the
Cambodians would take any untoward action immediately
surrounding the meeting. However, he said that the dispute
clouded the ASEAN meeting with the Japanese last week, with
officials from Thailand and Cambodia exchanging barely a word.
--------------
SKEPTICISM ABOUT HATOYAMA,S EAC
--------------
4. (C) Ho relayed that he had participated in Singapore Prime
Minister Lee,s meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama
in Tokyo in October. Ho expressed surprise that even in a
closed door conversation Hatoyama could not elaborate on his
concept of an East Asia Community (EAC). Hatoyama described
the EAC as an open institution that did not exclude the
Untied States, Ho stated. What perplexed Ho was Hatoyama,s
follow-on statement that U.S. participation in the EAC did
not need to be confirmed just yet. Ho interpreted that
qualifier as Hatoyama,s indecision about how, or if, the
United States fit in to his concept of the EAC. He guessed
that Hatoyama wanted to demonstrate a strategic vision that
extended beyond domestic reform in Japan. At the same time,
Ho noted, it appeared that no one had told Hatoyama that the
idea of an EAC was not entirely novel, and that a regional
community was the underlying concept of the East Asian Summit
Plus Three.
--------------
CHINA,s EVOLVING ROLE IN THE REGION
--------------
5. (C) Ho met with senior Chinese officials in Singapore on
November 9 to discuss President Hu Jintao,s upcoming visit
to Singapore. During the meeting, the Chinese made an
explicit point to Ho that China recognized the important role
the United States played in the region, and that it was a
role China respected. Nonetheless, Ho believed that
continued references to the rise of China and potential
negative consequences in the region ) such as ongoing
territorial disputes in the South China Sea - made Chinese
officials uncomfortable. Prior to the ASEAN Plus Three
SINGAPORE 00001092 002 OF 002
meetings in Thailand last month, Ho stated that China
demarched every ASEAN country, urging them not to include the
South China Sea disputes on the meeting agenda. Ho stated
that the Chinese made it very clear they did not want the
South China Sea to be an issue addressed by ASEAN, as China
viewed it as a matter for bilateral discussions.
6. (C) China regarded U.S. reengagement with Burma with a bit
of unease as well, according to Ho. Ho viewed the U.S.
review of its Burma policy, coupled with the announcement of
a new Lower Mekong initiative, as causing China to sense the
limits of its influence in Southeast Asia. Growing
anti-Chinese sentiment in Burma and Vietnam contributed to
this reaction as well, he said.
--------------
BURMA
--------------
7. (C) DAS Marciel recounted his November 3-5 visit to Burma
with Assistant Secretary Campbell. Marciel briefly described
the conversations with Aung San Suu Kyi, in which she had
stated her hope that ASEAN officials would meet with National
League for Democracy (NLD) leaders, thereby sending the
signal that ASEAN considered the NLD to be a legitimate
party. Ho repeated a rumor he had heard following the ASEAN
meetings in Thailand in October that Burma was considering
chairing ASEAN after its elections in 2010. (Note: Burma
passed on its turn to chair ASEAN in 2006, which meant that
it maintained the prerogative to insert itself as chair at
any point. End note.)
--------------
MALAYSIA,S TURBULENT POLITICS
--------------
8. (C) Running through current events among Singapore,s
immediate neighbors, Ho stated that Singapore was watching
political developments in Malaysia very carefully. He cited
the challenges facing Prime Minister Najib as a source of
concern, with the political compact Najib had put in place
seeming to unravel. At the same time, Ho doubted the ability
of Anwar Ibrahim,s coalition to organize a unified
opposition, particularly in light of Anwar,s ongoing trial.
9. (U) DAS Marciel cleared this cable.
SHIELDS
Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm
SIPDIS
EAP/MTS - D. BISCHOF
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2019
TAGS: PREL SN
SUBJECT: DAS MARCIEL DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES, BURMA,
CHINA WITH PETER HO
Classified By: CDA Daniel Shields for reason 1.4(d)
1.(C) SUMMARY. Singapore,s Permanent Secretary for Foreign
Affairs, Peter Ho, held forth on a wide range of regional
issues during his November 10 lunch with visiting Deputy
Assistant Secretary Scot Marciel. Ho described escalating
tensions between Thailand and Cambodia as putting ASEAN in a
difficult position, with recent developments casting a dark
shadow over Japan,s meeting with ASEAN members last week.
He chastised Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama for continuing
to lack any kind of clarity on his proposed East Asia
Community, and described a growing uneasiness in China
regarding renewed efforts by the United States to engage the
region. DAS Marciel offered Ho a short readout of his trip
to Burma November 3-5 with Assistant Secretary Campbell. End
Summary.
--------------
IMPLICATIONS OF THAI-CAMBODIA ROW
--------------
2. (C) Ho expressed concern that the deteriorating relations
between Thailand and Cambodia would reflect poorly on ASEAN.
While he observed that neither side could claim innocence in
their role in escalating tensions, he said that Cambodia
provoked the most recent round, with Hun Sen,s appointment
of ousted Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra as an economic
advisor. Speculating on Thaksin,s motivations for cozying
up to Hun Sen, Ho suggested that the most obvious
justification was that Thaksin wanted to destabilize Thai
Prime Minister Abhisit,s government by forcing Abhisit to
making a political mistake. Ho questioned whether such a
move advanced Thaksin,s political agenda, or if it was an
act of desperation orchestrated to draw out his time in the
political spotlight. It was clear the end is near for
Thailand,s King, Ho added, and Thaksin was cultivating a
close relationship with the Crown Prince.
3. (C) Ho noted that when Singapore chaired ASEAN in
2007-2008, Ho had tried to establish a contact group to
address the Thai-Cambodian dispute over the Preah Vihear
temple complex. He stated that the Cambodians were amenable
to the proposal, but that the Thais insisted the matter
remain at the bilateral level. Responding to DAS Marciel,s
inquiry as to whether the issue would overshadow the upcoming
U.S.-ASEAN Summit, Ho stated that neither the Thais nor the
Cambodians would take any untoward action immediately
surrounding the meeting. However, he said that the dispute
clouded the ASEAN meeting with the Japanese last week, with
officials from Thailand and Cambodia exchanging barely a word.
--------------
SKEPTICISM ABOUT HATOYAMA,S EAC
--------------
4. (C) Ho relayed that he had participated in Singapore Prime
Minister Lee,s meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama
in Tokyo in October. Ho expressed surprise that even in a
closed door conversation Hatoyama could not elaborate on his
concept of an East Asia Community (EAC). Hatoyama described
the EAC as an open institution that did not exclude the
Untied States, Ho stated. What perplexed Ho was Hatoyama,s
follow-on statement that U.S. participation in the EAC did
not need to be confirmed just yet. Ho interpreted that
qualifier as Hatoyama,s indecision about how, or if, the
United States fit in to his concept of the EAC. He guessed
that Hatoyama wanted to demonstrate a strategic vision that
extended beyond domestic reform in Japan. At the same time,
Ho noted, it appeared that no one had told Hatoyama that the
idea of an EAC was not entirely novel, and that a regional
community was the underlying concept of the East Asian Summit
Plus Three.
--------------
CHINA,s EVOLVING ROLE IN THE REGION
--------------
5. (C) Ho met with senior Chinese officials in Singapore on
November 9 to discuss President Hu Jintao,s upcoming visit
to Singapore. During the meeting, the Chinese made an
explicit point to Ho that China recognized the important role
the United States played in the region, and that it was a
role China respected. Nonetheless, Ho believed that
continued references to the rise of China and potential
negative consequences in the region ) such as ongoing
territorial disputes in the South China Sea - made Chinese
officials uncomfortable. Prior to the ASEAN Plus Three
SINGAPORE 00001092 002 OF 002
meetings in Thailand last month, Ho stated that China
demarched every ASEAN country, urging them not to include the
South China Sea disputes on the meeting agenda. Ho stated
that the Chinese made it very clear they did not want the
South China Sea to be an issue addressed by ASEAN, as China
viewed it as a matter for bilateral discussions.
6. (C) China regarded U.S. reengagement with Burma with a bit
of unease as well, according to Ho. Ho viewed the U.S.
review of its Burma policy, coupled with the announcement of
a new Lower Mekong initiative, as causing China to sense the
limits of its influence in Southeast Asia. Growing
anti-Chinese sentiment in Burma and Vietnam contributed to
this reaction as well, he said.
--------------
BURMA
--------------
7. (C) DAS Marciel recounted his November 3-5 visit to Burma
with Assistant Secretary Campbell. Marciel briefly described
the conversations with Aung San Suu Kyi, in which she had
stated her hope that ASEAN officials would meet with National
League for Democracy (NLD) leaders, thereby sending the
signal that ASEAN considered the NLD to be a legitimate
party. Ho repeated a rumor he had heard following the ASEAN
meetings in Thailand in October that Burma was considering
chairing ASEAN after its elections in 2010. (Note: Burma
passed on its turn to chair ASEAN in 2006, which meant that
it maintained the prerogative to insert itself as chair at
any point. End note.)
--------------
MALAYSIA,S TURBULENT POLITICS
--------------
8. (C) Running through current events among Singapore,s
immediate neighbors, Ho stated that Singapore was watching
political developments in Malaysia very carefully. He cited
the challenges facing Prime Minister Najib as a source of
concern, with the political compact Najib had put in place
seeming to unravel. At the same time, Ho doubted the ability
of Anwar Ibrahim,s coalition to organize a unified
opposition, particularly in light of Anwar,s ongoing trial.
9. (U) DAS Marciel cleared this cable.
SHIELDS
Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm