EXPECTATIONS FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA AND THE FUTURE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 SHANGHAI 000041

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM, EAP/FO
TREASURY FOR AMB HOLMER, WRIGHT, TSMITH, AND
OASIA - DOHNER, HAARSAGER, CUSHMAN
U.S.DOC FOR ITA MAC DAS KASOFF, MELCHER, SZYMANSKI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/21/2034
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EFIN ETRD CH PHUM PINR TW
SUBJECT: EXPECTATIONS FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA AND THE FUTURE OF
U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS: VIEWS OF SHANGHAI SCHOLARS

REF: 08 SHANGHAI 533

CLASSIFIED BY: Beatrice Camp, Consul General, U.S. Consulate,
Shanghai, U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Shanghai scholars view U.S.-China relations the
past eight years in a positive light and do not expect big
changes under President Obama, though they admit they know
little about the new President. They emphasize the need for
bilateral cooperation on the global financial crisis but fear
that President Obama and a Democratic Congress will enact
protectionist measures. Human rights activists may use several
anniversaries in 2009 to criticize China, potentially hurting
bilateral relations, they say. Some caution against an
Obama-Dalai Lama meeting before the new President establishes
relations with China's leaders. Most scholars envision a
"win-win-win" scenario in U.S.-China-Taiwan relations. There
are many other international issues that require cooperation
between the United States and China in the years to come,
including anti-terrorism, nonproliferation, energy, and the
environment, the scholars say. End summary.


2. (U) Poloff met with Shanghai scholars in January 2009 to
discuss their impressions of the past eight years and
expectations for U.S.-China relations under the Obama
Administration. For a complete list of interlocutors, see
appendix below.

Reflections on Bush
--------------

3. (C) Shanghai scholars generally view U.S.-China relations
during the past eight years in a positive light. Although the
United States and China did not agree on all issues, such as
human rights, President Bush "did his best" to keep the
relationship stable, said Shen Dingli, Director of the Center
for American Studies at Fudan University. Lin Gang, Professor
of Political Science at Shanghai Jiaotong University, thinks the
issues confronting both countries have become more complex in
recent years, causing bilateral disputes in some areas but also
creating opportunities for unprecedented cooperation. He
believes the Bush Administration was successful in utilizing
various channels of communication (e.g., direct hotline between
Presidents Bush and Hu, Strategic Economic Dialogue, etc.) to
strengthen bilateral cooperation.


4. (C) Although the Chinese Government may be sad to see
President Bush go, the Chinese public has mixed feelings about
him, said several scholars. Ding Xinghao, President of the
Shanghai Association of American Studies, believes the Chinese
public likes President Bush "from a selfish perspective" because
he focused attention on improving relations with China.
However, the Chinese people also see President Bush's China
policy as his only foreign policy success, said Ding. Shen
Dingli agrees that there is a gap in perception towards
President Bush between the Chinese Government and Chinese
public. The Chinese public, however, was impressed by Bush's
"open" and easygoing style during the Olympics, as television
cameras captured him interacting with athletes and "sitting
among commoners" during several Olympic events, said Zhu
Mingquan, Professor in the Department of International Politics
at Fudan University. Zhu noted that President Hu and his wife
were seen sitting among the crowd during another sporting event
soon afterwards, perhaps having learned something from President
Bush.

Looking Ahead: Expectations for President Obama
-------------- --------------

5. (C) The scholars do not expect major changes in U.S.-China
relations under President Obama. Zhu Mingquan thinks U.S.-China
relations have overcome many ups and downs over the past 30
years and will likely overcome other near-term challenges. Lin
Gang believes the new administration will not look upon China as

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an "enemy" as he believes President Bush did when he first took
office. Lin cautioned that "if you think of China as an enemy,
China will become an enemy," but he believes President Obama,
like President Bush, will adopt a pragmatic approach towards
China. Shen Dingli, however, thinks the real test for bilateral
relations will come in the first six months, when both sides
attempt to build rapport. The Chinese Government does not
expect relations to be "as bad as the start of the Bush years"
but is uncertain whether it will be as good as the end of
President Bush's term. It is thus imperative that President
Obama establish good relations with China's leaders from the
outset, said Shen.


6. (C) Pan Rui, Professor in the Center for American Studies at
Fudan University, said President Obama will improve America's
soft power and image overseas, but regarding policy, he asked
rhetorically, "Bush was ABC (Anything But Clinton),so will
Obama be ABB (Anything But Bush)?" He speculated that this will
not happen, particularly in regards to U.S. policy towards China
as many of President Obama's foreign policy advisors are "old
China hands" from the Clinton years and many Democrats and
Republicans in Washington share the view that President Bush's
China policy was "one of his few successes." Wu Xinbo, Deputy
Director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University,
similarly believes President Obama and his advisors have a "full
picture" of U.S.-China relations and will thus adopt a "balanced
approach," cognizant that the relationship cannot be defined by
any single issue but must be viewed within a "multidimensional
prism."

Just Who is Obama?
--------------

7. (C) The scholars appear familiar with the people surrounding
President Obama, but admit that they know little about the new
President himself. Zhuang Jianzhong, Professor in the Center
for National Strategic Studies at Shanghai Jiaotong University,
said he has no strong personal impressions of President Obama
but that he seems "reasonable" and "looks like he's in good
shape" (referring to photos recently circulating over the
Internet of then President-elect Obama swimming in Hawaii).
There was general excitement, even in China, over Obama's
election, but "if you sit back and think about it, I'm really
not sure what kind of person he is," said Ding Xinghao. Several
scholars agreed that most Chinese only have "superficial"
knowledge about the new President of the United States.


8. (C) The scholars raised concerns about what they perceive as
President Obama's lack of experience in foreign policy,
particularly regarding China. Ding Xinghao thinks President
Obama "may not understand China very well, and China doesn't
understand what he's thinking." Shen Dingli said President
Obama's "inexperience" will create difficulties for him
"managing his more experienced Cabinet members," including
Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton, whom Shen
characterized as "forceful" and "ideological." Ding Xinghao
also asked rhetorically if President Obama and Secretary Clinton
would be able to "maintain a harmonious relationship." Shao
Yuqun, Professor at the Shanghai Institutes for International
Studies (SIIS) noted that, although President Obama emphasized
"change" during his campaign, many of his Cabinet appointees are
part of the "old establishment." She thinks this apparent
discrepancy between his campaign rhetoric and reality has
confused some in China about what President Obama really stands
for.

Economy/Trade: Concerns About U.S. Protectionism
-------------- ---

9. (C) The scholars agreed that the main near-term focus for
President Obama will be the global financial crisis, and
strengthening economic/trade cooperation will be one of, if not
the most important challenge for U.S.-China relations over the
next few years. They stressed the need for more U.S.-China
cooperation in handling the crisis, but expressed concerns that
continuing domestic economic problems may force President Obama

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to adopt protectionist measures, potentially causing rifts in
bilateral economic relations. Zhuang Jianzhong expects
Democrats in Congress to focus on unemployment and trade issues,
pushing for more protectionist legislation. Although President
Obama may not want to be protectionist, he will have to think
more about domestic job creation, which could lead to
protectionist measures, said Zhuang.


10. (C) Shen Dingli observed there is "widespread concern" in
China over possible U.S. protectionism and trade disputes. He
believes many members of the U.S. Congress are "local leaders"
who, like the new President in his view, have a "mission" to
protect "lower tier workers," and often blame job losses on
China. Ding Xinghao thinks much of President Obama's past
criticism of China for "currency manipulation" and the "export
of U.S. jobs" was only campaign rhetoric, and the new President
probably will not adopt "comprehensive protectionist measures"
against China. But he expects President Obama to take steps to
satisfy his Democratic constituents, particularly as
implementing short-term protectionist measures would be easier
than solving longer-term issues such as healthcare and the
housing crisis, said Ding.


11. (C) The Shanghai scholars agreed that, although the
Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) may not have produced many
concrete results, it was a useful channel of communication that
should be continued, particularly given the current economic
crisis. Their concern, however, is focused not on whether the
new U.S. administration will continue with a bilateral dialogue
mechanism (even if it takes a different name and format),but
whether the mechanism will be upgraded or downgraded, and who
would take charge. Pan Rui mentioned that several Chinese
officials who had participated in the SED felt that two meetings
a year was "too much." They think once a year is enough (to
give the Chinese adequate time to prepare) and that the agenda
should be "more fair" (i.e., less demanding of China),according
to Pan.

Human Rights and Tibet
--------------

12. (C) Several scholars noted that 2009 will mark the 50th
anniversary of the Lhasa uprising in Tibet that led to the
flight of the Dalai Lama (March) and the 20th anniversary of the
Tiananmen incident (June). They think some members of the U.S.
Congress will use these occasions to criticize China's overall
human rights situation. Pan Rui believes that, because of these
anniversaries and the economic downturn (which could lead to
domestic unrest),the Chinese Government this year will be
particularly sensitive to criticism on human rights issues. Zhu
Mingquan, however, thinks the human rights issue will not derail
the positive trajectory of bilateral relations. China
understands the complexities of U.S. domestic politics and the
need for President Obama and U.S. politicians, particularly
Democrats, to raise human rights issues, said Zhu.


13. (C) Some scholars, however, warn that a meeting between
President Obama and the Dalai Lama would create serious problems
in bilateral relations. Shen Dingli thinks Tibet, though not
the main issue in bilateral relations, could be the "most
problematic" issue this year given the 50th anniversary of the
Tibet uprising in March. He cautioned against a Presidential
meeting with the Dalai Lama, particularly before President Obama
first meets with Chinese President Hu at the next G20 meeting in
London in April 2009. It is vital for Presidents Obama and Hu
to establish good personal relations before President Obama
meets the Dalai Lama, "if that meeting (between President Obama
and the Dalai Lama) is unavoidable," argued Shen.

Taiwan: "Win-Win-Win" Scenario
--------------

14. (C) The scholars are generally optimistic about the future
of U.S.-China-Taiwan trilateral relations. Zhuang Jianzhong
believes the trilateral relationship will be a "win-win-win"
situation, particularly with the "troublemaker" (former Taiwan

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President Chen Shui-bian) out of the picture. Lin Gang, who
started a new Center for Taiwan Studies at East China Normal
University in October 2008, also thinks a "win-win-win" scenario
is very likely, as long as the United States just "lets both
sides (Taiwan and the Mainland) work things out." He hopes that
the United States will not get sucked into Taiwan's internal
politics and remains "neutral," even if pressed by Taiwan's
opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to take up Chen
Shui-bian's indictment and other issues as human rights causes.


15. (C) Several scholars are hopeful that cross-Strait
relations will continue to improve this year. Lin Gang, Zhuang
Jianzhong, and Pan Rui are optimistic about Taiwan's prospects
for gaining observer status in the World Health Assembly. They
also think the Mainland will likely reduce its deployment of
missiles across the Taiwan Strait as a sign of goodwill. Pan
Rui, however, echoed a concern heard frequently in East China
academic circles that the United States may not actually desire
rapid progress in cross-Strait relations, especially if the
United States feels left out in the cold. "What is the U.S.
bottom line...what is the degree of improvement acceptable to
the U.S.?" he asked. He and Lin Gang believe U.S. arms sales to
Taiwan would undermine "mutual trust" between the United States
and China, but other scholars like Shen Dingli think China would
protest U.S. arms sales only to "save face."

Other International Issues
--------------

16. (C) There are myriad other international issues that
require cooperation between the United States and China in the
years to come, including anti-terrorism, nonproliferation,
energy, and the environment, said these Shanghai scholars. Both
countries will continue their joint anti-terror efforts, but
this is not necessarily China's priority, said Shen Dingli.
Stabilizing the situation in its immediate vicinity,
particularly the Korean Peninsula, and securing energy and other
natural resources are a greater concern for China, asserted
Shen. The bilateral relationship could be tested if the United
States "demands too much" from China on the North Korean nuclear
issue, or if President Obama "runs out of patience" with the UN
Security Council regarding sanctions on Iran, said Shen.


17. (C) Pan Rui thinks the "post-Kyoto era" will pose a serious
challenge for China on the environmental front. Since President
Obama is expected to focus more than his predecessor on
environmental issues, this could present new areas of
cooperation between the United States, China, and Japan in
developing green technology, but it could also create problems
if President Obama places too much pressure on China,
particularly given the current economic climate, said Pan.
Several scholars also speculated that the United States and
China will continue to take different approaches to energy-rich
but unsavory regimes like Sudan and Venezuela, but that it will
not lead to "strategic confrontation" between the two countries,
as both realize they must cooperate on a host of other
international issues.

Comment
--------------

18. (C) Shanghai scholars of international relations believe
they are uniquely positioned to comment on and offer advice to
policymakers in Beijing on U.S.-China relations because of
Shanghai's historical role in U.S.-China relations (i.e., the
1972 Shanghai Communiqui) and the city's long-standing role as
China's "window" to the outside world. Shanghai international
relations scholars also participate in international conferences
and track two exchanges with U.S. and other counterparts.
Although the Shanghai scholars are concerned that President
Obama may adopt populist measures on trade and human rights "to
please his Democratic base," they think the new U.S. President
will be "pragmatic" for the most part and continue positive
U.S.-China cooperation on international issues, most importantly
the global financial crisis. One of their biggest fears is that
the United States will become isolationist as it tackles its

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domestic problems. Although some scholars think China "can be a
global player," as shown by its recent deployment of naval
vessels to the Horn of Africa, and that there is a "younger
generation" of China's leaders who are more nationalistic and
believe China should "have its own voice," most of our
interlocutors still believe that China "cannot replace the
United States," at least in the near term. China will continue
to look to America for leadership on the global stage, they said.

Appendix: List of Interlocutors
--------------

19. (U) Ding Xinghao, President, Shanghai Association of
American Studies
Shen Dingli, Director, Center for American Studies, Fudan
University
Wu Xinbo, Deputy Director, Center for American Studies, Fudan
University
Zhuang Jianzhong, Professor, Center for National Strategic
Studies, Shanghai Jiaotong University
Pan Rui, Professor, Center for American Studies, Fudan
University
Shao Yuqun, Professor, Shanghai Institutes for International
Studies (SIIS)
Lin Gang, Professor of Political Science, Shanghai Jiaotong
University
Zhu Mingquan, Professor, Department of International Politics,
Fudan University
CAMP