SHANGHAI PERSPECTIVES ON FORMER PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SHANGHAI 000359

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/13/2034
TAGS: CH KN KS PARM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI PERSPECTIVES ON FORMER PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON'S
TRIP TO NORTH KOREA

CLASSIFIED BY: Beatrice Camp, Consul General, U.S. Consulate
General, Shanghai, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Meetings with Shanghai scholars and
commentaries in local papers suggest many in East China believe
the nuclear issue was the main topic of discussion during former
President Bill Clinton's August 4-5 trip to North Korea.
Shanghai scholars expressed hope that the visit would kick start
stalled negotiations over the DPRK's nuclear program and create
a channel for U.S.-North Korean dialogue. Kim Jong-il's
participation in the meetings signaled to the outside world that
Kim is still in charge in North Korea, the scholars said. End
Summary.

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Nuclear Issue Believed to be Focus of Discussions
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2. (C) Former President Bill Clinton's visit to Pyongyang
generated intense interest in East China. Xue Chen, Research
Fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies
(SIIS),said August 7 that he believes Kim Jong-il and President
Clinton discussed North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Kim
probably explained to Clinton what the North Koreans want in
order to move forward on the nuclear issue, Xue said, adding the
normalization of U.S.-DPRK ties as the bottom line.


3. (C) Xue said the participation in the talks of North Korean
Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye Gwan, who met Clinton at the
airport and attended all of the meetings, was probably
significant. Kim's role as the lead negotiator for the
Six-Party talks adds weight to the idea that the nuclear issue
was discussed, Xue stated. During the meetings, Kim would have
certainly been an active contributor when the nuclear issue was
broached, he surmised.


4. (C) Xue believes the meeting between Kim and Clinton began an
unofficial channel for dialogue between the United States and
North Korea. Now, if the North Koreans desire to send a message
to President Obama and Secretary Clinton in the future, they may
send it via the former president, Xue said.

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Commentary in the Local Media
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5. (SBU) In an interview published August 5 in Shanghai's
popular Chinese language Oriental Morning Post newspaper, Fudan
University Center for American Studies Director Shen Dingli
stated the real strategic purpose of President Clinton's trip
was North Korea's nuclear program. In a separate article in the
August 5 edition of the Chinese language Wen Hui Bao newspaper,
Shen added that Clinton's visit to the DPRK was significant
because it "opened a bilateral dialogue" between the United
States and North Korea. Shen wrote he believes a U.S.-North
Korean bilateral dialogue would take place in the near term, but
that it would probably occur on the sidelines of the Six-Party
talks. In both articles, Shen explained the trip highlighted
that U.S.-North Korean relations are improving.


6. (C) Shen added in the Wen Hui Bao commentary that, by meeting
personally with Clinton, Kim Jong-il wanted to show the world
that he is still in control in North Korea despite rumors about
his health. Xue agreed with Shen's perspective, telling PolOff
that in his view, "aside from having lost a considerable amount
of weight, Kim looks generally well."

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Trip Not Leaked Beforehand
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7. (C) Xue reported that the meeting was unknown to Chinese
academics at SIIS until Japanese press reports were published
online. He continued that if, in fact, the Chinese government
had been notified of the trip in advance, the information was
not leaked outside the top leadership circle.

CAMP