NANJING ACADEMIC: DESPITE SLOWER REFORM, CHINESE DEMOCRACY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000281

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR INR/EAP
NSC FOR LOI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/29/2034
TAGS: CH ECON IR PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: NANJING ACADEMIC: DESPITE SLOWER REFORM, CHINESE DEMOCRACY
STILL TOPIC OF DEBATE

REF: 1) 08 SHANGHAI 352; B) SHANGHAI 50

CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Principal Officer, U.S.
Consulate General, Shanghai, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: As demonstrated by recent events, Iran, like
China, currently lacks the political culture needed to support a
democratic political system, according to a well-known Nanjing
University academic. Discussion on democracy continues among
intellectuals and the Chinese public, even though corruption
scandals and the economic slowdown have impeded experiments in
political reform, and provincial leaders who had been leaning
toward reform have become more cautious. Nevertheless, China's
leaders have become much more attentive and responsive to
popular opinion, which they monitor closely. End summary.

Iran, China, and Democracy: "Neutral" Political Culture Needed
for Democracy
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2. (SBU) The current unrest in Iran following its presidential
election reveals that that country has adopted the forms of
democracy but not its essence, observed Nanjing University
Philosophy Professor Gu Su (refs) in a June 19 meeting with
Shanghai's Deputy Principal Officer (DPO). Gu said Chinese
media coverage of events in Iran had been fairly comprehensive
and had included commentary by Chinese experts analyzing the
situation. Although China has good relations with Iran, Chinese
leaders are "reasonable" and do not encourage Iran's development
of its nuclear program. China's economic cooperation with Iran,
Gu noted, centers on oil and is not as close as with major
regional economies like Thailand.


3. (C) Gu acknowledged substantial discussion is taking place
about the nature of democracy among Chinese intellectuals,
including on Chinese internet sites. His own view is that
democracy requires competitive elections, rule of law, and a
political culture where politicians adhere to a "neutral moral
standard" that avoids zero-sum conflict. He pointed to Taiwan
as an example of political competition run amok but expressed
confidence that a neutral standard is emerging. Gu indicated
his students also felt the need for China to develop its
political culture as a prerequisite to greater democracy.
Returning to the example of Iran, he likened the Iranian
regime's approach to that of China during the Cultural
Revolution where propaganda and repression were the main tools
of political control. Many Chinese have a similar opinion of
North Korea, Gu added, which he said was characterized by some
in China as a "hooligan government" (liumang zhengfu).


Corruption, Econ Slowdown Retard Political Reform
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4. (C) The big question for advocates of political reform in
China, Gu stressed, is how to advance political change without
damaging the economy. This issue dominated a recent meeting of
political scientists in Beijing he had attended. One
experimental idea currently in circulation is establishing a
separation of powers within the Communist Party among the
Secretariat, the plenary Party committee, and the discipline
inspection commission functioning as the CCP's executive,
legislative, and judicial branches, respectively, with
independent but equal authority. In Gu's assessment, the
prosperous provinces of East and South China are ripe for
potential experimentation with new political structures. (In
contrast, Gu noted North China is the center of
neo-authoritarian, "New Left" views.)


5. (C) Nevertheless, regional leaders have encountered
obstacles in pursuing political reform. According to Gu, a
proposal to experiment with political reform in Shenzhen had
been scrapped as a result of the corruption scandal that had led
to the removal of the Shenzhen mayor and his replacement by
Suzhou Party Secretary Wang Rong. This case along with the
global economic slowdown and resistance from local interests had
put a damper on political reform initiatives by Guangdong Party
Secretary Wang Yang. In addition, Shanghai Party Secretary Yu
Zhengsheng, Gu observed, is no longer as brave in pursuing
reform initiatives as he had been during his previous tenure in
Hubei Province, probably as a result of Shanghai's higher

SHANGHAI 00000281 002 OF 002


profile and greater institutional complexity.

Authorities Strengthen Response to Mass Opinion
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6. (C) The central leadership, however, has become
substantially more sensitive to public opinion, Gu stressed.
The authorities closely monitor the Internet for signs of
incidents or issues likely to provoke demonstrations or mass
action and have a leading group in place in Beijing to establish
quickly the government's policy and reaction. Gu cited the
example of the recent acquittal of Deng Yujiao, a waitress who
killed a township cadre who attempted to sexually assault her,
as well as the official reaction to the mass unrest in Guizhou's
Weng'an County as indicative of the authorities' new
responsiveness to mass opinion.

Pres. Obama Popular but Still Unnerves Leadership
-------------- --------------


7. (C) President Obama continues to be very popular with most
Chinese, who view him as a skill politician yet very good with
people, Gu said. China's leaders, however, remain less
comfortable with the Democratic Party. In the eyes of China's
leadership, the Republicans have tended to be "more serious" and
"will keep their promises." That said, Gu felt, the Obama
Administration is "unlikely to do anything to anger" the Chinese
leadership.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Gu is a long-time Nanjing contact and an avowed
"liberal" who writes a popular blog. Although the extent of his
influence on Chinese policymakers is unclear, he frequents
intellectual circles in Shanghai and Nanjing where options for
political reform are discussed. His remarks indicate that while
China's leaders -- even at the local level -- are probably not
willing to venture much beyond the current relatively low level
of political experimentation, there are plenty of ideas in
circulation should they change their minds.
CAMP