Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09SEOUL1277
2009-08-12 06:45:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Seoul
Cable title:  

SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; August 12, 2009

Tags:  PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1774
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2382
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SEOUL 001277

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; August 12, 2009

TOP HEADLINES
--------------

Chosun Ilbo
Korean Federation of Teachers' Associations (KFTA) Accepts
ROKG-Pursued "Teacher Evaluation System"
JoongAng Ilbo, Hankook Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun
Hyundai Group Chairwoman Extends Stay in N. Korea to Win Freedom of
Detained ROK Worker; ROKG Source Says, "Chances Higher for Hyundai
Chairwoman to Meet N. Korean Leader Kim Jong-il"
Dong-a Ilbo
"Hangeul Becomes the Light for Children"
Indonesian Tribe, which has No Written Version of Its Language,
Adopts Korean Alphabet Known as Hangeul
Hankyoreh Shinmun
Number of Detained Ssangyong Motor Protestors Rises to 64; Becomes
Largest Arrest of People on Public Security Charges in 12 Years
Segye Ilbo

N. Korea Likely to Free ROK Detainee Today


DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS
--------------
Hyundai Group Chairwoman Hyun Jung-eun extended her stay in North
Korea yesterday on a mission to secure the release of a detained ROK
worker and to restore strained inter-Korean relations. She was
initially scheduled to come home today, but company officials in
Seoul said that she would stay another day. (All)

The Hyundai chairwoman is likely to meet North Korean leader Kim
Jong-il today. (All)

According to an ROKG source, North Korea may free not only the
detained worker but also the four crewmembers of an ROK fishing boat
being held in the North before the August 15 Liberation Day.
(Dong-a)


INTERNATIONAL NEWS
--------------
According to ROKG sources, the USG, after assessing former President
Bill Clinton's visit to North Korea, has reached a tentative
conclusion that it is too early to judge that there has been a
meaningful change in North Korea's attitude concerning its
denuclearization. (Chosun)


MEDIA ANALYSIS
--------------

-N. Korea
--------------

Citing ROKG sources, conservative Chosun Ilbo ran an inside-page
report that the USG, after assessing former President Bill Clinton's
visit to North Korea, has reached a tentative conclusion that it is
too early to judge that there has been a meaningful change in North
Korea's attitude concerning its denuclearization.


The report quoted an ROKG official as saying: "While North Korea
toned down provocative rhetoric, there is no basis to take this as
commitment to the irreversible nuclear dismantlement the U.S. is
demanding before it improves ties. The ball is still in North
Korea's court and the prevailing consensus in the international
community is that sanctions should remain in place until the North
demonstrates a change in attitude."

All ROK media gave prominent attention to Hyundai Group Chairwoman
Hyun Jung-eun's decision yesterday to extend her stay in North Korea
for another day. According to media reports, the Hyundai
chairwoman, on a mission to secure the release of a detained ROK
worker and to restore strained inter-Korean relations, was initially
scheduled to come home today. Most ROK media speculated that the

SEOUL 00001277 002 OF 003


extension may be related to her meeting with North Korean leader Kim
Jongil, which would likely take place today.

Conservative Chosun Ilbo cited sources familiar with North Korean
affairs and defectors from the North as analyzing that North Korea's
recent conciliatory moves owe much to its staunch ally China, which
is implementing unprecedentedly tough sanctions against North Korea.
According to the sources cited, Beijing has recently begun
monitoring and regulating exports to the North, especially along the
border. The shipments under regulation range from strategic
materials to food.

- Sentencing of Aung San Suu Kyi
--------------

All ROK media gave straight front-and inside-page coverage to
yesterday's sentencing of Myanmar's democracy leader Aung San Suu
Kyi to another 18 months of house arrest for breaching the
conditions of her initial house arrest by allowing an uninvited
American to stay at her home.

Newspapers carried the following headlines: ""Aung San Suu Kyi Again
Under House Arrest... Sentence Aimed at Blocking Her from Contesting
Elections Next Year" (conservative Chosun Ilbo, left-leaning
Hankyoreh Shinmun); USG to Discuss Expulsion of Myanmar from ASEAN"
(right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo); "Myanmar's Democracy Leader Again
Put in Detention... Ruling Military Junta under Heavy International
Criticism" (conservative Dong-a Ilbo, moderate Hankook Ilbo); and
"Suu Kyi Gets 18 Months Under House Arrest; Secretary Clinton Says,
'USG will Continue to Call for Her Release'" (conservative Segye
Ilbo)


OPINIONS/EDITORIALS
--------------
U.S. SHOULD BE WARY BUT DETERMINED VIS-A-VIS N. Korea
(Chosun Ilbo, August 12, 2009, page 30)

By Washington correspondent Lee Ha-won

Chuck Downs, the Executive Director of the Committee for Human
Rights in North Korea, carries a business card that contains the
title of his book, "North Korea Negotiating Strategy." That is how
proud he is of his analysis of Pyongyang's antics. And indeed, the
process of Kim Jong-il's capture and release of the two U.S.
journalists follows exactly the analysis he offered a few years ago.


He believes that Pyongyang makes things happen that change its
counterpart's interests, in an attempt to lead negotiations to its
advantage. And after putting its counterpart on the defensive,
Pyongyang tries to wrangle something it wants.

In March, when Washington was warning about the North's preparations
for a long-range rocket test, North Korea seized two American
reporters at the border with China. It was no coincidence that the
North captured the two female journalists, who could draw more
attention than any number of male reporters who had worked in the
border area.

By sentencing them to 12 years in a labor camp and leaking
information that their health was frail, the North put the Barack
Obama Administration into an embarrassing position. And just when
the world was focusing on sanctions under UN Security Council
Resolution 1874, the North drew world attention by inviting former
U.S. president Bill Clinton.

To borrow Downs' analysis of the North's negotiating strategy
further, the next step for the North will be a call to renegotiate a
previously reached accord. Chances are that Pyongyang will call for
a change in the September 19, 2005 statement of principles in the
Six-Party Talks that agreed on the dismantlement of the North's
nuclear facilities.


SEOUL 00001277 003 OF 003


Now the U.S. is mulling how to respond to this atmosphere of
dialogue engendered by Pyongyang.

A common feature of senior U.S. officials in charge of the North
Korea issue is their experience of having previously been hit over
the head once or twice by the North. Having seen written agreements
between states torn up like waste paper, they strongly feel the need
for prudence. Earlier this year, I heard a senior U.S. official
promise, "We'll retaliate." Hearing the firmness in the voice of an
ordinarily mild-tempered man, I thought Pyongyang will find it more
difficult to conduct dialogue with the U.S. the next time it
violates an agreement.

It is reassuring that the Obama Administration is not relaxing the
reins of sanctions against North Korea, particularly given that the
Clinton and Bush Administrations both made the North Korean nuclear
problem worse by failing to maintain consistency in their policies.


If the Obama Administration is confident of maintaining that stance,
it may not be necessary to shake off the hand the North is now
extending.

(UNSC) Resolution 1874 is much stronger than (UNSC) Resolution 1718
that went into force after the North's first nuclear test in 2006.
It is pushing the North into a corner. But bear in mind that North
Korea is much more determined than the U.S. or other countries to
persevere. It cannot be ruled out that it will put up with the
sanctions indefinitely.

Mitchell Reiss, a former director of the Office of Policy Planning
at the State Department, who was mentioned as a candidate for
special envoy for North Korea, said, "Disliking North Korea is an
attitude, not a policy." He called for perseverance. If the U.S. in
the past negotiated from a position of trusting the North, perhaps
now is the time to try and negotiate with suspicion but with a
determination to persuade.


STEPHENS