SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; August 05, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 SEOUL 001235

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TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; August 05, 2009

TOP HEADLINES
--------------


Chosun Ilbo, All TVs
Bill Clinton Delivers "Obama Message" to Kim Jong-il

JoongAng Ilbo
Excited Pyongyang... Prudent Washington

Dong-a Ilbo, Hankook Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun
Clinton Makes Surprise Visit to N. Korea... Meets Kim Jong-il

Hankyoreh Shinmun
Clinton Discusses "Issues of Common Interest" with Kim Jong-il


INTERNATIONAL NEWS
--------------

According to North Korea's state-run media, former President Bill
Clinton made a surprise visit to North Korea yesterday and met with
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. The North's state-run media noted
that the former U.S. president discussed "issues of common interest"
with the North Korean leader and delivered oral messages from
President Obama to Kim. (All)

White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs, however, denied that the North
received oral messages from President Obama, saying: "That wasn't
true." (Chosun, JoongAng, Hankook, Segye)

Former President Clinton's primary mission to Pyongyang is
apparently to free the two U.S. journalists, who have been detained
in the North for 141 days. Clinton's presence may have an impact on
political issues, including the North's nuclear issue and improved
relations between the U.S. and North Korea. (All)


MEDIA ANALYSIS
--------------

Former President Clinton's Visit to N. Korea
Former President Bill Clinton's surprise visit to North Korea
yesterday received top play in the ROK media. Meanwhile, according
to Yonhap News, citing North Korean media, the former U.S. President
departed Pyongyang today with two U.S. journalists who have been
held for 141 days since they were arrested on March 17, after North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il granted a special pardon to the
journalists.

Most ROK media focused their coverage on yesterday's reports by
North Korea's state-run media that the former U.S. President met
with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to discuss "issues of common
interest" and delivered oral messages from President Obama to the
North Korean leader. However, according to media reports, White
House Spokesman Robert Gibbs denied that North Korea received such
messages, saying: "That wasn't true."

The ROK media also observed that former President Clinton's primary
mission to Pyongyang was apparently to free the U.S. journalists but
that the political weight Clinton carries as a former U.S. president
and as the husband of the incumbent Secretary of State has given
rise to speculation that he was on a broader mission to find a
breakthrough on issues, such as the North Korean nuclear problem and
improved relations between the two countries.

Conservative Chosun Ilbo, in an inside-page article entitled "'The
Door of Dialogue' on the Edge of a Precipice... Are the U.S., N.
Korea Heading Toward Comprehensive Negotiations?" raised the
possibility that Washington may have proposed a comprehensive
package to North Korea. The report also cited some ROK analysts as
commenting that it would not be easy for the two countries to

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improve bilateral ties, given the North's unwillingness to give up
its nuclear ambitions.

In an accompanying article, Chosun also wondered whether Clinton's
visit will lead to the release of an ROK worker who has been held
incommunicado in the North for 128 days. An ROKG official was
quoted as saying: "There has been no news directly from North Korea,
but we have high expectations that the detention issue will also be
resolved in the not-so-distant future once the American journalists
are released."

Newspapers carried the following inside-page headlines: "U.S., North
Korea Explores Solution but the Two Koreas? ... ROKG Concerned"
(right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo); "Clinton Has Unprecedented Dinner
and Amicable Dialogue with Kim Jong-il... Will Rapid Progress Be
Made in U.S.-North Korea Relations?" (conservative Dong-a Ilbo); and
"Chilly Summer for the Two Koreas... Will Seoul Be Left Out in the
Cold?" (moderate Hankook Ilbo)

- Editorial Comments

Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "The Clinton-Kim Jong-il
meeting is a sign that direct talks between the U.S. and North Korea
have effectively started, after the North's second nuclear test and
its long-range missile launch. It is only a matter of time before
the two countries start bilateral negotiations. ... Clinton's visit
to the North has also disclosed the limitations of sanctions against
North Korea through the UN."

Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo editorialized: "We truly hope that Mr.
Clinton's visit will serve as a turning point in comprehensively
resolving the North Korean nuclear issue by changing the situation
from confrontation to dialogue. (The U.S.),however, should not
repeat the past mistake of dancing to the North's tune while only
seeking dialogue with the communist state. Accordingly, (the U.S.)
needs to, for a while, maintain a two-track strategy toward North
Korea of tougher sanctions and dialogue. Furthermore, the U.S.
should closely consult with its allies, such as the ROK and Japan,
under the principle that North Korea possessing nuclear weapons can
not be tolerated."

Moderate Hankook Ilbo's editorial stated: "Former President Clinton
is the highest-ranking of the officials who have been mentioned as
possible special envoys to negotiate the release of the U.S.
journalists. In other words, Clinton's visit has greatly saved the
North's face. By taking corresponding measures in return, North
Korea should not miss this good opportunity to get out of
international sanctions and isolation."

Left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun editorialized: "The problem is the
Lee Myung-bak Administration's attitude. The Lee Administration has
plunged inter-Korean relations to its worst level by pushing for a
hard-line policy toward North Korea. Now is the time for the Lee
Administration to face up to the rapidly changing environment and to
quit the hard-line policy that has contributed only to the ROK being
excluded from discussions on Korean Peninsula issues."


OPINIONS/EDITORIALS
--------------

PREPARE FOR RAMIFICATIONS FROM CLINTON'S N.KOREA VISIT
(Chosun Ilbo, August 5, 2009, page 35)

Former U.S. president Bill Clinton has won the release of two
American journalists held in North Korea with a surprise visit to
the Stalinist country. His wife, Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton, had stated a few times in the past that negotiations for
the American journalists' release is one thing and that the North
Korean nuclear issue quite another.

It will be difficult for Washington to conduct nuclear disarmament
talks with the North and invalidate the very UN sanctions on the
North it has lobbied so hard to implement. If it negotiates with

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Pyongyang, the U.S. would have to do so within the framework of
Six-Party Talks, and will find it difficult to abandon the recently
established principle of not rewarding the North for just returning
to the negotiation table.

But Clinton's visit must have come with the blessing of President
Barack Obama, and chances are that Clinton carried a personal letter
of message addressed to Kim Jong-il from Obama. The message will
not just have mentioned the two journalists. Obama sent the most
prominent American he could possibly send. The Clinton-Kim Jong-il
meeting is a sign that direct talks between the U.S. and North Korea
have effectively started, after the North's second nuclear test and
its long-range missile launch. It is only a matter of time before
the two countries start bilateral negotiations.

Clinton's visit recalls Jimmy Carter's in 1994. Visiting the North
amid the first nuclear crisis, Carter reversed the situation by
lifting U.S. sanctions on the North and achieving an inter-Korean
summit. But it merely eased the tension for a while and did not
touch upon fundamental issues. The North has since carried out two
nuclear tests and now even behaves like a nuclear power. That gives
rise to fears that Clinton's visit might repeat the pattern.

Hearing the news of Clinton's Pyongyang visit, many may feel
perplexed and even betrayed by the U.S. But the development is
merely a manifestation of the dynamics of international politics,
which are nothing but the pursuit of national interests. The ROK
will have to look at the situation coolly and realistically. What
the U.S. fears most is for terrorist organizations hostile to it to
acquire nuclear weapons from North Korea. Removing the danger is the
top U.S. priority. It is needless to ask what Washington will
choose if its national interests clash with the ROK's position.

Clinton's visit to the North has also disclosed the limitations of
sanctions against North Korea through the UN. In matters concerning
the ROK's national interest, we should harbor no illusion about UN
authority. So long as North Korea has an ally in China, it will not
fear war, and sanctions against the North cannot be effective.

The U.S. and North Korea will, at some point, sit at a negotiation
table. In the negotiations, the North Korean nuclear issue will be
discussed along with the entire question of the Korean Peninsula,
and the agenda will include the replacement of the armistice with a
peace agreement. And the peace accord is directly linked to the
presence of the U.S. Forces Korea.

It cannot be ruled out that Obama himself will visit Pyongyang for a
summit within a few years. In that process, the North will attempt
to freeze the ROK out. The ROK was already sidestepped in the 1994
Geneva accords between the U.S. and North Korea. Washington may
have notified Seoul of Clinton's Pyongyang visit in advance, but
it's doubtful if the visit was preceded by full cooperation with
Seoul.

If Washington-Pyongyang negotiations can denuclearize the North and
guarantee a complete peace on the Korean Peninsula, there is no
reason why we should not welcome them. But if the process leads to
the North being recognized as a nuclear power, we must resist it as
strongly as we can.

The question is what we can do. The government should assure the
public that it is making adequate preparations for all possible
scenarios. National unity is essential. A specific diplomatic
strategy comes next.

When Carter visited the North, Kim Il-sung said, "We have neither
the intention nor the ability to develop nuclear weapons." Twelve
years later, the North tested a nuclear device. The chief U.S.
nuclear negotiator at the time Robert Gallucci said, "We've been
completely deceived." We have to watch whether Clinton's North
Korea visit will replicate that disaster, and prepare for any
ramifications with a cool head.



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CLINTON'S VISIT TO NORTH KOREA COULD BREAK NUCLEAR DEADLOCK
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, August 5, 2009, page 31)

Amid a downward spiral in North Korea-U.S. relations since the
launch of the Barack Obama Administration, former President Bill
Clinton's surprise visit to North Korea yesterday has grabbed the
world's attention. The visit's official purpose is to bring home
the two U.S. reporters being detained in North Korea, but the world
is watching to see if any improvements in the nuclear talks and the
North Korea-U.S. relationship are also made.

Clinton's visit is of interest in two regards. First, as a former
president and husband to the current U.S. Secretary of State, he is
considered to be a figure that exercises great influence over the
foreign policy of the Obama Administration. Moreover, Clinton has
the strongest record, out of all of the U.S. presidents who have
served, of bringing North Korea-U.S. relations close to
normalization. Both the 1994 Geneva Accords that resolved the first
nuclear crisis and the October 12 Joint Communique that
fundamentally changed the framework for North Korea-U.S. relations
were concluded during his presidency.

Second, experience has shown that prior nuclear deadlocks between
North Korea and the U.S. were broken after the U.S. sent
high-ranking figures to North Korea. The most representative
example of this was during the nuclear crisis in 1994, when former
President Jimmy Carter brought about a turning point in resolving
the crisis through talks in Pyongyang with North Korean leader Kim
Il-sung. Observers are saying Clinton's visit, in comparison, has
been more closely coordinated with the U.S. Administration, which
lends it more weight.

Both North Korea and the U.S. are currently keeping quiet about the
details of Clinton's visit, but experts say it could serve as a
crucial opportunity in changing U.S. policy on North Korea from one
of pressure to dialogue. They say whether that dialogue takes place
within the framework of the Six-Party Talks or within a separate
framework will still be an issue, but regardless, the visit signals
that North Korea-U.S. dialogue will begin in earnest. In fact,
before the visit took place, the two countries engaged in attempts
to resolve the nuclear deadlock through the New York channel. In
particular, ever since Kurt Campbell assumed the position of
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in
June, the U.S. has appeared to be open to the possibilities of a
potential policy shift while preparing a "comprehensive package"
acceptable to North Korea. North Korea, on its part, has been
refraining from engaging in provocative actions.

The problem is the Lee Myung-bak Administration's attitude. The Lee
Administration has plunged inter-Korean relations to its worst level
by pushing for a hard-line policy toward North Korea. Now is the
time for the Lee Administration to face up to the rapidly changing
environment and to quit the hard-line policy that has contributed
only to the ROK being excluded from discussions on Korean Peninsula
issues.


EXPECTATIONS AND CONCERNS OVER CLINTON-KIM JONG-IL MEETING
(JoongAng Ilbo, August 5, 2009, Page 34)

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton paid a surprise visit to
Pyongyang yesterday and met with North Korea's National Defense
Committee Chairman Kim Jong-il. The North Korean media reported
that they had substantive talks about matters of mutual concern.
Mr. Clinton's visit is the second time that a former U.S. President
has headed to North Korea, after former U.S. President Jimmy Carter
visited there during the first nuclear crisis in 1994. While
looking at another "surprise show" of U.S.-North Korea relations, we
feel complicated because there are both expectations and concerns
about the Clinton-Kim Jong-il meeting.

As the White House Spokesman said, the official purpose of Mr.
Clinton's visit is to negotiate the release of the two U.S. female
journalists detained in the North for five months. The journalists,

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Euna Lee and Laura Ling, were arrested on March 17 by North Korean
soldiers while reporting from the border between North Korea and
China and were sentenced last month to 12 years of hard labor for
illegal entry and committing hostilities against the North. It is a
severe punishment beyond common sense. We expect that Mr. Clinton's
visit will lead to the safe return of the journalists and will also
serve as an opportunity for Pyongyang to free an ROK employee of the
Kaesong Industrial Complex - who has been held in the North for five
months - and the crew members of the ROK fishing vessel "Yeonan,"
which was seized in the East Sea (Sea of Japan) last week.

The reason why we cannot help paying close attention to Mr.
Clinton's visit, despite the USG's position of keeping the
humanitarian issue separate from the North Korean nuclear issue, is
due to the weight that the former U.S. President carries, not to
mention the gravity of the situation. While uncertainty was growing
in the North Korean regime due to Kim's health problem and the
succession issue, Pyongyang pushed the situation on the Korean
Peninsula to the edge by conducting a second nuclear test and
test-firing a barrage of missiles. In response, the U.S., along
with the international community, has been strengthening sanctions
against the North. Against this backdrop, the U.S. and North Korea
had closed-door negotiations about the release of the female
journalists, and it was highly meaningful that the two sides agreed
that such a political heavyweight as Mr. Clinton should visit
Pyongyang. While pressuring the North, the U.S. has also dangled a
comprehensive package of incentives to persuade it to take
irreversible steps toward denuclearization. North Korea, for its
part, has raised a need for U.S.-North Korea high-level talks.

We truly hope that Mr. Clinton's visit will serve as a turning point
in comprehensively resolving the North Korean nuclear issue by
changing the situation from confrontation to dialogue. (The U.S.),
however, should not repeat the past mistake of dancing to the
North's tune while only seeking dialogue with the communist state.
Accordingly, (the U.S.) needs to, for a while, maintain a two-track
strategy toward North Korea of tougher sanctions and dialogue.
Furthermore, the U.S. should closely consult with its allies, such
as the ROK and Japan, under the principle that North Korea
possession nuclear weapons cannot be tolerated.

The ROKG should calmly look at the current situation and lay the
foundation for breaking the deadlock in inter-Korean ties. It
should also carefully analyze the outcome of Mr. Clinton's visit
through close cooperation with Washington, and, if necessary, should
consider making a bold proposal for a turnaround in relations with
the North through the President's congratulatory speech on the
August 15 Liberation Day.


PAYING ATTENTION TO SITUATION FOLLOWING CLINTON-KIM JONG-IL MEETING
(Hankook Ilbo, August 5, 2009, page 31)

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton arrived in North Korea yesterday
on a special flight and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.
It appears that he made a private visit to negotiate the release of
two U.S. female journalists, who have been detained in North Korea.
However, since he is a prominent figure and the visit is
symbolically important, the purpose of his visit may not be just to
free the two journalists. In 1994, during the first North Korean
nuclear crisis, former President Jimmy Carter visited North Korea to
achieve a breakthrough. We hope that Clinton's visit will serve as
a dramatic turning point for U.S.-North Korean relations to change
from confrontation to dialogue.

Of course, we should avoid hasty optimism. North Korea has not
changed its basic position to achieve the status of a nuclear state.
Also, North Korea still faces international sanctions and pressure
due to its second nuclear test and long-range rocket launches. Some
observers point out, reasonably, that a one-time meeting between the
former U.S. President and current North Korean leader will not ease
the standoff between the U.S. and North Korea. This is why the U.S.
government has underscored the need to separate the journalists'
detention from political issues.

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However, it is indisputable that the visit by former President Bill
Clinton, who is the husband of the incumbent Secretary of State in
charge of U.S. diplomacy, will likely serve as a starting point to
change U.S. policy on North Korea. It is well known that while in
office, former President Clinton made efforts to fundamentally
resolve the North Korean nuclear and missile issue. Clinton reached
the Geneva Agreed Framework with North Korea in 1994 and tried to
visit Pyongyang in 2000. Since it seems that Clinton held
wide-ranging discussions with Kim Jong-il on pending issues, this is
likely to bring an improvement in negotiations regarding the
normalization of diplomatic relations. Another good sign is that he
(possibly) delivered President Obama's verbal message to Kim
Jong-il.

Former President Clinton is the highest-ranking of the officials who
have been mentioned as possible special envoys to negotiate the
release of the U.S. journalists. In other words, Clinton's visit
has greatly saved the North's face. By taking corresponding
measures in return, North Korea should not miss this good
opportunity to get out of international sanctions and isolation. If
North Korea returns to the ROK, both Hyundai Asan-employee Mr. Yoo,
and the ROK ship it seized last week, this could serve as a dramatic
breakthrough. The ROKG should carefully watch any change in
U.S.-North Korea relations following Clinton's meeting with Kim
Jong-il and make sure that this situation is used to our advantage
to improve strained inter-Korean relations.


FEATURES
--------------


N. KOREA FREES U.S. REPORTERS AFTER BILL CLINTON VISIT
(Chosun Ilbo, August 5, 2009, pages 1 and 3: EXCERPTS)

By Reporter Lim Min-hyuk

Former U.S. president Bill Clinton has won the freedom of two
American journalists who were sentenced to hard labor in North
Korea. Clinton went on a surprise visit to Pyongyang on Tuesday to
win the release of Euna Lee and Laura Ling, who have been held for
141 days since they were arrested on March 17 while working at the
China-North Korea border near the Duman (or Tumen) River. Press
reports said the two journalists were traveling back to the U.S.
with Clinton.

The North Korean state media said Clinton and his entourage arrived
in Pyongyang by air on Tuesday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il met
with Clinton and received a "verbal message" from U.S. President
Barack Obama, they said. They added that Kim later pardoned the two
reporters and ordered their release.

The political weight Clinton carries as a former U.S. president and
as the husband of the incumbent Secretary of State has given rise to
speculation that he was on a broader mission to find a breakthrough
in Washington-Pyongyang relations.

An ROK government official earlier indicated most of the
behind-the-scenes negotiations for the journalists' release had been
finished before Clinton's trip, saying U.S. and North Korean
officials held "intimate talks" through the North's UN mission in
New York until Clinton's visit to the North materialized.

ROK and U.S. government officials are stressing that Clinton visited
the North as a private citizen. The U.S. has maintained the
principle that it is necessary to separate the journalists'
detention, a humanitarian issue, from political issues including the
North Korean nuclear problem.

But experts doubt that such a prominent figure would only play a
simple role in securing the journalists' release. Prof. Kim
Yong-hyun of Dongguk University said, "Clinton's visit to the North
is a big event that can turn the current mode of confrontation
between Washington and Pyongyang into a mode of dialogue. We should

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view his visit as the beginning of overall change in the U.S. policy
toward North Korea."

Experts speculate that the North Korean media's quick reporting on
the visit shows how eagerly the North expected something bigger from
his visit than a mere ransom for the journalists.

Experts point out that the North rejected U.S. proposals for visits
by the special representative for North Korea policy, Stephen
Bosworth, former U.S. vice president Al Gore, or New Mexico Governor
Bill Richardson, because it wanted someone more prominent.

Yun Duk-min, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and
National Security, said earlier that if Clinton met with Kim, "there
is a high probability that the North Korean nuclear talks will
resume." The ROK official said the meeting between the two would
allow the North to convey its position on the nuclear issue directly
to the U.S. government.


BILL CLINTON MAKES S-E-C-R-E-T NORTH TRIP
(JoongAng Daily, August 5, 2009)

By Correspondent Choi Sang-hyun and Reporter Lee Young-jong

Mission involves the release of jailed journalists

Former United States President Bill Clinton arrived in North Korea's
capital city of Pyongyang yesterday in a bid to negotiate the
release of two American journalists detained since March.

North Korea's state-run media reported during their noon news shows
that Yang Hyong-sop, vice president of the Presidium of the Supreme
People's Assembly, and Kim Gye-gwan, vice-minister of Foreign
Affairs, greeted Clinton at Sunan Airport.

Although North Korean media reported some details, such as Clinton
receiving a welcome bouquet from a little girl at the airport, the
reports did not specify the purpose of his trip. Whether Clinton
will meet the North's leader, Kim Jong-il, remains unclear.

No announcement about the trip was made by the U.S. government until
9 p.m. yesterday.

"While this solely private mission to secure the release of two
Americans is on the ground, we will have no comment," said White
House spokesman Robert Gibbs in a statement. We do not want to
jeopardize the success of former President Clinton's mission."

The U.S. Embassy in Seoul also declined to comment earlier in the
day. Although a Korean-language interpreter from the embassy was
captured on TV news upon Clinton's arrival at the airport, U.S.
diplomats in Seoul were tight-lipped, insisting that they have no
information on the trip.

While working on a story about North Korean defectors at the Chinese
border, Euna Lee and Laura Ling - both reporters for
California-based Current TV - were arrested by the North on March 17
on charges of illegal border crossing. The North's Central Court
put the two on trial on June 4 and convicted both of them for
committing grave crimes and slander against the North Korean people.
They were each sentenced on June 8 to 12 years at a labor camp.

Lisa Ling, the sister of Laura Ling, was quoted by U.S. media
yesterday saying that the family did not want to comment on the
Clinton trip. "Everything is just so delicate," she said to the Los
Angeles Times. "We're going to wait it out a while longer. We're on
pins and needles."

The newspaper also reported that a U.S. official, who declined to be
identified, said the Clintons were approached by the journalists'
families when it became clear that Pyongyang would permit the former
president to travel to the North.


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Clinton's trip came after his wife, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary
Rodham Clinton, publicly pleaded for the release of the women last
month. Diplomatic sources have said the North requested a
high-profile figure to pay a visit to discuss the fate of Lee and
Ling and that Washington and Pyongyang talked about the possibility
through diplomatic channels in New York.

On July 24, Sin Sun-ho, North Korean ambassador to the United
Nations, held a rare media conference and said his government was
interested in direct talks with the Barack Obama Administration on
issues of "common concern."

An ROK government official said last week that Washington and
Pyongyang had struck a deal through direct and indirect contacts
that the two journalists were to be granted amnesty. "It was just a
matter of who will visit North Korea and when," the source said at
the time.

Clinton is the second former U.S. President to visit North Korea.
Only days after North Korea walked out of the International Atomic
Energy Agency to push forward with its nuclear arms programs in
1994, former President Jimmy Carter traveled to Pyongyang and met
with then-North Korean leader Kim Il-sung.

At the time, Clinton was serving his first presidential term, and
tensions between Washington and Pyongyang had reached a breaking
point. Carter's trip changed the situation dramatically, and the
Clinton Administration signed the Geneva agreement with Pyongyang
later that year to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

During his presidency, Clinton also considered visiting the North
himself, although no such trip took place while he was in office.

With Clinton's trip, optimism prevailed yesterday that the two
American journalists would be released.

While the Lee Myung-bak Administration did not issue an official
comment on the trip, a Unification Ministry official said it was
extraordinary for the North's media to air reports about Clinton's
visit so fast. "Unless Kim Jong-il greets a visitor such as the
Presidents of China and Russia, it is rare that the reports are
aired fast," the official said. "This means Pyongyang is putting
importance on his visit."

Clinton reportedly arrived at the airport around 10:48 a.m., and the
North's media reported the news in less than two hours. He also
flew directly from the United States to North Korea, not passing
through the ROK or China, according to U.S. media reports.

Experts are optimistic about Clinton's trip. Noting that Clinton
commands respect in North Korea, Victor Cha, a Georgetown University
professor who served as a Bush Administration adviser on North
Korea, was quoted as saying by U.S. media that it is possible that
no agreement was prearranged for Lee and Ling's release. "But it
would be very difficult for the North not to give these people up"
to a former U.S. president, he said.

Others agreed. "Clinton will not go home empty-handed," said Liu
Jiangyong, a professor of international relations at the Institute
of International Studies at China's Tsinghua University, calling the
trip a positive sign and an important breakthrough in U.S.-North
Korea relations.

Although some spoke about expectations that stalled U.S.-North Korea
relations may ease and that Pyongyang may return to the deadlocked
Six-Party denuclearization talks, it was unclear whether Clinton
would discuss security issues aside from the reporters' release. In
June, the U.S. State Department made clear that the reporters'
detention and the nuclear crisis are two separate matters.

Tensions in the region have intensified since North Korea fired a
barrage of missiles and conducted a second nuclear test earlier this
year. The North has also threatened to test an inter-continental
ballistic missile and restart its frozen nuclear program.

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It is also not clear how the situation will influence the ROK
government's efforts to free its citizens held in the North.
Inter-Korean relations have hit their lowest point in years, ever
since the Lee Administration took office in February of last year.

An ROK worker at the Kaesong Industrial Complex has been detained in
the communist country since April on charges of defaming the North's
administration. Then on July 30, an ROK fishing boat with four crew
members strayed north of the border and was tugged away by a North
Korean patrol boat.

Pyongyang has snubbed a series of requests by Seoul to discuss these
issues.


ROK SHOULD NOT BE LEFT OUT AMID SUDDEN IMPROVEMENT IN U.S.-NORTH
KOREA RELATIONS
(OhmyNews, August 5, 2009)

North Korea has sought to bypass the ROK government now and in the
past, particularly, the conservative ones, in its efforts to improve
relations with the U.S. In 1993, during the first North Korean
nuclear crisis, the Kim Young-sam Government rejected inter-Korean
talks when U.S.-North Korea dialogue was making progress. This led
to the ROKG wielding less influence (over the North Korean issue)
and paying for the North Korean light-water reactor project,
following the signing of the Geneva Agreed Framework.

Now that the former U.S. President has visited North Korea to pursue
dialogue with North Korea, it will be hard for the U.S. to put much
emphasis on the U.S.-ROK alliance in the face of North Korea's
attempt to bypass the ROK. We should not forget the grim reality
that even though the Japanese government, (the U.S.') key ally in
Northeast Asia, voiced opposition to the Six-Party Talks (in the
past),citing the reason that the issue of Japanese abductees should
be resolved (first),the U.S. reached the October 3 agreement with
North Korea.

Tensions, which have been escalating (on the Korean Peninsula) in
recent months, stem from confrontation between the U.S. and North
Korea. However, amid the worsening situation on the Korean
Peninsula, North Korea has shunned military clashes in inter-Korean
relations. But if the Lee Myung-bak Government rejects ROK-North
Korea talks, as the Kim Young-sam Government did, it is very likely
that things will make an abrupt turn when (the mood for) U.S.-North
Korea talks are improving. I think that North Korea will be very
likely to resort to military provocations against the ROK, such as
naval clashes in the West Sea, going beyond a war of rhetoric when
using phrases like "sea of fire." North Korea's reaction to the
Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG),a U.S.-ROK joint exercise, which will
take place from August 17 to 27, may signal which approach the North
has taken and which options the ROK should take.

The two Koreas, which have lost trust in each other, are now
undergoing a long cooling-off period. The Lee Myung-bak
Administration is following the previous Kim Young-sam
Administration's misjudgment that North Korea will soon collapse and
the Bush Administration's misjudgment that the North can be brought
to its knees through sanctions. As long as the Lee Administration
maintains its current position toward the North-in which a true
North Korea policy is missing and only a response to Pyongyang's
policy towards the South exists - we are in more of a crisis than
ever before.

If former U.S. President Clinton's visit is successfully concluded,
a likely "package of gifts" (that the former President will bring
with him from the North) will include a proposal to the ROK, just as
former President Carter's "gifts" included a proposal for an
inter-Korean summit. Depending on what decision the ROKG makes,
Seoul could either bring on a thaw in inter-Korean ties or put a
worse strain on the relationship, thereby inviting isolation.

Fortunately, the ROKG expressed a willingness to resume humanitarian

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aid to the North - which has been on hold since the second nuclear
test - by approving the application of a private aid group (World
Vision) for a visit to the North on July 31, and by approving a plan
on August 3 to provide 3.4 billion won to ROK aid groups. This will
be the first time after Pyongyang's second nuclear test on May 25
that a private aid group will be allowed to enter North Korea. .
However, these gestures are not enough. Seoul's humanitarian food
aid and a proactive proposal for dialogue are necessary. The Lee
Administration should seriously consider making these proposals
through the President's August 15 Liberation Day speech.

If dialogue is wrapped up as submission, and confrontation and
sanctions are wrapped up as a political victory, the ROKG's
influence over the Korean Peninsula will inevitably weaken further.
Since its inauguration, the Lee Administration has advocated
practical diplomacy. If Seoul still adheres to this doctrine, now
is the time to carry out its "practical diplomacy" from a strategic
perspective.



STEPHENS