SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; August 03, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SEOUL 001218

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SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; August 03, 2009

TOP HEADLINES
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Chosun Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo, Dong-a Ilbo,
Hankook Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun
Ssangyong Likely to Face Liquidation
After Negotiations Fall Apart

Hankyoreh Shinmun
Ssangyong Motor Unable to Reach Deal with Union;
"Colossal Collision" Looms While Government Sits on Its Hands


DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS
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North Korea's state-run media said on August 1 that Pyongyang has
seized an ROK ship for illegally violating its waters. (Chosun,
Hankook)

ROK military sources said that the sole remaining battalion of 24
Apache choppers may depart following the 2012 transfer of wartime
operational control. The ROKG is considering plans to form a
separate unit of attack helicopters for defense reinforcement
purposes. (Chosun, Dong-a, Hankook, Hankyoreh, Segye) Military
sources said that Washington will station one dozen F-15E Strike
Eagle jets at Kunsan Air Base to replace 12 F-16 Fighting Falcon
jets currently stationed at Suwon. (JoongAng, Dong-a)


INTERNATIONAL NEWS
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According to the Associated Press, the Obama Administration
suggested to the Chinese that the U.S. and China should discuss a
contingency plan in case the North Korean regime collapses, but the
Chinese government rejected the overture. (Chosun)

Australia's Sydney Morning Herald reported on August 1 that North
Korea is helping Myanmar build a s-e-c-r-e-t nuclear reactor and
plutonium extraction plant to make an atomic bomb, citing the
evidence of defectors. (Chosun, Segye)

Former U.S. President George W. Bush, who is on a visit to Jeju
Island to attend a forum organized by the Federation of Korean
Industries (FKI),met with ROK President Lee Myung-bak. (Chosun,
Dong-a, JoongAng, Hankook, Segye) Former President Bush expressed
regret Saturday over the delay in ratifying the Korea-U.S. Free
Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) signed in 2007. (Dong-a, JoongAng,
Hankook)

Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs Philip J. Crowley
hinted at a July 31 briefing that the U.S. Government will continue
considering whether to relist North Korea as a state sponsor of
terrorism. (Segye)


MEDIA ANALYSIS
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-North Korea
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Most ROK media gave wide attention to a report that quoted ROK
military sources as saying that the U.S. may pull its remaining
battalion of Apache attack helicopters out of the ROK by 2012, when
operational control (OPCON) of troops during wartime is transferred
to the ROK. The media also reported that the ROKG is considering
plans to form a separate unit of attack helicopters for defense
reinforcement purposes. Conservative Chosun Ilbo reported that an
ROK military official said the military is looking at ways to boost
the capabilities of its own attack helicopter unit to fill the

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vacuum that will be left by the withdrawal of the last USFK Apache
helicopter battalion.
In a related development, right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo cited an ROK
military source as saying on August 2 that Washington will station a
dozen F-15E Strike Eagle jets at Kunsan Air Base to replace the 12
F-16 Fighting Falcon jets at Suwon Air Base. The source said the
move is designed to ease concerns caused by the planned withdrawal
from the ROK of a battalion of AH-64 Apache attack helicopters.

Chosun Ilbo gave front- and inside-page play to a report that,
according to the Associated Press (AP),the Obama Administration
suggested that the U.S. and China discuss a contingency plan in case
the North Korean regime collapses, but the Chinese government
rejected this overture. The media noted, citing the AP report, that
according to diplomatic sources and Chinese scholars, the U.S. asked
China in several meetings with senior Chinese officials, including
in one meeting with Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg in
June, to discuss the post-Kim Jong-il scenario, but China declined
the suggestion. The newspaper said China has refused to discuss the
plan, apparently because it does not believe post-Kim North Korea
will collapse and worried that such a plan would only upset North
Korea. Chosun Ilbo noted in its inside page analysis that the AP
report is significant in two aspects. First, the U.S. sees any
contingency situation in North Korea as an impending crisis.
Second, in case any emergency occurs in North Korea, cooperation
between the U.S and China will not be easy because China has a
different view of the post-Kim North Korea and maintains the
position that should the North collapse, it would be possible to
solve the situation through the UN.


FEATURES
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U.S. PLANS TO DEPLOY ALL-WEATHER ATTACK AIRCRAFT F-15E TO ROK
(JoongAng Ilbo, August 3, 2009, Page 13)

By Reporter Chung Yong-soo

The U.S. plans to replace rotationally deployed F-16 fighters in the
ROK with advanced F-15E Strike Eagles.

"The F-16 aircraft that were deployed to Suwon Air Base early this
year will be replaced with F-15E fighter jets," a military source
said on August 2. "They will be stationed at Kunsan Air Base for six
months starting from August 20."

Twelve F-15Es will be deployed directly from the U.S. along with 400
support personnel, and be mobilized in the "Ulchi Freedom Guardian
(UFG)" military drill that starts on September 17. This March, USFK
stationed the dozen F-16 aircraft at Suwon Air Base to fill the gap
left by the withdrawal of the U.S. Apache battalion. The Apaches
were mainly aimed at defeating (North Korea's) armored forces and
obstructing the invasion of (North Korea's) Special Forces units.

On the other hand, the F-15E has long-range precision bombing
capability. Therefore, many observers say that the deployment of
the F-15E to the ROK is designed for the U.S. Air Force to
strengthen its war capabilities (in the region).

"In the past, the F-15Es have patrolled over the Korean Peninsula or
joined military drills," said an expert on national defense.
"However, their long-term deployment this time can be viewed as the
buildup of war potential, especially considering Washington's
hard-line policy toward North Korea."

Armed with advanced avionics equipment, the F-15E has all-weather
air-to-air or air-to-ground attack capabilities. In particular,
since it is fitted with the "low-altitude navigation and targeting
infrared for night" (LANTIRN) system, the F-15E can conduct
precision bombing at night. It can also carry six MK-82 bombs, four
CBU-52/58/71 cluster bombs, and GBU-10/12/15 laser-guided bombs.

Defense Ministry plans to enhance attack helicopter capabilities

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The ROK Ministry of National Defense is looking at ways to boost the
capabilities of its own attack helicopter unit in order to conduct
military operations independently, and to prepare for the pullout of
the USFK's last Apache helicopter battalion, which is expected to
come after the transfer of wartime operational control of ROK troops
to Seoul in 2012.

"The 500MD Defenders and Cobra helicopters that the (ROK) Army's
attack helicopter unit has will leave soon," a Defense Ministry
official said. "The ROK Army could replace its own existing attack
helicopter unit with used Apache helicopters or reinforce the unit
by developing a new chopper."

Another official noted, "A final decision on what helicopter will be
chosen for development will be made around the middle of next year.
The helicopter will likely be developed locally with some
technological help from a foreign company."


ACTIVE DEBATE IN THE U.S. OVER NORTH KOREA CONTINGENCY ...
WASHINGTON EVEN ASKED BEIJING TO DISCUSS DEVISING JOINT MEASURES
(Chosun Ilbo, August 3, 2009, Page 4)
By Reporter Kang In-sun

News & View

The recent AP report that China has declined a suggestion from the
U.S. to discuss a North Korean contingency plan is noteworthy in two
respects.

First, the report confirms that the U.S. sees a North Korea
contingency as an "imminent crisis." For China, the most sensitive
North Korean issue is not Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions but its
regime stability. This is because, for China, North Korea serves as
a buffer against the growing influence of the U.S. and Japan in
Northeast Asia. Although the U.S. was well aware of this, it asked
Beijing to discuss a "North Korea contingency," which reveals that
the U.S. considers the current situation urgent.

Second, in the event of an emergency in North Korea, cooperation
between the U.S. and China, which is essential to minimizing
uncertainty, will not be easy. Although Deputy Secretary of State
Steinberg raised the issue (of discussing a North Korea contingency)
through an official channel, China "rejected" it, thereby clearly
stating that no common ground can be found between the views of
China and the U.S.

Right after President Obama took office this January, Washington
began showing signs of shifting its focus on North Korea policy
toward a contingency plan. U.S. experts started saying that with
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's health problems looming large, the
substance of the North Korean issue had changed. If the North
Korean nuclear issue is a long-term challenge, the succession issue
in the North and any possible chaos that results are imminent
matters. Furthermore, if (the U.S.) fails to prepare for an
emergency in the North properly, (the U.S.) could fall into a
situation where the transfer of nuclear materials, which the U.S.
thinks is the biggest threat, cannot be controlled.

In the 1990s, observers speculated that if North Korea collapsed, it
would be attributed to food shortages and political uncertainties
caused by economic difficulties, and the human rights issue.
Recently, however, discussions about an emergency in the North
involve North Korean leader Kim's failing health, transfer of power,
the possibility that the nuclear issue may not be resolved
peacefully, and contingencies sparked by North Korea's resistance
against international sanctions.

In Washington, there has been active debate about a new emergency in
the North. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) said in its
January report titled, "Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea,"
that if North Korea falls into a chaos, its potential threat cannot
be resolved by only the ROK and the U.S. Therefore, the CFR

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recommended that the U.S. clear up any misunderstandings and share
potential concerns with China through closed-door discussions.

Korean Peninsula experts in Washington also presented various views.
Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,
argued last month that, if a problem develops with North Korea's
nuclear materials - a threat to U.S. security - in the event of
North Korea's collapse, the U.S. needs to consider stationing its
forces in the North.

Bruce Bechtol, a professor at the Marine Corps Command and Staff
College, warned in a seminar, "If (North Korea's) party breaks up
and its military undergoes a factional power struggle before a
successor to Kim builds his power base, internal warfare may break
out in the North." Dr. James Przystup with the Institute for
National Strategic Studies (INSS) recently said in Seoul, "We should
prepare contingency measures, including comprehensive political and
economic plans."

Inside the Obama Administration, Secretary Clinton first mentioned
the North Korean succession issue specifically during her visit to
Seoul in February while mentioning the consequent possibility of
crisis. This was followed by other USG officials' remarks.
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs Michael
Nacht said in a July 15 House hearing that the U.S. would develop
all possible scenarios for the future of North Korea and come up
with countermeasures against them.

Adm. Timothy Keating, Commander of U.S. Pacific Command, said on
July 22, "We have plans with the U.S. Forces Korea and others in
place if the President tells us to execute those plans in the event
of some uncertain succession in the North."


STEPHENS