IN NORTHERN JAPAN LOCAL POLITICS IS LOCAL: LOOKING AT THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAPPORO 000015

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/J; INR BEN GOLDBERG

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: JA ECON PGOV
SUBJECT: IN NORTHERN JAPAN LOCAL POLITICS IS LOCAL: LOOKING AT THE
UPCOMING AKITA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION


1. (U) Japan's latest politics and money scandal highlights
in big round numbers the long and cozy relationship between
construction companies and northern Japan politicians of both
major political parties. Names have been named, including aides
to the sitting Akita governor, the colorful DPJ-affiliated
Sukeshiro Terata, yet the Akita Prefecture gubernatorial
election campaign will kick off on March 26 as a race between
personalities and local loyalties, not as a referendum on
national politics or illegal donations. So far three local
mayors have announced their candidacies - Akita Mayor Norihisa
Satake (61),Kosaka Town Mayor Hiroshi Kawaguchi (61),and
former Ugo Town Mayor Shoichiro Sato (56).


2. (U) Due to the collapse of opposition party alliances that
traditionally supported local candidates against the ruling
party (partly because of unhappiness with Governor Terata's
budget politics),this election has some curious endorsements.
Satake is supported by the ruling party LDP, the labor union
stronghold Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation),largely
made up of public employees, the minor opposition SDP, and the
Sokka Gakkai affiliated, ruling coalition member, Komeito.
Satake is in the lead at the moment, but there is no guarantee
he will keep the advantage. Kawaguchi is popular among Akita
citizens who see him as a local hero who can revitalize the
ailing economy.

Akita Prefecture ranks nationally 41st among 47
prefectures in average income - about 59 percent of the Tokyo
figure - and economic production is off more than 14 percent
from last year. Unemployment and bankruptcies are also way up.
Scandal cases do not really affect rural area voting behavior
since they often benefit from infrastructure largesse.
Independent voters, about 40 % of the eligible voters and mainly
resident in Akita City, will be the deciding factor.

The Candidates


3. (U) Representing the central, urban part of the
prefecture, Satake, the 21st generation scion of the Satake clan
which governed Akita in feudal Japan, is a former employee of
the Akita Prefectural Government. He ran for governor with LDP
endorsement and lost 12 years ago to Terata for a seat suddenly
vacated in the wake of another money scandal directly involving
the then incumbent who was an LDP member. This time, Satake
will run as an independent, although supported by the LDP and
Komeito, and backers more usually found in the opposition camp:
RENGO Akita and the SDP Akita Chapter. He enjoys high name
recognition from his "old money" family, as well as from his
position as president of the National Mayors Association. He
stands to benefit most from the independent voting bloc.


4. (U) From the north, Kawaguchi is famous in the prefecture
for his Horatio Alger background and his "green" image. Born
into a farm family, he went to college in Tokyo and paid his way
through by operating a street cart ramen noodle stand. After
returning home, he became a town assembly member in 1984 and
mayor in 1990. He is now serving his 5th term. Under his
leadership, Kosaka Town has prospered by focusing on recycling:
producing fertilizer from kitchen garbage, planting rape seed in
unused plots of land to produce oil and alternative light diesel
fuel, and extracting noble metals out of scrapped computers and
other electronic equipment using technology from the obsolete
mining industry that was the town's economic base in the past.
By 2006, the average per capita income of Kosaka rose to second
in the prefecture, up from 25th. The town is financially
self-sufficient from a steady corporate revenue base. Kawaguchi
can credibly claim that he, of all the candidates, can best see
the world from the voters' point of view and cure the ailing
prefectural economy.

(U) The LDP considered throwing their support behind
the popular Kawaguchi. But, after the DPJ announced their
official support, with Governor Terata expected to follow with a
personal endorsement, the LDP chose to support Satake instead.
Kawaguchi has a base of non-partisan support including Komeito.
Tetsuzo Fuyushiba, former Minister of Land, Transport, and
Infrastructure, attended a Kawaguchi supporters' party held in
Tokyo earlier this month. Former LDP Lower House Member (and
postal privatization opponent) Hosei Norota and his supporters
openly back Kawaguchi. The mayor will play to his "self-made
man" persona and may attract independents by holding out the
promise of change, Obama-style, his old-guard political backers
notwithstanding.


5. (U) From the south, Sato, who, after graduating from an
agricultural high school in Akita, studied agriculture in the

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U.S. in the late Seventies on a Japanese government agricultural
trainee program. He became a Ugo Town assembly member at the
age of 27, the youngest among assembly members at the time. He
ran for mayor and was elected, at 42, the youngest in the
prefecture, in 1995. He challenged Terata in 2005 on an LDP
ticket, but lost. Although he has farm appeal, Sato's dark
horse candidacy will likely not amount to much.

DPJ-Rengo Coalition Breaks Down over Public Employee Interests


6. (U) DPJ-supported Governor Terata's successful control of
the past three elections, as well as his party's consistent
showing in the 2005 Lower House and the 2007 Upper House races
was primarily based on a strong campaign coalition between the
DPJ Akita Chapter and the SDP Akita brokered by Rengo Akita.
But this time, Rengo is putting its support behind the LDP
candidate.

(U) Our sources at the local newspaper, Akita
Sakigake, say that one of the reasons for the Rengo departure is
their disgruntlement with the aggressive approach of Governor
Terata who cut Prefectural government employee salaries to
balance the budget. The SDP, protective of the strongly leftist
teacher union interests, is also displeased that the
straight-talking Governor publicly disclosed the results of the
national achievement tests for elementary and junior high school
students.

Political Parties in Disarray


7. (U) Although the Nishimatsu scandal has not created a
public backlash in northern Japan, it has made everyone leery of
inviting national-level politicians to stump for the candidates,
throwing conventional campaign tactics into confusion.
Currently, no DPJ executive members are scheduled to come
although Party leader Ichiro Ozawa and acting leader Naoto Kan
visited Akita several times during the election campaign period
of the 2007 Upper House election and made several appearances
last year. Meanwhile, according to the LDP Akita Chapter,
LDP-supported Satake has so far refused any campaign assistance
from the LDP Tokyo Head Office, declining to have anything to do
with the circle around the deeply unpopular Prime Minister Taro
Aso. LDP Election Campaign Strategy Headquarters Vice President
Suga is scheduled to be in Yuzawa City, Akita on March 22 to
support a LDP candidate running against the incumbent Japan
Communist Party mayor. Suga will pass through Akita City at
that time, but is not making a special trip.

(U) The three candidates have not announced election
pledges or manifestoes yet. We expect economic issues, not
political issues, will remain front and center in this race.
WELTON