CHILE'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE: POLL POINTS TO A PHOTO

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000615

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV CI
SUBJECT: CHILE'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE: POLL POINTS TO A PHOTO
FINISH

REF: A. SANTIAGO 579

B. SANTIAGO 548

C. SANTIAGO 524


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: According to the well-respected Center for
Public Studies (CEP) poll released on June 18, Chile's
presidential race is headed for a run-off between the
opposition Alianza coalition's Sebastian Pinera and the
governing Concertacion coalition's Eduardo Frei. Analysts
agree that the second round election will be tight, with the
winner emerging with 51 to 52 percent. Center-left pundits
interpret the CEP poll as a positive signal for Frei because
of the Concertacion's track record of pulling together before
elections, the Bachelet government's record approval ratings,
and Pinera's downward momentum. Center-right observers think
Pinera will win because of a weakened Concertacion and voter
hunger for change. One far-right pundit expressed pessimism
at Pinera's chances in light of the CEP poll and cited
growing divisions among conservatives, but said there is time
for a turnaround. Both candidates will campaign with an eye
towards attracting upstart, independent candidate
Enriquez-Ominami and his supporters in the second round. END
SUMMARY

POLL SHOWS TIGHT RACE, PINERA TRENDING DOWN
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2. (SBU) The June 18 release of Chile's most respected
public opinion barometer, the CEP poll, showed Sebastian
Pinera -- from the center-right National Renewal (RN) party
and part of the opposition Alianza coalition -- in the lead
with support from 34 percent of registered voters, followed
by Eduardo Frei -- from the center-left Christian Democrat
(DC) party and part of the governing Concertacion coalition
-- with 30 percent, and upstart, independent candidate Marco
Enriquez-Ominami with 14 percent. Pinera and Frei were tied
at 39 percent in the likely second round run-off. The poll
also reported a record 66 percent approval rating for
President Bachelet.


3. (SBU) Pinera's overall support has dropped seven percent
since the December 2008 CEP poll (from 41 down to 34
percent),and his numbers are trending down on a variety of
attributes, including his ability to solve the country's
problems (from 45 down to 40 percent),sincerity (from 35
down to 31 percent),and trustworthiness (from 49 down to 44
percent). Frei's numbers met or slightly exceeded
expectations in overall support. He registered gains when
compared to the December 2008 poll in specific attributes
such as inspiring confidence (from 50 up to 58 percent) and
his preparedness to be president (from 56 up to 65 percent),
where he outdoes Pinera by nearly 10 points. Higher numbers
for Frei were expected due to the fact that, during the
December poll, he was only one among several possible
Concertacion presidential candidates while the June poll is
the first to measure support for Frei as the only
Concertacion candidate.


4. (SBU) The poll confirmed that Deputy Enriquez-Ominami, who
recently resigned from the Socialist Party (PS) to run as an
independent, has enough support from registered voters to
impact the first round, but is unlikely to seriously
challenge the main candidates. Of the registered voters
surveyed in the poll, 52 percent who opted for
Enriquez-Ominami in the first round would vote for Frei in
the second round, while 22 percent would support Pinera.
Nineteen percent reported they would abstain and six percent
were undecided.

ALL SIGNS POINT TO RUN OFF, BUT OUTCOME IS UNCLEAR
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5. (SBU) Election observers from across the political
spectrum agreed the race will remain close and result in a
run-off between Frei and Pinera, with the winner taking up to
52 percent of the vote. Pundits also concurred that
Enriquez-Ominami's support will decline, predicting the 36
year old parliamentarian will receive from seven to ten
percent of votes in the first round. With elections more
than five months away, analysts noted the campaign is only
just beginning and highlighted upcoming debates and the
negotiation of congressional candidate lists as key
indicators to track.


6. (SBU) Center-left analysts argued the CEP poll points
towards a second-round Frei victory. They believe
traditional Concertacion voters will be joined by at least
half of Enriquez-Ominami's supporters to deliver the
election. The Concertacion has a history of being
disorganized early on, but always manages to unite behind its
candidate when it counts. Observers noted that Frei's
agreement to end Communist Party exclusion from Congress --
by agreeing to run Communist candidates on Concertacion lists
in select districts -- was a shrewd decision that could
generate an important one to two percent from the far left.
Record approval ratings for President Bachelet and lukewarm
support from Chile's far-right will make it extremely
difficult for Pinera to cobble together 51 percent in the
second round.


7. (SBU) Center-right analysts disagreed and claimed the CEP
poll shows signs of a Pinera victory. They highlighted the
fact that the Alianza has never held a lead in the polls at
this stage of the race and argued that Enriquez-Ominami's
emergence underscores a hunger for change. They seized on
the weakness of the Concertacion parties, noting the PS has
three former members running for President. (NOTE: Candidates
Enriquez-Ominami, Senator Alejandro Navarro, and Jorge Arrate
are all ex-PS. END NOTE.) Several months ago, these analysts
believed Pinera's only chance at winning was a first round
knockout. The CEP poll revealed the possibility of a second
round triumph if Pinera can rally members (believed to be
lukewarm to Pinera) of the far-right Independent Democratic
Union (UDI) party -- the other half of the Alianza coalition
-- and attract at least one-third of Enriquez-Ominami's
voters.


8. (SBU) One far-right observer expressed pessimism at
Pinera's chances, stating that a hoped-for 40 percent support
in the CEP poll was a psychological barrier that Pinera
failed to surpass. He lamented Pinera's inability to craft a
coherent campaign message. Moreover, a recent controversy
over Pinera's support for government distribution of the
"morning-after pill" in Chile highlighted the latent
divisions within the Alianza coalition. Social conservatives
doubt Pinera's commitment to defending their positions, rural
conservatives think Pinera is favoring his own RN party's
congressional candidates over UDI candidates, and true-blood
nationalist conservatives have always questioned Pinera's
credentials because of his opposition to Pinochet during the
1988 plebiscite. The growing divide between Pinera and the
various conservative constituencies will make it difficult to
garner campaign support and generate strong conservative
turn-out in the first and second rounds.

SUPPORT FOR ENRIQUEZ-OMINAMI REFLECTS DISAFFECTION
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9. (SBU) Analysts agreed that the young, media-savy,
inde-pendent Enriquez-Ominami polls well among voters who are
disaffected by political parties and turned off by the other
candidates. These voters are primarily Concertacion members,
the far-left, and newly politically engaged young people.
Enriquez-Ominami's candidacy is perceived by political
observers as a product of generous media coverage. One
analyst even argues, with numbers in hand, that the
politically conservative media holding company that owns El
Mercurio increased its coverage of Enriquez-Ominami in April
and early May in order to impact the CEP poll (and thus, the
argument goes, generate more competition for Frei). This
coverage, combined with the candidate's open discussion about
controversial issues such as gay marriage and the
"morning-after pill", explains his surprising rise in the
polls.


10. (SBU) Analysts noted that Enriquez-Ominami never expected
to be in this position, so he has little to lose. His
inexperience, undetermined policies, and lack of
institutional support make it unlikely that he can seriously
challenge Frei and Pinera. The CEP poll showed that 58
percent of registered voters have already decided they will
not vote for him. Still, he continues to pick up steam, the
latest being Humanist and Green party endorsements and the
addition of his father, prominent Senator Carlos Ominami, to
his campaign after resigning from the PS on June 27.
Analysts acknowledged that both Frei and Pinera will campaign
with an eye on Enriquez-Ominami voters for the second round.


COMMENT
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11. (SBU) While the elections are still five months away, the
challenges facing the main candidates are clear. Pinera must
attempt to simultaneously rally his base and court
Enriquez-Ominami voters. He especially needs the UDI to
actively campaign and get out the vote. Frei will try to
focus all of his attention on Pinera for the first round,
then attempt to unite the Concertacion and pull disaffected
voters back to fold for the second round. Even if
Enriquez-Ominami has benefited from generous press coverage,
his numbers reflect legitimate dissatisfaction with Chile's
political parties and candidates. He has almost no chance of
winning, but his unexpected candidacy has added color to an
otherwise predictable campaign. END COMMENT.
SIMONS