CHILE 2009 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS PRIMER

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000404

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: CHILE 2009 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS PRIMER

REF: A) Santiago 367
B) Santiago 270
C) 07 Santiago 1993
D) 08 Santiago 126


1. (U) Summary: Chile's presidential elections will take place in
December 2009. While the two main coalitions have their candidates
-- Eduardo Frei for the ruling Concertacion coalition and Sebastian
Pinera for the opposition coalition Alianza -- a number of other
contenders remain in the game. With eight months to go, the
competition is beginning to heat up. Here is a look at the
electoral process and the current issues in play in Chile's upcoming
national elections. End Summary.

Presidential Elections: Fifty plus One to Win
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2. (U) Chile's presidential elections are currently scheduled to
take place on Friday, December 11. (Note: The government is
putting forth legislation that, if approved, would change the
elections to Sunday, December 13, in order to avoid the economic
side-effects of an additional holiday in 2009. End note.) Election
day is a holiday in Chile and alcohol sales are prohibited beginning
the evening before. The president-elect will take office in March
2010 and serve a four-year term, without the possibility of
immediate re-election.


3. (U) In order to win in the first round of voting, a candidate
must receive 50 percent of the votes plus one. If no single
candidate receives fifty percent -- a likely scenario in this year's
race (Ref A) -- a second round of voting will take place in January

2010. Because the Christmas and New Year's holidays mark the
beginning of Chile's summer vacation season, many voters are often
away from their polling place for the second round of presidential
elections. As there are no absentee voter mechanisms in place,
those individuals who cannot vote because they are geographically
too distant will have to abstain.

Presidential Candidates -- Eight Months and Counting
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4. (U) Candidates for president currently include:

-- Senator Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle is a Christian Democrat, son of
an ex-President (Frei Montalva 1964-1970),and former President
himself (1994-2000). Frei recently won the ruling coalition primary
(Ref B) to become the single Concertacion candidate representing the
Socialist Party (PS),the Party for Democracy (PPD),the Radical
Social Democrat Party (PRSD),and his own Christian Democrats (DC).

-- Sebastian Pinera, who lost to Michelle Bachelet in 2006, is the
opposition Alianza coalition candidate, representing his own party,
National Renewal (RN),and the Independent Democratic Union party
(UDI).

-- Senator Adolfo Zaldivar, who was expelled from the DC at the end
of 2007 (Ref C),is running with support from the Regional
Independent Party (PRI).

-- Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami, PS, is running without having left
his party despite the Concertacion proclamation of Frei as its
single candidate.

-- Senator Alejandro Navarro left the Socialist party to represent
the "Broad Social Movement" (Movimiento Amplio Social, or MAS).

-- Jorge Arrate left the Socialist party to run for president. He
was recently selected to represent the Communist/Humanist coalition
"Together We Can" (Junto Podemos, or JP).

Aging Voters and Historical Voting Patterns
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5. (U) Chile's voters -- and their political allegiances
-- have changed little in the last twenty years. A majority of
Chile's electorate of roughly eight million are the same voters who
registered to participate in the 1988 plebiscite that ousted
dictator Pinochet and ushered in the transition to democracy. It is
an aging population due to the fact that few younger citizens
register to vote. While new legislation to make registration

automatic and voting voluntary has been approved by Congress, it is
unlikely that automatic registration will be implemented in time for
this year's presidential election (Ref D).


6. (U) Relatively few younger Chileans have registered to vote, so
electoral decisions rest largely in the hands of the Pinochet-era
generation. Most of these voters still vote along the divide of the
1988 plebiscite: those that voted no against the Pinochet
dictatorship (Concertacion) and those that voted for the
continuation of the military government (Alianza). While many older
center-left voters may be tired of the Concertacion, they may not be
able to bring themselves to vote for a rightist candidate like
Pinera (though he has declared that he himself voted no in 1988).
Many on the left will choose to vote for a minority candidate in the
first round and then give their support to the Concertacion in an
eventual runoff.


7. (U) In 1989 and 1993, the Concertacion won the presidency in the
first round, but the progressive coalition needed to get to a runoff
in the last two elections:

-- 1989 Concertacion (Aylwin) 55 percent in Round 1
Mil. government (Buchi) 29 percent
Independent (Errazuriz) 15 percent

-- 1993 Concertacion (Frei) 57.98 percent in Round 1
UDI (Alessandri) 24.41 percent
Independent (J. Pinera) 6.18 percent

-- 2000 Concertacion (Lagos) 51.31 percent in Round 2
Alianza (Lavin) 48.69 percent

-- 2006 Concertacion (Bachelet) 53.5 percent in Round 2
Alianza (S. Pinera) 46.5 percent

Opposition Needs a First-Round Win
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8. (U) Concertacion analysts argue that the 48 to 49 percent that
Alianza candidate Lavin received in 2000 is the threshold that
Sebastian Pinera faces this year as the opposition candidate to the
Concertacion. In addition, pundits point out that Lavin's populist
style allowed him to capture many low-income voters that would
usually vote Concertacion. Pinera, a wealthy businessman, is not
necessarily going to draw those same voters, though he may be more
able to draw centrist voters away from the Concertacion than Lavin
did. Either way, opinion makers argue that Pinera needs to win in
the first round to become Chile's next president. Even political
analysts on the right have admitted that it is hard to make the
numbers add up for a first-round Alianza win, barring a significant
change to the electoral registry.

Concertacion Needs the Left for a Second-Round Win
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9. (U) Frei, on the other hand, will need the support of
independent minority candidates -- and most especially the Juntos
Podemos (JP) coalition and the Communist Party -- to beat Pinera in
a runoff. The percentage of votes that go to third and fourth party
candidates in the first-round election has fluctuated from over 10
percent in 1993 (when now candidate Frei won by a landslide) to 4.5
percent in 1999 to 5.4 percent in 2005. Because the support of the
JP is so crucial for a Concertacion win in the likely scenario of a
runoff, the Concertacion is in discussions with the Communist Party
(PC) regarding how to best end the "exclusion" of the PC from
Congress, which is the effective result of Chile's binomial
electoral system (septel to follow).

Both Candidates Need the Center
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10. (U) Chile is known for its "three-thirds" tendency in voting:
left, center and right have historically received roughly 33 percent
of the votes when running separate candidates. The runoff system
breaks that historical pattern by making it impossible to win an
initial election with 33 percent of the vote, forcing a runoff
election between the two highest vote-getters. However, in the 1993
election, Frei received nearly 60 percent of the votes, while two
conservative independents together received roughly 30 percent of
the votes. Frei won at that time with the highest majority ever
recorded in Chilean elections. His challenge this year -- he is
polling around 46 percent -- is how to attract enough centrist
voters to make it to a runoff. Meanwhile, his opponent Pinera will
be after those same voters.

Apathy and Low Participation Are a Concern of All
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11. (U) Both main candidates will also be facing voter apathy and
abstention, despite mandatory voting. The percentage of registered
voters that don't vote in presidential elections has increased
steadily since the return to democracy: five percent in 1989; nine
percent in 1993; 10 percent in 1999; and 12 percent in 2005. In
October's municipal elections, 16 percent of registered voters
failed to cast ballots. This year's election pits two main
candidates that have been in politics for over 20 years: Frei and
Pinera ran against each other for a Senate seat in 1989 (Frei won).
Voter abstention rates could go even higher this year.

COMMENT
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12. (SBU) With eight months to go, the presidential competition
between the government candidate Eduardo Frei and businessman
Sebastian Pinera is intensifying. While Frei has recently been
proclaimed the Concertacion coalition's candidate, Sebastian Pinera
has been in the race since he ran for president in the last general
election four years ago. Support for a field of smaller,
independent candidates will be a deciding factor in whether the
presidential election will end in a runoff. End Comment.

URBAN