CHILE: CONCERTACION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FACE

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000310

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: CHILE: CONCERTACION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FACE
FIRST PRIMARIES APRIL 5

REF: SANTIAGO 304


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On April 5, the center-left Concertacion
coalition will hold primaries in Chile's O'Higgins (VI) and
Maule (VII) regions between former President and current
Senator Eduardo Frei and upstart challenger Senator Jose
Antonio Gomez. The Concertacion has no set process for
choosing presidential candidates, and this year opted for
primaries to be held on a rolling regional basis, likely
because subsequent primaries could be canceled if Frei
trounces his rival as expected. Voter turnout in this first
regional primary is expected to be low. Concertacion leaders
fear--with good reason--that the Alianza coalition will use
low rates of participation to bolster their claims that the
Concertacion coalition is fatigued and the public's patience
with twenty years of Concertacion rule is nearing an end.
End Summary.

Primary Election Primer
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2. (U) Unlike in the United States, Chile's political
parties have no set rules for how to choose their political
candidates. The conservative Alianza coalition has always
relied on an informal process of polls and internal
consultations, and has never held a primary. The center-left
Concertacion coalition held primaries twice before: in 1993,
when Eduardo Frei (Christian Democrat--DC) defeated Ricardo
Lagos (Socialist Party--PS/Party for Democracy--PPD),and in
1999, when Ricardo Lagos (PS/PPD) defeated Andres Zaldivar
(DC). In 2004, DC candidate Soledad Alvear withdrew before
planned primaries when polls showed that Socialist candidate
Michelle Bachelet had a substantial lead. In each of the
primaries, the rules were negotiated during the electoral
year.


3. (SBU) The political rules for choosing a candidate
continued to evolve this year. As the possibility of a
primary swirled around the Concertacion camp, Frei's
willingness to participate set him apart early on from
Ricardo Lagos, another former president, who was perceived as
arrogant for his reluctance to agree to a primary. Once
Lagos, OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza, and DC
hopeful Soledad Alvear withdrew from the race, the withdrawal
of Radical Social Democrat party (PRSD) candidate Jose
Antonio Gomez and Frei's emergence as the Concertacion
candidate seemed all but certain. Only gradually did
Concertacion leaders realize that Gomez had no plans to stand
down, and that Frei would be pushed into a primary against
him.


4. (U) In contrast to previous Concertacion primaries, which
were between more evenly matched competitors, this year's
primaries are scheduled for six dates in different
regions--April 5 in central Chile, April 19 in northern
Chile, April 26 in southern Chile, May 3 in Valparaiso, May
10 in BioBio Region, and May 17 in the Santiago area.
(Comment: Although never explicitly stated, the obvious
advantage of this staggered schedule is that later primaries
could be canceled if Gomez withdraws during the process. End
Comment.) Under continued pressure to withdraw from the
race, Gomez first promised to withdraw if he did not win at
least 10% in the first primary. Later, he and Frei agreed
that if either candidate beat the other by 20 points or more
in the first primary, the trailing candidate would withdraw.

Apathy, Frei's Lead, and Lack of Awareness Likely to Spell
Low Voter Turnout
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) The April 5 election is open to all registered
voters in the O'Higgins (VI) and Maule (VII) regions who are
Concertacion party members or independents. Local leaders
expect turnout to be 10% or less of this figure. Gabriel
Diaz, PRSD Regional Secretary told Poloff March 30 that a
turnout of 40,000 voters would be "great."


6. (SBU) Political apathy, Frei's clear advantage, a lack of
public awareness of the election, and competing public events
are all likely to hurt voter turnout. Many Chileans seem to
feel stuck between two unappealing political choices: the
continuation of Concertacion's 20-year dominance of Chilean
politics, or backing a political alliance which is still

affiliated with Pinochet, at least in the eyes of those old
enough to have lived through the regime. Particularly as
younger leaders, like the DC's "young princes," find that it
is difficult to gain a voice within the political structure,
voters are increasingly disenchanted with the shuffling of
the same faces from one government post to another. In
addition, as a former President, Frei's victory over a
little-known senator from a small party seems assured, and
the lack of perceived urgency in the race may keep would-be
Frei voters at home.


7. (SBU) In conversations with Poloff March 30, local
political leaders lamented the lack of public awareness of
the election. In previous primaries, the elections were held
on the same day throughout the country, and so the process
received widespread media attention. Because this election
will be held in just two provinces, both outside large
cities, it has attracted little attention in the national
press and many eligible voters are unaware of it.


8. (SBU) Another obstacle is that the primary coincides with
the biggest local event of the year in Rancagua, the capital
of the O'Higgins region. The national rodeo championships
and accompanying huaso (Chilean cowboy) festival will compete
with the elections for voters' attention and will draw
thousands of potential voters away from their polling places.

Preparing at the Last Minute
--------------


9. (SBU) Concertacion leaders in the O'Higgins Region, just
south of Santiago, described a scramble to make logistical
arrangements for primaries on April 5. A PPD commune leader
told Poloff that the primaries were being organized "a la
Chilena"--at the last minute and with almost no funding.
Socialist Regional President Cristo Cucumides, who seemed
taken aback by his PPD colleague's frankness, assured Poloff
that the primaries would run smoothly and that the parties
would back the winner--even if it were upstart Gomez
(reftel). On the PRSD side, Regional Secretary Gabriel Diaz
noted that the party was having trouble finding enough
volunteers to serve as poll workers.


10. (SBU) Meanwhile, coordinating with the city's mayor, a
member of the staunchly conservative Democratic Union Party
(UDI),was somewhat challenging. Schools often serve as
polling places during the general election, but, according to
Frei campaign organizers, Mayor Eduardo Soto was slow to
grant permission for the Concertacion to use the city's
schools for the primary. Intendente Hector Huenchullan
confirmed that, as in a general election, his office will
provide security, although the Carabineros will be deployed
for this primary rather than the military as in general
elections.

Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) Frei and the three largest Concertacion parties
have the potential for minimal gains or big losses in this
weekend's primaries. Given the expectations of a resounding
Frei victory, an overwhelming Frei win will be just a ho-hum
formality on the road to the official Concertacion
endorsement. In contrast, if Gomez could manage the unlikely
feat of garnering 40% or more of the votes cast, it will
raise serious doubts about the Frei's ability to energize
voters. Meanwhile, voter turnout is likely to be quite low,
and this will only play into the hands of the Alianza, who
claim that the Concertacion coalition has run out of new
ideas and energy and that voters are fed up with continuous
Concertacion rule.
SIMONS