CONCERTACION CHALLENGER GOMEZ MAKES A NAME FOR

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000304

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SENV ECON CI
SUBJECT: CONCERTACION CHALLENGER GOMEZ MAKES A NAME FOR
HIMSELF, THOUGH FREI STILL FAR AHEAD


1. (SBU) Summary: Through tireless old-fashioned
campaigning and an extensive internet effort, upstart
presidential contender Jose Antonio Gomez has emerged as a
persistent progressive leader and irritant to Concertacion

front runner Eduardo Frei. Gomez, who is a senator and
president of the Radical Social Democrat (PRSD) party, has
little chance of besting Frei in this weekend's primary in
the O'Higgins and Maule regions, but has succeeded in
becoming a recognized political figure, positioning himself
well for a possible run in 2014. Meanwhile, the combination
of expected low turnout and Gomez's aggressive campaign could
give the dark horse a substantial minority of the vote,
bolstering Alianza's efforts to portray Frei as the tired
candidate of a tired coalition. End Summary.

Gomez Gains Concertacion Stalwart Slow to Engage
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2. (SBU) Pro-Frei Concertacion leaders in Rancagua, the
capital of the O'Higgins (VI) region, told Poloff March 30
they were frustrated that their national party leadership had
been slow to engage in the primary process. During the past
two months, PRSD Senator and former Justice Minister Jose
Antonio Gomez tirelessly campaigned in the O'Higgins (VI) and
Maule (VII) regions. His efforts have included substantial
press work, an Obama-style internet marketing blitz with an
online TV station and text messaging, and many personal
appearances in the region. Meanwhile, national leaders of
the other Concertacion parties--the Christian Democrats (DC),
the Party for Democracy (PPD),and the Socialists
(PS)--expected that Gomez would succumb to pressure to bow
out of the race, and so did not take primary campaigning
seriously.


3. (SBU) Mario Quijada, DC regional president, complained
that he and his fellow local Concertacion leaders had been
working very hard in February campaigning for Frei, while
national level leaders were on vacation. (Comment: The
Chilean press reported that Frei himself spent February
largely on vacation, while both Gomez and Alianza candidate
Sebastian Pinera spent their summer "vacations" on the
campaign trail. End Comment.) Others echoed this
frustration, with the Intendente Hector Huenchullan (DC)
saying in a separate conversation that he regarded January,
February, and March as "lost time" that the DC, PPD, and PS
had ceded to the PRSD.


4. (SBU) Gomez took advantage of that inattention to make
substantial inroads in the region. Although still trailing
far behind Frei, Gomez has gained impressive ground in the
last few months. In December, he was considered such a long
shot that--despite being a declared candidate, sitting
senator, and president of his party--he was not even included
in polls. By early March, in a poll measuring voting
intentions during the Concertacion primary, he had reached
17.2% support vs. Frei's 55%. After his intense campaign
work in the sixth and seventh regions in the past few weeks,
his share of the vote could be even higher.

Frei and Gomez Face Off in March 30 Debate
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5. (U) On March 30, Eduardo Frei and Jose Antonio Gomez
engaged in their first (and likely only) public debate,
broadcast in the O'Higgins and Maule regions. Both
candidates expressed admiration for the current
administration and voiced support for strengthening the role
of the state in response to the global financial crisis. A
telephone poll revealed that 49% of those interviewed judged
Frei to have emerged victorious, outperforming Gomez in the
discussion of employment, education, the economy, and
regional issues. Gomez was better-received only on
value-laden issues like abortion. In a surprising move, Frei
announced his support for legalizing "therapeutic abortion",
a move some see as a political maneuver designed to appease
progressive voters. (Note: "Therapeutic abortion" refers to
procedures performed when the life or health of the mother or
fetus are in danger. All abortions are currently illegal in
Chile. End Note.)


6. (U) On the subject of the environment, Frei demanded the
diversification of energy sources, while Gomez was careful to
point out that diversification, while necessary, must not be

undertaken at the expense of Chile's fragile ecosystems.
Both candidates also tackled the role of unregulated big
business in the current economic downturn. Gomez took a
particularly strong position, calling for the harsh
punishment of executives and the revocation of business
licenses. Frei and Gomez agreed on the necessity of
expanding Chile's commitment to higher education, with Frei
making specific mention of the need for world class
technology education centers.

What Comes Next
--------------


7. (SBU) Concertacion leaders in the O'Higgins region and
across the country are eager for Gomez--whom they see as an
irritant to the all-but-annointed Concertacion candidate
Frei--to officially be out of the running. Cecilia
Villalobos, the PPD Regional Vice President, told Poloff that
the distraction of Gomez and two Concertacion candidates is
hurting Frei in the polls. For Villalobos, Gomez's
candidacy, as well as the renegade candidacy of Socialist
parliamentarian Marco Enriquez-Ominami and the November 2008
decision of Alejandro Navarro to leave the Socialists to form
his own leftist party, highlights fractures in the
Concertacion coalition.


8. (SBU) Both Frei and Gomez supporters are optimistic that
their candidates would win a general election against Frei.
Villalobos asserted that "global conditions" favor the
Concertacion, as Chileans support the progressive response to
the financial crisis, including a bigger role for the state.
For his part, PRSD Regional Secretary Gabriel Diaz is
confident that if Gomez can win the primary, he'll win the
general election, highlighting that surveys show that very
few voters reject him, while both Pinera and Frei have
relatively high rejection rates.

Gomez Catapulting Himself onto the Political Stage
-------------- --------------


9. (SBU) Analysts are still guessing at the reasons behind
Gomez's seemingly hopeless but unrelenting campaign. While
at first it seemed likely that his persistence was a
bargaining chip to be traded for more PRSD spots on the
parliamentary ballot in December's elections, now his
motivations seem more personal. Gomez, who came from way
behind to defeat Frei's sister, Carmen Frei, in a race for a
northern Chile Senate seat in 2005, seems to be positioning
himself as a presidential contender in 2014. If so, he has
been spectacularly successful in increasing his name
recognition and emerging as a political player. As his
O'Higgins region party secretary told us, "He has already
won."

Comment
--------------


10. (SBU) While it is very unlikely that Gomez would best
Frei in the April 5 primary, he may well be more successful
than many Concertacionistas expect. Gomez's impressive
internet and ground campaign may bring in a critical mass of
PRSD members as well as independents and supporters from
other Concertacion parties. And in an election where total
turn out is likely to be less than 10% (reftel),even a
relatively small number of Gomez votes could have a
significant impact.
SIMONS