SALVADORAN ELECTIONS: STRONG FMLN PERFORMANCE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000060

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
SUBJECT: SALVADORAN ELECTIONS: STRONG FMLN PERFORMANCE;
ARENA WINS SAN SALVADOR MAYOR

REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 00002

B. SAN SALVADOR 00045

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. Summary: While (conservative, pro-U.S.) ARENA won the
Sunday's headline race for San Salvador city hall, taking it
from the FMLN after 12 years, it was otherwise a good day for
the (left-wing) FMLN. Based on current returns (75 percent)
that may fluctuate significantly before final numbers are in,
the FMLN increased its seats in the Assembly from 32 to 35.
ARENA dropped from 34 to 32. Current figures show the
(right-wing) PCN, current ARENA partner, with 11, the
(center-right, pro-U.S.) PDC 5, and (left-wing) CD (allied
with FMLN) with 1. (center-left) FDR received no deputies.
If this holds, the PCN will be able to form a majority in the
84-seat assembly by allying with either ARENA or the FMLN.
The PCN has been allied with ARENA in the outgoing Assembly
but has been holding talks with the FMLN. Aside from the San
Salvador result, the FMLN made substantial municipal gains.
Current returns give ARENA between 108 and 118
municipalities, down from 147, 77 to 86 for the FMLN (up from
59),28 to 35 for the PCN (down from 39),and 9 for the PDC
(down from 14). ARENA's victory in San Salvador provides a
much needed boost to its presidential candidate, but the
temporary lift will not be sufficient in and of itself.
Isolated incidents aside, polling day was quiet. Embassy
carried out a robust program of election observations. End
Summary.

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Legislative Results
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2. (C) Returns from the legislative elections have been
swinging wildly as the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
continues to tally results. This is mainly due to the nature
of the system, in which a small number of votes generally
decides the final seat in a given department (Ref A). As
there are 14 departments, there are at least that many seats
that will be uncertain until the final vote counts are in.
That said, the current breakdown, with 75.25 percent of votes
in, shows the FMLN in the lead with 35 seats (an increase of
three) and ARENA close behind with 32 (a decrease of two).
As expected, neither will approach a majority (43 seats). If
the numbers hold, the PCN (currently allied with ARENA in the
Assembly) would have 11 seats (up from 9),the PDC would hold
5, CD (in alliance with the FMLN) would hold a single seat,
and the FDR would not have any. (Note: The PCN's totals
illustrate the rapidly fluctuating election returns. The
initial numbers that the media reported on Election Night
said that the PCN would only win three legislative seats, and
two days later, that number had jumped to 11. End Note.)
With these figures, the PCN would be in a powerful bargaining
position, with the ability to form a majority with either the
FMLN or ARENA. An FMLN source told us they have been
negotiating with the PCN for some time (Ref A).

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Municipal Results
--------------


3. (U) There were some surprises in the municipal races. In
San Salvador, incumbent FMLN mayor Violeta Menjivar, who had
been at least five points ahead in the polling in the weeks
leading up to the elections, lost to ARENA challenger Norman
Quijano. With 77 percent of the votes confirmed, Quijano
held a 50 to 47 percent edge, which was enough for Menjivar
to concede defeat on January 19. The FMLN had been in
control of San Salvador since 1997, but Quijano ran a
tireless campaign, and there had been widespread
dissatisfaction with the job done by Menjivar.


4. (U) Despite the significant setback in San Salvador, the
FMLN made substantial gains overall in municipal races. They
took the hotly-contested race in Santa Ana, deposing the
incumbent PDC mayor by an ample margin. Recent polling had
suggested a three-way deadlock in that race. Overall,
(conservative news daily) La Prensa Grafica is reporting that
ARENA has 108 municipal wins, which would be down nearly 40
from its previous 147. (Note: (Conservative daily) El Diario
de Hoy is reporting 118 for ARENA. As with the legislative
elections, there are many races to be finalized. End Note.)
La Prensa Grafica is reporting 86 municipal wins for the FMLN
(up from 59),28 for the PCN (down from 39),and 9 for the
PDC (down from 14). El Diario de Hoy is reporting 77 for the
FMLN, 35 for the PCN, and 9 for the PDC.

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Polling Atmospherics
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5. (C) Voter turnout was strong. La Prensa Grafica reports
that 57 percent of eligible voters cast ballots January 18,
up from 54 percent in 2006. Voting proceeded largely without
incident, though observers reported many cases of late poll
openings. OAS observers reported an average opening time of
7:39 (39 minutes late). During the day, local polling
officials closed four polling sites due to disputes. Three
of the four were later reopened. The other, San Isidro, in
the department of Cabanas, was closed for the day following
claims that Hondurans were being bused in and paid USD28 each
to vote. Emboff observers were present as these rumors
spread, polls were closed and failed to reopen in San Isidro.
Attorney General Felix Garrid Safie told us in the late
afternoon January 18 that the dispute originated because of
the small-town atmosphere at the polling station. Safie said
that when buses full of voters arrived that some people did
not know, those people assumed that the new arrivals were not
from their municipality, and fraud must be in play. Safie
said that the disputed voters were all on voter rolls and had
valid DUIs (Unique Identity Documents) with them. The TSE
opted to suspend voting for the day after realizing that
polling station officials had departed, and announced late
Monday that voting would resume in San Isidro January 25.
(Note: These votes have the potential to affect one Assembly
seat in the Cabanas Department.)


6. (U) Aside from the closed polls, there were minimal
irregularities. At the polling sites, there were occasional
reports of inconsistent ID checks, poorly placed voter rolls,
officials not checking for ink or not staining voters'
thumbs, and voters being turned away due to damaged DUIs. In
some cases, polling workers arrived wearing t-shirts with
party logos and candidate names, which delayed poll openings.
There was no evidence of large-scale fraud, and observers
were consistently satisfied with the process.


7. (SBU) The TSE's organization at the polling stations was
largely successful, but its post-election reporting has been
abysmal. The TSE continues to set self-imposed deadlines for
releasing election results, and then fails to meet them. As
of 12:00 PM January 20, there are still no definitive results
from the TSE. The organization's web site, the theoretical
chief public source of election data, has been inaccessible
since polls closed and many Salvadoran media sites have been
available only intermittently.

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Observer Missions
--------------


8. (SBU) The Embassy fielded fifteen teams of observers to
all fourteen Departments of El Salvador, with 35 observers in
total. In conjunction with DS, Embassy was able to use
GPS-enabled mobile phones to monitor the movements of all
teams (Ref B),and there were no security incidents. The OAS
fielded 82 international observers from nineteen countries
and judged that the elections ran smoothly with just a few
incidents as noted above. The EU election monitoring mission
of approximately 40 monitors called the elections "normal."
Several U.S.-based NGOs fielded observer teams, including the
Center for Exchange and Solidarity (CIS) and the Committee in
Solidarity with the People of El Salvador (CISPES). The
Ombudsman for Human Rights (PDDH),the government's human
rights watchdog, called the elections successful. The
NDI-supported (and USAID-funded) domestic observation effort
organized by San Salvador's Central American University
public opinion unit (IUDOP) fielded around 2,000 domestic
observers, largely university students, and planned to do a
"quick count" vote tally. Embassy teams viewed IUDOP
observers throughout the country. While the observer effort
successfully reported on late polling station openings and
other minor irregularities, IUDOP has been silent since
Sunday evening with no data yet to corroborate official vote
counts.

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Comment
--------------


9. (C) ARENA's victory in the San Salvador municipal race is
an important morale boost for the party that gives its
presidential candidate, Rodrigo Avila, an opportunity to
invigorate his campaign. But the boost from the San Salvador
victory will not be sufficient in and of itself ) ARENA and
Avila have to ensure ARENA supporters set aside the
resentment that lingers from the candidate-selection process.
Even if Avila does everything right, he faces a daunting
challenge in trying to close FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes'
double-digit lead in opinion polls.


10. (C) Comment continued: The San Salvador municipal result
was an exception in a day of strong performance by FMLN

candidates across the country. The party is poised to hold a
plurality of seats in the Legislative Assembly, but will fall
short of a controlling majority. As votes are still being
tallied, the composition of the Assembly is still in play,
but broadly speaking, the FMLN made significant gains, ARENA
fell back, and control of the Assembly will depend on the
PCN, PDC, or both. The bidding war (both literally and
figuratively) for the PCN's support will be fierce,
especially if the PCN alone is in a position to decide
whether the FMLN or ARENA controls the Assembly. If ARENA
and the PCN together can no longer reach the 43-vote
threshold to control the Assembly, ARENA is faced with the
unpleasant prospect of assembling and managing a difficult
coalition of both the PCN (a party already flirting with the
FMLN) and the PDC. The FMLN, on the other hand, can
concentrate its efforts on the PCN, simplifying both initial
negotiations and maintenance of that alliance going forward.
Much depends on the final distribution of seats in the
Legislative Assembly, the determination of which may still be
days away.
BLAU