Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09SANSALVADOR143
2009-02-13 21:05:00
SECRET
Embassy San Salvador
Cable title:  

EL SALVADOR ELECTION UPDATE: FEBRUARY 12

Tags:  PGOV KDEM KPLS ES 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHSN #0143/01 0442105
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 132105Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0715
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SAN SALVADOR 000143 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPLS ES
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR ELECTION UPDATE: FEBRUARY 12

REF: SAN SALVADOR 102

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

S E C R E T SAN SALVADOR 000143

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPLS ES
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR ELECTION UPDATE: FEBRUARY 12

REF: SAN SALVADOR 102

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary: This is an update regarding the presidential
elections scheduled for March 15. This report covers the
economic debate between economic advisors from the
(left-wing) Farabundo Marti Front for the National Liberation
Party (FMLN) and the (pro-U.S., center right) Nationalist
Republican Alliance Party (ARENA); public opposition by the
Ombudsman for Human Rights to the use of children in
political campaigns; the ARENA and FMLN attempts to woo San
Miguel Mayor Wil Salgado, a member of the (pro-U.S., center
right) Christian Democratic Party (PDC); and the controversy
surrounding the removal of (center-right) National
Conciliation Party (PCN) presidential candidate Tomas Chevez
from the ballot. Overall, the race has tightened and is too
close to call.

--------------
A PUBLIC DEBATE ON ECONOMIC ISSUES
--------------


2. (U) With less than six weeks until the March 15
presidential election, economic advisors from ARENA and the
FMLN held a televised economic debate February 8. The debate
covered the parties, economic plans, the ongoing economic
crisis, employment, and tax issues. Gerson Martinez, the
FMLN economic advisor and returning Legislative Assembly
deputy, and Alexander Segovia, economic advisor to FMLN
presidential candidate Mauricio Funes, stressed that the FMLN
plan represented a conceptual change from the past, and
reflected general ideas that would be fully developed once
they are in government. On the other hand, Ambassador Rene
Leon, ARENA Platform Coordinator, and Rafael Lemus, the ARENA
platform Coordinator for Economic Issues, focused on
promoting specific proposals from the ARENA plan.


3. (U) Leon said that ARENA would promote employment in
specific high-value sectors, including textiles, tourism,
agriculture, call centers, housing, and logistics. The FMLN
plan would focus on small and medium enterprises, which
Segovia said would generate the most employment. Martinez
also promoted the FMLN &my first job8 program, where the
government would pay one month of the annual salary of an
employee in his first job.


4. (U) Both parties stated that they would not raise the

Value-Added Tax and both are considering introducing a
property tax. The FMLN,s fiscal/tax policy would focus on
reducing &elusion, evasion, and contraband,8 which Martinez
estimated would free at least $300 million per year. Lemus
responded that studies show that even developed countries
have a hard time reducing evasion below 25 percent, so the
FMLN,s plan was not feasible. Segovia also proposed a
&fiscal pact,8 where the FMLN would consult all sectors of
society about how to raise tax revenues, with a goal of
increasing the tax burden to 16-17 percent of GDP. Leon
noted that the Guatemalans had been debating a fiscal pact
(which Segovia helped develop) for nine years without
agreement. On the other hand, Leon said that ARENA,s fiscal
policy would rely not just on increasing tax collection and
improving expenditures, but also external financing,
donations, and agreements between government and the private
sector. Segovia responded that ARENA,s fiscal proposals
were too small and would not raise enough revenue to cover
the expenses outlined in their plan.

--------------
PDDH OPPOSES USE OF CHILDREN IN CAMPAIGN
--------------

5.(U) ARENA Presidential candidate Rodrigo Avila visited
Cinquera, Cabanas February 6, and, according to local media
reports, was received by students chanting FMLN anthems and
waving FMLN flags. The media also reported that some FMLN
sympathizers burned ARENA flags. In response to the event,
Ombudsman for Human Rights Oscar Luna publicly condemned the
use of children in political campaigns and urged the FMLN and
the Ministry of Education to take corrective measures. The
FMLN responded by saying the students merely reacted to
provocation by ARENA. The Minister of Education announced
February 9 that teachers involved in the incident will be
suspended for 60 days without pay.

--------------
WHO WILL THE MAYOR OF SAN MIGUEL ENDORSE?
--------------

6.(U) Since the PDC and PCN decided to withdraw their
presidential candidates (see below),both ARENA and the FMLN
ramped up efforts to secure the endorsements of influential
officials, particularly the popular mayor of San Miguel, Wil
Salgado. San Miguel holds approximately 330,000 voters,
enough to assure either party a solid victory. The
department of San Miguel traditionally favors the left, and
the January 18 Legislative Assembly elections followed this
trend. However, the municipality of San Miguel is led by the
popular PDC mayor, who is thought to have significant
influence over voters. (Note: Salgado has consistently drawn
votes as mayor, despite switching parties three times since
2000.) Salgado has yet to make an official endorsement, but
has in the past said that ARENA's plan would better support
the development of San Miguel.

--------------
PCN EXPELS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FROM PARTY
--------------

7.(C) In the wake of the February 2 withdrawal by PDC
candidate Carlos Rivas Zamora from the presidential race
(reftel),speculation spread through the media about the
future of PCN candidate Tomas Chevez' bid. Chevez was
adamant about remaining in the race, but on February 4,
following consultation with the TSE on mechanisms to end his
candidacy without Chevez' consent, the PCN expelled him from
the party, thereby terminating his campaign. The PCN
subsequently threw its support squarely behind Rodrigo Avila
and the ARENA campaign. The absence of smaller party
candidates removes the possibility of a runoff in the
presidential elections; the March 15 vote should be
definitive.

8.(U) Tomas Chevez, former PCN presidential candidate,
appealed the party's decision to terminate his candidacy
before the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Chevez said the
action was taken in violation of due process. He says the
decision should have been made by the PCN General Assembly.
Chevez claimed to have the support of 35 municipal directors,
and said that PCN Secretary General Ciro Cruz Zepeda should
be removed from the party.

9.(C) PCN Deputy Col. Jose Antonio Almendariz told PolCouns
February 12 he was concerned that the manner in which PCN
Secretary General Ciro Cruz Zepeda had orchestrated the
expulsion of former candidate Tomas Chevez would backfire.
While the party leadership was beholden to Cruz Zepeda, party
activists who had supported Chevez were furious and, despite
assertions to the contrary, were not certain to support Avila
in the March 15 vote. Almendariz suggested the best thing
Cruz Zepeda could do for Avila right now would be to throw
publicly his support behind the FMLN,s Mauricio Funes.
Almendariz, who had refused to sign the order expelling
Chevez from the PCN, said he and others were now working the
evangelical church circuit to explain why PCN voters should
support ARENA and to try and ensure those voters would not
support Funes. Almendariz said he feared Funes was likely to
win the March 15 election.

-------------- EQk{q9QKQE_VAS ZAMORA ON DISAPPEARING CANDIDATES
--------------

10.(S/NF) Former PDC candidate Carlos Rivas Zamora told
Polcouns February 11 he had been approached by someone he
believed to be a representative of the FMLN and offered one
million USD not to be used for his campaign, but for him in
exchange for agreeing to pull out of the race when
instructed. Rivas Zamora said he refused, but he believed
former PCN candidate Chevez had accepted USD 500,000 and was
now hoping for &forgiveness8 from the donors as he had been
expelled from the PCN and thus removed from the March 15
ballot earlier than the donors had desired. Rivas Zamora
said he hoped for Chevez, sake the donors were
understanding, as they struck him as mafia-esque. Rivas
Zamora was personally disappointed that his campaign had
ended when it did, but believed it was best for El Salvador
in order to prevent a Funes victory. He said he has been
informally offered ) though not as a quid pro quo -- several
positions in an Avila government: Consumer Advocate (Defensor
del Consumidor),Ambassador to Ecuador, and Solicitor General.


11. (C) Comment: Power struggles notwithstanding, the PDC and
PCN do not want to see an FMLN president, and their recent
maneuvers demonstrate that they will do whatever they deem
necessary to reach that end. Along with ARENA, the parties
have decided that the March 15 election is Rodrigo Avila's
best chance at winning, and all have now made a decisive
commitment to realizing that goal. ARENA has gained momentum
from its victory in the San Salvador mayor's race, which (1)
burst the FMLN's aura of invincibility and (2) awoke the
ARENA sleeping giant. The race for president is now in a
fierce and tightly-contested phase.

BLAU