HAS SALEH LOST THE SOUTH? BOLD TALK OF

S E C R E T SANAA 000306

SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR SMOFFATT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PNAT YM
SUBJECT: HAS SALEH LOST THE SOUTH? BOLD TALK OF
INDEPENDENCE IN ADEN

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S) SUMMARY. In meetings in Aden attended by PolOff,
independent figures and opposition leaders ) including
members of the regime of the former People's Democratic
Republic of South Yemen (PDRY) ) called openly for Southern
independence, declaring that "unity was over." Describing an
underground movement termed Harak al-Janub (the Southern
Movement),they detailed the movement's structure and
indicated that if peaceful means to gain independence were
frustrated, violence would follow. These statements mark a
new level of secessionist discussion, and begin to suggest
new uncertainties for Yemen's near-term political unity. END
SUMMARY.


2. (S) During a recent visit to Aden, PolOff was invited to
observe a meeting organized by Basha Bashraheel, editor of
al-Ayyam, an independent southern newspaper, with the goal of
uniting the two main factions of the Southern Movement.
Alternately calling it Harak al-Janub (the Southern Movement)
or Harak a-Silmi (the Peaceful Movement),the assembled group
described the movement's current structure and goals. A
common theme echoed throughout the meeting was that the era
of unity of North and South Yemen was over, and independence
was the only option for the South. (Comment: Post believes
it is important to note that the below comments were made
with USG consumption in mind. Participants in the meeting
made no bones about the fact that American support for
independence is an end-goal of the Southern Movement, which
certainly would explain why they invited an EmbOff to sit in.
End Comment. End Note.)

AN UNDERGROUND MOVEMENT
--------------


3. (S) The first, demonstrations-based phase of the movement
is over and the movement has gone into a second underground
phase, according to Bashraheel. Five leaders of the Southern
Movement confirmed this development during the February 15
meeting organized by the Bashraheel family to unite the
movement's two factions. (Note: The first faction consisted
of journalist Ahmed al-Qamaa, writer and activist Ali Haitham
al-Ghareeb, an unidentified writer, former PDRY military
commander Mohamed Saleh Tammah and former Yemeni Deputy Prime
Minister and Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) member Mohamed
Haidara Masdous. The second faction's membership remains
less clear, but was represented by Ali Munasser, the Aden
chair of the Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) who was jailed for
six months for involvement in last year's demonstrations.
The second faction seems to skew towards mainstream YSP
membership. End Note.)


4. (S) Bashraheel said that the movement was also continuing
to put up roadblocks, citing those in Dhale and Radfan in
January, which succeeded in securing the release of southern
detainees from ROYG custody. Although the movement's leaders
expressed reluctance to move to violent confrontation with
the ROYG, all expressed willingness to do so if peaceful
means were exhausted. They mentioned attacks on troops and
military installations as the likely first step.

STRUCTURE
--------------


5. (S) Ghareeb, the writer who has been in and out of jail
for involvement with the movement, told PolOff that the
movement went into a more discreet mode in late 2008 after
the ROYG proved that it would not tolerate the peaceful
demonstrations of 2007 and early 2008. He said the movement
was currently organizing governorate-level committees capable
of operating independently in their regions. The Southern
Movement's central structure is comprised of two committees
) an internal planning committee and an outward-facing
public relations committee. Ghareeb hoped they would be able
to announce progress on organization and planning within two
months. (Note: If on schedule, this announcement would come
at close to the same time as the scheduled April 27
parliamentary elections. End Note.)

MEMBERSHIP AND SUPPORT
--------------


6. (S) When asked directly if the military officers involved
in earlier demonstrations were part of the Southern Movement,
Tammah told PolOff, "Yes, absolutely. They are with us. And
not just the military ) the (former PDRY) bureaucrats who
lost their jobs, too." Tammah, an AmCit who recently
returned to Aden after 15 years of self-exile in New York
City, said the Southern Movement in Yemen was well-connected
to South Yemeni expatriates around the world, specifically

citing the U.S. and the U.K. (Note: A protest in support of
the South Yemen cause took place in front of the State
Department in 2008. End Note.) Qamaa, the journalist,
asserted that "70 percent" of the South supports independence.

LEADERSHIP
--------------


7. (S) The question of leadership remained unresolved at the
end of the meeting. Masdous, who in addition to being a
former ROYG Deputy Prime Minister from 1990-1993 was also a
diplomat and military commander in the PDRY, was the most
senior figure present. His writings are widely read by
Southern secessionists. His health, however, was clearly
failing and he recently underwent major heart surgery in
Cairo. The name of Hassan Ba'um, currently on the lam and
likely in Shuaib (Dhale' governorate),was mentioned several
times as an ideological ally, although not as the movement's
official leader. (Note: Ba'um, like the Bashraheels, is
working to unite the Southern Movement's factions. Ba'um has
called for unification under the banner "National Conference
for the Sons of the South." It does not appear that Ba'um
and the Bashraheels are at odds with one another, but rather
that each is working towards a common goal. End Note.) No
mention was made of Ali Nasser Mohamed, a former PDRY
President, or Haider Abu Bakr Al-Attas, a former Prime
Minister of PDRY, both exiles who are sometimes cited as
potential southern leaders.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (S) The movement appears to have moved into a new phase
of development, with an increasingly complex internal
structure and an ideology that has moved beyond the
possibility of reconciliation with the ROYG. Two key
variables that will determine the future strength and
ultimate success of the Southern Movement are popular support
and leadership. Regardless, if such frank discussion of the
need for Southern independence comes to President Saleh's
attention, it is sure to stoke his deeply held fears of a
break-down in the fragile unity he forged after the 1994
civil war. END COMMENT.
SECHE