Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09SANAA2128
2009-11-28 14:51:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sanaa
Cable title:  

SOUTH'S INDEPENDENCE DAY COULD TURN VIOLENT

Tags:  PGOV PNAT PTER PINR YM 
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VZCZCXRO2023
RR RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDIR
DE RUEHYN #2128 3321451
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 281451Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3283
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS 0371
RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH 0443
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 002128 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR JYAPHE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PNAT PTER PINR YM
SUBJECT: SOUTH'S INDEPENDENCE DAY COULD TURN VIOLENT

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 002128

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR JYAPHE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PNAT PTER PINR YM
SUBJECT: SOUTH'S INDEPENDENCE DAY COULD TURN VIOLENT

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Against a backdrop of resurgent separatist
sentiments in the south, large and potentially violent
protests are expected on November 30, the day marking the
south's independence from Britain. Signs of greater
organization among the Southern Mobility Movement (SMM) and
recent anti-ROYG actions by members of the movement could
spell trouble for demonstrators. SMM leaders could be taking
advantage of the ROYG's preoccupation with the Sa'ada war in
the north to regroup and unify their efforts for southern
independence. END SUMMARY.

SOUTHERN MOVEMENT GROWS BOLDER, CLASHES WITH ROYG
-------------- --------------


2. (C) The Southern Mobility Movement (SMM),as the
separatist factions in the south have dubbed themselves, is
showing signs of greater organization and growing frustration
with the north, a development which could result in a clash
with ROYG forces on November 30. (NOTE: On November 30, 1967
the British-administered and funded Federation of South
Arabia became independent, marking the end of British rule.
END NOTE.) In statements published in Aden Press, a
pro-secessionist Arabic language daily on November 21, SMM
leader Sheikh Hasan Muhammad Banan al-Diyuli called for the
recognition of former PDRY president Ali Salim al-Baidh and
unity among the southern governorates to achieve separation
from the north. SMM leaders gathered in Shabwah at Diyuli's
request to discuss greater unity among the factions and
agreed on the creation of the "Revolutionary Command Council"
to unite all of Shabwah's leadership against the north.
Furthermore, Diyuli noted plans for demonstrations on
November 25 and warned "the axis commander" and the security
chief that they "must understand they would not be safe if
any Shabwah citizen is killed or wounded during the
festival." On November 25 at least 5 protestors and 2
policemen were killed as the demonstrations in Ataq, in the
southern province of Shabwah, turned violent. Press reports
indicate that demonstrators were carrying the flag of the
People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY),the name of the
former socialist southern nation which was an independent
country until unification in 1990. Late the following day,
armed Southern movement activists blocked the main highway
from Sana'a to Aden, cutting off the southern port city (and
Eid al-Adha travelers) from the capital. According to a
Reuters report from Aden, mediation by tribal leaders
convinced the armed activists to end their blockade of the
highway on November 27.


3. (C) Considering the growing tension between the ROYG and
the south and the cycle of violence that occurs with each
imprisonment of previous protestors, potential for violent
clashes on November 30 remains high. Ahmed al-Sharqi, cousin
and confidante of SMM spokesman Dr. Abdul Hameed al-Sharqi,
told EmbOff on November 24 that the SMM is currently drafting
a platform to express its desired end-state and guiding
principles for the movement. One of the principles outlines
the SMM's belief in peaceful protest, but authorizes
protestors to carry weapons and engage in "self-defense" if
threatened. In addition, the platform calls for complete
secession from the north and the re-establishment of Aden as
the capital of an independent southern Yemen. The remaining
pillars of the five-point platform describe the nature of the
desired future state, disavowing any affiliation with Islah
and other "fundamentalist" Islamic influences, the Yemeni
Socialist Party (YSP) and communist ideology, and Al-Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and any other terrorist
organization.

COMMENT
--------------


4. (C) The potential for violence on November 30 cannot be
dismissed. A recent upsurge in protest activity, clashes
with ROYG forces, and a stated willingness to "defend
themselves" if threatened all point to a bolder approach by
the southern movement. The recent calls for unity among the
factions of the southern movement and the creation of a
platform also indicate a higher level of coordination and
organization than seen previously and may demonstrate the
SMM's desire to take advantage of the ROYG's preoccupation
with the Houthi rebellion in the north, a development which
has long been expected but has yet to materialize until now.
END COMMENT.
BRYAN