PEAK REFUGEE SEASON: INCREASING NUMBERS OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANAA 001633

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP AND PRM
AMMAN FOR REFCOORD RUSTY INGRAHAM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2019
TAGS: PREF PGOV PHUM PREL DJ ELAB ER ET SMIG UNHCR
YM
SUBJECT: PEAK REFUGEE SEASON: INCREASING NUMBERS OF
ETHIOPIANS MAY REDUCE YEMEN,S ABILITY TO WELCOME

REF: SANAA 1287

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) This cable was drafted in coordination with Embassy
Addis Ababa.

Summary
--------------


2. (C) SUMMARY: Press reporting on the &12,0008 refugees
crammed into Bossaso, Somalia waiting to transit to Yemen in
September has been largely exaggerated. Many of these
refugees have already arrived, with perhaps only a fourth of
this number still awaiting transport. The more important
trend is the growing number of Ethiopian arrivals on Yemeni
shores and the pending influx in September-October. The
increased volume of migrants will undoubtedly strain an
already stressed ROYG as ell as international organizations,
NGOs, and emassies.

Background
--------------


3. (SBU) The RYG is currently faig a major insurgency in
the orth, continuing protests in the South, and increaing
threats from al-Qa,ida in the Arabian Peninsla (AQAP). Due
to its geographical location, Yeen has long been a transit
point for migrants an refugees alike. Despite its relative
poverty, Yeen has welcomed Somali migrants with open arms.
ow the country faces an unprecedented set of internal
problems in conjunction with the largest influx of migrants
and refugees in its modern history.

Peak Migration Season
--------------


4. (C) After the stormy seas calm at the end of August,
September ) October becomes the peak season for migrants
seeking to cross the Gulf of Aden onto Yemeni shores. This
year,s coincidence of this maritime change and the lax
security during Ramada contribute heavily to the increase in
arrivals,according to UNHCR country director Claire
Bourgois. (Note: With most of the country fasting during
Ramadan, the security services are no exception. Limited
vigilance during the day and outright negligence during iftar
are readily apparent. End Note.) Recent international press
reports have indicated a build-up of 12,000 potential
refugees waiting in Bossaso, Somalia. As of June there were
only 3,000 potential refugees waiting, with 2,000 previously
departed, according to Bourgeois. The 12,000 number reported
in the press is actually closer to the number of Somali
arrivals this year (15,052) than the number of Somalis
waiting in Bossaso.

Explaining a Changing Demographic
--------------


5. (SBU) The majority of refugees in Yemen have historically
been Somalis (REFTEL). This is due mostly to the conflict
there, Yemen,s geographic proximity, and the Yemeni practice
of granting Somalis prima facie refugee status. While many
use Yemen as a jumping off point to Saudi Arabia or Europe,
most settle into life in Yemen. Until this year, the majority
of arrivals were Somalis who fit this basic profile. In the
last seven months, however, approximately 17,000 out of
33,000 arrivals have been Ethiopians. This represents more
than the total number of Ethiopian arrivals to Yemen during
all of 2008.


6. (SBU) The changing demographic of arrivals has also
corresponded to a change in transit points. Previously, most
of the arrivals coming from Somalia crossed the Gulf of Aden.
According to UNHCR data, however, the majority of recent
arrivals departed from Obock, Djibouti, crossed the Red Sea,
and arrived in the Hudaydah governorate. This voyage is
several hundred kilometers shorter and somewhat safer than
its Somali counterpart.

SANAA 00001633 002 OF 003




7. (C) This dramatic shift in arrivals is not easily
explained. Ethiopians do not have prima facie status, live in
a more politically and economically secure country, and are
among the most vulnerable of migrants to Yemen (REFTEL).
Nonetheless, their numbers have grown to a point that they
have surpassed Somalis as the largest group of arrivals,
despite the fact that very few of them will gain legal
status. According to UNHCR representative Samer Haddadin,
only 688 of the 17,000 arrivals this year even applied for
asylum. Still, NGOs continue to process almost all arrivals
and grant them a ten-day pass that allows them to register
with UNHCR.


8. (C) Unlike their Somali counterparts, Ethiopian migrants
are less likely to remain in Yemen. Their goal is to work in
the richer Gulf countries or transit to Europe. In fact, the
ROYG does not allow Ethiopians to reside in the refugee
camps, and most settle in Sana,a. Those who are unable to
transit out of Yemen remain to work. Yet jobs are hard to
come by for men, and hundreds are imprisoned each month. Most
are then deported back to Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Consul in
Yemen claimed in an August 9 meeting that most can pay their
own way home and are not penalized upon their return. He
contrasted his government,s policies with Eritrea,s, which
he claimed imprisons those returning from Yemen.

Migrants Not Refugees?
--------------


9. (C) In further contrast to the Somalis breaching Yemen,s
shores, most Ethiopians arriving to Yemen are considered
economic migrants and are treated as such until they obtain
refugee status from UNHCR. Bourgeois, however, intimated in
an August 3 meeting that the conflicts in Tigre and Ogaden
regions play a larger role than the Ethiopians or Yemenis are
willing to admit. Stefano Tamagnini, the Chief of Mission for
the International Organization for Migration (IOM),noted in
a September 1 presentation that &many Oromos and Amhara are
fleeing political persecution.8 Nonetheless, according to
the Ethiopian Embassy in Sana,a, only 15-20 out of 118
Ethiopians arrested in Sana,a for being in illegal
immigration status during the first week in August were not
from the regions in question. While the Ethiopian consul
admitted that some legitimate refugees come to Yemen to
escape the problems in those regions (perhaps 200 or so this
year),he placed the numbers at under two percent of the
total Ethiopian arrivals. UNHCR contends that the Ethiopians
are overly willing to deport their own citizens from Yemen in
order to maintain a good relationship with the ROYG.
(Comment: The paltry numbers of Ethiopians seeking political
asylum, however, speak for themselves. End Comment.)

Why Yemen?
--------------


10. (C) Yemen, the poorest country in the Middle East,
provides economic opportunities for Ethiopians coming from
the poorer sections of that country. According to the
Ethiopian consul, some Ethiopians can make two or three times
as much as they would at home and enjoy a lower cost of
living. In Sana,a, for example, Ethiopian women readily find
jobs in house-keeping that Yemenis will often not take.
Drought, chronic food insecurity, limited access for NGOs
providing relief, and conflict are other major contributors
to emigration from Ethiopia. In Yemen, NGOs are merely
reacting to the increasing numbers and have not been able to
compose a full contingency plan for the September influx,
according to Bourgeois. The number of arrivals in Yemen this
year may reach 70,000 ) up from 50,000 last year, according
to UNHCR statistics.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (SBU) If the trend continues that a larger percentage of
these arrivals will include Ethiopian economic migrants,
relations between the ROYG and Ethiopia may become strained.

SANAA 00001633 003 OF 003


Moreover, the increased volume will most certainly test the
capacity of local NGOs to process the new arrivals. Without a
corresponding increase in resources and planning, which to
date do not exist, the organizations charged with processing
and providing services to refugees will undoubtedly come
under severe stress. With a myriad of other destabilizing
factors plaguing Yemen, it remains to be seen what larger
effect this new influx will have on the greater stability of
the country. End Comment.
SECHE