POTHOLES ON THE ROAD TO 2011 PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 001016

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/AAP:MBLONG
BAGHDAD FOR LGURIAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV YM
SUBJECT: POTHOLES ON THE ROAD TO 2011 PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS

REF: A. SANAA 996

B. SANAA 942

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
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1. (C) Twenty-three months prior to parliamentary elections
scheduled for April 2011, the deadline for the parties to
reach mutually acceptable electoral reform is much closer
than it appears. Neither side appears to be moving in the
direction of resolving the outstanding disagreements on the
electoral process. In spite of efforts by the electoral
commission to address technical issues during the impasse,
party foot-dragging will only make it harder bring about
needed reform and hold elections as scheduled. End Summary

What must be done to hold elections in April 2011
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2. (C) Unrest in Yemen has recently grabbed headlines
(reftels),but one month after the postponement of
parliamentary elections and 23 months before those elections
are now due to be held, the countdown clock is ticking and
very little is being done. Country Director Peter Williams
of the International Federation of Electoral Systems (IFES)
told POL/E Chief on May 28 that the various parties involved
in the debate over reforming Yemen's electoral system
realistically have only 5 months to resolve their differences
and author a mutually acceptable program for reform.


3. (C) Williams clarified why the deadline was so short.
The opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP),whose threat to
boycott the parliamentary elections ultimately brought about
their delay, has made clear in its public statements and
private discussions with POL/E Chief that changing Yemen's
current "first past the post" system to some form of a
proportional list system is a mandatory prerequisite for JMP
participation.


4. (C) This demand moves the deadline for agreement forward
in two ways. According to Williams, organizations that
handle technical aspects of elections processes agree that
the implementation, in a manner consistent with international
standards, of a new electoral system requires at least 12
months. Additionally, as Yemen's current electoral system is
spelled out in the country's constitution, changing it will
require amending the constitution and therefore a national
referendum. Williams estimates that from the time such a
referendum is proposed in Yemen's Parliament its
implementation will require at least six months. Therefore,
the program must be settled at least 18 months before the
scheduled April 2011 elections, which sets the deadline in
October 2009.

What the Parties are Doing
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5. (C) Thus far there has been no progress towards coming to
a mutually acceptable plan that will allow elections to take
place. Further, neither the ruling General People's Congress
(GPC) nor the JMP are showing any urgency to begin a dialogue
on the topic. On May 17, Sultan Barkani, the head of the GPC
Parliamentary Bloc, told POL/E Chief that no dialogue was
taking place. The opposition, said Barkani, "are waiting for
some sort of invitation to start." He added that no such
invitation was forthcoming. Assistant Secretary General
Mohamed al-Sadi of the opposition Islah party told POL/E
Chief on May 19 that it is not the lack of an invitation that
is delaying the dialogue, but rather Yemen's unstable
political situation. "The agreement to delay the elections
says that there must be a 'suitable political environment'
for the debates. It is President Saleh's job to bring about
that environment." When asked would constitute a suitable
environment, Sadi indicated that at least the political
upheaval in Yemen's south would have to be calmed.


6. (C) Secretary General Yassin Saeed Noman of the
opposition Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) sees an even longer
road to agreement. "Dialogue with the GPC has stopped," he
told POL/E Chief on May 26. "It has stopped because they
have forgotten all the other issues and are only willing to
discuss the elections. If the greater issues
(decentralization of power, non-electoral political reform)
are not addressed, we are afraid there will be no Yemen to
hold elections. The real reform must start before there can
be electoral reform."

The Prospects for Progress
--------------


7. (C) Resident Director Heather Therrien of the National
Democratic Institute (NDI) complained to POL/E Chief on May
26 that JMP party members feel burned by their past dealing
with the GPC and therefore are unwilling to take accept
piecemeal reforms that could start the ball rolling. "They
want it all at once," she said, "and I don't blame them. If
history is any guide, the GPC will get them to accept
reforming the Supreme Council for Elections and Referenda
(SCER) and ignore all the other issues." GPC Parliamentarian
Nabil Basha was even more pessimistic. "Before the elections
were delayed," he told POL/E Chief on May 25, "I told people
that if they were (delayed),there might never be another
election in Yemen. Now I am afraid I was right."
Presidential advisor Abdulkarim al-Eryani announced on May 30
that the dialogue mentioned in the agreement to delay
elections will begin soon. At the same time, opposition
figures called for a boycott of any dialogue with the ruling
party until those arrested during demonstrations in Yemen's
south are freed.

SCER Soldiers on in Silence
--------------


8. (C) While the parties are failing to resolve the
political issues related to the election process, the SCER is
quietly continuing to deal with technical issues. With the
SCER's cooperation, IFES has brought in a forensic accountant
and computer expert to audit the voter registration lists.
While this process is not secret (it is included in IFES'
plan of action),it is being undertaken very quietly.
Williams entreated POL/E Chief not to mention it,
particularly to contacts in Yemen's political parties, for
fear that it would become a political issue and therefore be
stalled as well.

Comment
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9. (C) Neither the GPC nor the JMP appear to have learned
anything from the failure of the April 2009 elections.
Neither has budged from their entrenched position and neither
appears willing to make the first move. Valuable time is
being wasted and that will only make achieving reform and
holding the elections as scheduled more difficult. End
Comment.
SECHE