Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09RPODUBAI551
2009-12-29 13:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Iran RPO Dubai
Cable title:  

IRAN'S ASHURA AFTERSHOCKS CONTINUE

Tags:  PGOV IR PREL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7115
OO RUEHBC RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0551/01 3631317
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 291317Z DEC 09
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0018
INFO IRAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI IMMEDIATE
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 RPO DUBAI 000551 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2034/12/29
TAGS: PGOV IR PREL
SUBJECT: IRAN'S ASHURA AFTERSHOCKS CONTINUE

REF: DUBAI RPO 547; DUBAI RPO 549

CLASSIFIED BY: Charles Pennypacker, Consular Officer, DOS, IRPO;
REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 RPO DUBAI 000551

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2034/12/29
TAGS: PGOV IR PREL
SUBJECT: IRAN'S ASHURA AFTERSHOCKS CONTINUE

REF: DUBAI RPO 547; DUBAI RPO 549

CLASSIFIED BY: Charles Pennypacker, Consular Officer, DOS, IRPO;
REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Two days after the violent December 27 Ashura
demonstrations in Tehran and other cities, the government continues
to arrest and detain more, largely 'second-tier' reformists and
their friends and family (to include Shirin Ebadi's sister),while
regime stalwarts have begun condemning Ashura day 'seditionists and
rioters.' Iran's 'Supreme Council for Islamic Proselytizing' has
announced a December 30 demonstration 'in Tehran and throughout the
country' to protest the sanctity-smashing' actions of the Ashura
'seditionists.' There are isolated and unsubstantiated reports of
increased student activity (both pro- and anti-regime) in some of
Tehran's universities. Two days after the worst violence since the
fraudulent June elections, the regime seems to have reverted to its
Kabuki-esque playbook, rounding up the usual reformist suspects
while also issuing perfervid yet essentially perfunctory
denunciations against its ever-increasing 'enemies.' For the
moment at least the regime seems content to do what it does best in
order to deal with the Ashura-day events. END SUMMARY.



'ROUND UP THE USUAL SUSPECTS'

-------------- -




2. (U) Two days after the violent December 27 Ashura demonstrations
in Tehran and other cities, more news of Ashura-day and post-Ashura
violence, arrests and detentions continues to emerge. The most
detailed (if not necessarily credible) news coming mainly from
oppositionist websites such as 'Rah-e Sabz, affiliated with
dissident cleric Mohsen Kadivar. Incidents cited in foreign and
oppositionist press include the following:



- the car containing Mehdi Karrubi and family members was attacked
and extensively damaged while leaving Ashura day ceremonies at
Ghaffari Mosque in Tehran (December 27);



- increased security presence was noted in central Tehran, with
police closing selected metro stations, and with reports of
scattered clashes, to include around 'Haft Tir' Square (afternoon,
December 28);



- some detainees were taken to the infamous Meqdad detention center
on Azadi Street, where they were beaten and threatened (December

27-28);



- mid-day December 28 security officials stormed the office of
reformist weekly 'Irandokht,' whose editor is reformist journalist
Mahmoud Quchani (the son-in-law of Emadaldin Baghi) and after a
thorough search, confiscated all the computers (December 28);



- Prominent student activist Heshmat Tabarzadi (who had already
done a seven year prison term) was arrested by intelligence
officials at his home (December 28);



- Abolfazl Ghadyani, prominent member of the reformist 'Mujahedin
of the Islamic Revolution' party (NOTE: 'MIRO'- not to be confused
with the 'MEK') party, was arrested (December 28);



- Security went to the home of MIRO spokesman Mohsen Armin to
arrest him, but he wasn't at home (December 28);

DUBAI 00000551 002 OF 004


- MIRO Central Council member Behzad Nabavi (NOTE: a particular
bC*te noire for Iran's hardline conservatives),already imprisoned
but on the fourth day of temporary release for medical treatment,
was returned to Evin Prison before the treatment started (December
28);



- Mohammad Taheri, husband of Khomeini's grand-child and son of
prominent dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Jalaladdin
Taheri, was arrested (December 28) ;



- Reformist journalist Mohammad Javad Saberi was taken away by
'plainclothes' (December 27);



- Dr. Nushin Ebadi, sister of Nobel Prize winner Shirin Ebadi, was
taken away for 'questioning' by Intelligence officials the night of
December 28 and has not been heard from since (December 28);



- Mashallah Shams-ol-Vaezin, the 'father of reformist journalism'
in Iran, was arrested (December 29);



- Women's Rights activist Mansureh Shojai and journalist/activist
Morteza Kazemian were arrested (December 28).




3. (U) There are isolated and unsubstantiated reports of increased
student activity (both pro- and anti-regime) in some of Tehran's
universities. On December 29 there were reports of a clash
between pro-government and oppositionist students at Tehran's 'Elm
o Sanat' ('Science and Industry') University, which had to be
broken up by security forces, while according to pro-government
websites, pro-government university student groups from Tehran's
universities have gathered in front of the Judiciary offices to
show support for Supreme Leader Khamenei.



CONDEMNATIONS

--------------




4. (U) As intelligence and security forces continue their round-up
of largely second-tier reformists, pro-regime individuals and
organizations have begun to issue public statements, condemning
'the small number of seditionists working towards the regime's
overthrow' who sought to 'shatter the sanctity of Ashura,' and
calling for 'decisive treatment and maximum punishment' for them.
Those issuing pro-government statements included:



- Tehran's 'Rasullollah' IRGC Unit

- The Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics

- Basij Organization Commander General Mohammad Reza Naqdi

- IGC Deputy Commander BG Masoud Jazayeri

- The Guardian Council

- Qom Seminary Teachers Association (the main clerical organization
in Iran)

- Society of Combatant Clerics (aka 'Ruhaniat,' the political
faction representing conservative clerics)

- The Bazaari-affilated ' Islamic Coalition Party' (aka
'Motalafeh')

DUBAI 00000551 003 OF 004


- The Majlis 'Principlists' faction (NOTE: Majlis members en masse
also staged a street march on December 29 in support of the regime)

- Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani

- Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezai

- The Supreme Cultural Council

- Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi

- Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi




5. (U) On December 29 Iran's 'Coordinating Council for Islamic
Propaganda' announced that there would be would be a 'large
gathering' the afternoon of December 30 at Enqelab Square in
central Tehran and in other locations 'throughout the country' to
protest the 'sanctity-smashing' actions of the Ashura
'seditionists.' Separately, 'Javan' newspaper, an IRGC organ, has
called for government supporters to stage a December sit-in across
from Mir Hossein Mousavi's office in support of the arrest of
Mousavi and Karrubi, after the 1500 hours pro-government march
ends. According to the paper the sit-in will continue 'until
decisive action by the Judiciary re Mousavi, Karrubi, and the other
seditionists.'



DEAD/WOUNDED

--------------




6. (U) On December 28 the Health Ministry's Public Relations said
that in Tehran 60 people had been taken to government hospitals as
a result of Ashura-day injuries, with most of them treated on an
outpatient basis then subsequently released (reftel - many wounded
weren't taken to hospitals for fear of being detained/questioned by
security). That same day the LEF announced the names of the seven
men and one woman killed on Ashura, along with their cause of death
(see Appendix - note that even in the case of fatalities whose
identity were unknown their ages were listed). On December 28
Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafaari Dolatabadi told press
that among the Ashura day fatalities no one died from bullet wounds
except one case (aka Mousavi's nephew),which is under
investigation. The other deaths were either due to some type of
blow, or due to shots from hunting rifles, which Iranian security
and LEF did not have.




7. (C) COMMENT: Two days after the worst violence since the
fraudulent June elections the regime seems to have reverted to its
Kabuki-esque playbook, rounding up the usual reformist suspects
while also issuing perfervid yet essentially perfunctory
denunciations. For the moment at least the regime seems content to
do what it does best in order to deal with the Ashura-day events.
END COMMENT.



APPENDIX:

--------------



NAMES OF DEAD AND CAUSES OF DEATH, PER LEF DEC 28 ANNOUNCEMENT




1. Mehdi FARHADI RAD, 34 years old; died from 25 buckshot in face


2. Mohammad Ali RASEKHI NIA; 40 years old; died from buckshot from
hunting rifle


3. Amir ARSHADI, 30 years old; unknown cause of death


4. Shahram FARJI, 30 years old, unknown cause of death

DUBAI 00000551 004 OF 004



5. Sayyed Ali MOUSAVI HABIBI, 42 years old; died from gunshot


6. Jahanbakht PAZOOKI, 50 years old; unknown cause of death


7. Unknown male, 31 years old [sic]; died from knife wounds


8. Unknown female, 43 years old [sic]; cause of death probable
crash or accident
EYRE