Iran: Initial Reports Indicate Violent Ashura Clashes

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000547

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2034/12/28
TAGS: PGOV IR PREL
SUBJECT: Iran: Initial Reports Indicate Violent Ashura Clashes

CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, DOS, IRPO; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (U) SUMMARY: As of December 27, 1800 hours Tehran time, initial
indications from Iran indicate that antigovernment demonstrations
on the Shiite holiday of Tasua (Saturday, December 26) were
minimal, although crowd violence initiated by pro-government/Basij
elements forced former President Khatami to prematurely leave a
Northern Tehran public speaking engagement. However, on the
following day Ashura (Sunday, December 27) Tehran saw its most
violent clashes since the start of the post-election protests. Most
protests were in central Tehran. Reformist/Oppositionist websites
cited three to four casualties, to include Mir Hossein Mousavi's
nephew. It is quite possible that more clashes will ensue the night
of the 27th, as protesters have vowed to remain/congregate in
select Tehran squares and parks (NOTE: Upcoming septel with a more
extensive/updated cable on the Ashura protests). END SUMMARY.



TASUA - DEC 26

--------------




2. (U) Traditionally in post-revolutionary Iran people stay
inside/at home for Tasua (i.e. 9th of Moharram) but go outside for
Ashura (10th of Moharram). As such, street turnout in most of Iran
on December 26 was minimal, with exceptions mostly in the
Najafabad/Esfahan area, due to activities related to the death of
Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, who was from Najafabad. Grand Ayatollah
Taheri, now the senior-most dissident 'oppositionist' cleric, is
also located in Esfahan, and regime security measures around his
home in Esfahan have also been pronounced.



KHATAMI ROUTED

--------------




3. (U) In Tehran, the main incident occurred in northern Tehran, in
the Jamaran Mosque, where former President Khatami was scheduled to
give a talk in the Jamaran Mosque (where the late Grand Ayatollah
Khomeini used to speak). Pro-government/Basij elements took their
places in the mosque before Khatami started his speech a little
before 1800 hours. Khomieni's grandson Yasser gave the opening
prayer, and then Khatami started speaking, at which point
pro-government elements started chanting anti-Khatami slogans.
Pro-Khatami elements w/in the mosque responded, and tensions
increased to the point where 15 minutes into the speech, Khatami's
bodyguards extracted him. At which point the few thousand of
pro-Khatami supporters in the immediate surroundings (who had come
but hadn't found space inside the mosque, started chanting
oppositionist slogans. After about two hours, i.e.2000 hours local
time, Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) forces moved in and dispersed
the crowd w/tear gas and batons. No casualties reported.



ASHURA - DEC 27

--------------




4. (C) In Tehran, people were out in force, mostly in central
Tehran along the north-south streets on which the major
universities are located. Reported clusters of protesters ranged in
the several hundred to several thousand range, according to press
(NOTE: needless to say, official Iranian media didn't cover these
demonstrations w/any accuracy, with most of the more reliable
reporting coming from reformist and/or oppositionist websites, and
the BBC Persian service). There were many reports of violent
clashes between protesters and security forces, and one IRPO
contact in touch with people in Central Tehran called today 'the
most violent day' since the post-election protests began.

DUBAI 00000547 002 OF 002



5. (U) Police used tear gas and batons to break up crowds, and in
at least one case at "College Bridge" near Amir Kabir University,
fired directly into the crowd, with three to four reported deaths
(Note: A relative of Mir Hossein Mousavi was reportedly also shot
near Enqelab Square in Central Tehran - see below). According to
some reports in at least some cases, most notably Vali Asr Square,
protesters were able to drive out security forces from the area.




6. (C) Traditionally during Ashura people stay out at night,
lighting candles and marching, and for the night of December 27
protestors have announced they will stay/assemble in Central Tehran
squares during evening, 'continuing their struggle.' They have
announced congregations at Mohseni, Vanak, Ferdowsi, Imam Hossein,
Tajrish, and Arya Shahr Squares, and also Mellat and Laleh Parks.
One knowledge IRPO contact predicted another round of violent
clashes tonight, as security forces move against protesters in many
of these key squares.



OTHER CITIES

--------------




7. (U) According to oppositionist websites, following appearance of
'special units' in Esfahan and Najafabad, tens of thousands of
mourners of these two cities have started engaged in widespread
clashes with military forces. At Enqelab square and Hosseinabad in
Esfahan and also Sepah street widespread clashes have been
reported. Jaras reporter in Najafabad also reported 'very severe'
clashes in Najafabad.



MOUSAVI RELATIVE KILLED

--------------




8. (U) According to a reformist website, 35 year old Seyyed Ali
Habibi Mousavi Khameneh, a nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi and father
of two children, was shot in the chest during protests around noon
in protests near Enqelab Square. He was taken to Ebn Sina hospital,
where he died. Reportedly, Mir Hossein Mousavi and other prominent
personalities have gone to the hospital. (Note: there are no
reports of any of the Green Path Opposition leaders - i.e. Mousavi,
Karrubi, Khatami - playing any visible role today.)
EYRE