IRAN OPPOSITION PLANS TASUA AND ASHURA PROTESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000545

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/23
TAGS: PGOV IR
SUBJECT: IRAN OPPOSITION PLANS TASUA AND ASHURA PROTESTS

CLASSIFIED BY: Charles Pennypacker, Consular Officer, DOS, IRPO;
REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Iran's 'Green Path' opposition expects the
religious holidays Tasua and Ashura on December 26th and 27th to be
the movement's next significant protests. These holidays
commemorate the martyrdom of Hossein, the Prophet Mohammad's
grandson, and typically create an emotionally charged atmosphere in
Iran. The 'Green Path' opposition is hoping to use that
atmosphere, as well as ceremonies associated with Grand Ayatollah
Montazeri's death and the ripped Khomeini picture affair, to
continue pushing for change. IRIG security forces will likely be
on the streets in an attempt to ensure calm, but the same harsh
warnings from senior security officials directed at oppositionists
that preceded earlier planned opposition rallies have so far been
absent, perhaps due to the holidays' religious nature. As the
recent planned protests on Student Day appealed primarily to
students, Tasua and Ashura will be the first opportunity since the
November 4 anniversary of US Embassy takeover in Iran to gauge the
movement's broader appeal. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) The Shia religious holidays Tasua and Ashura commemorate the
martyrdom of Imam Hossein and occur this year on December 26th and
27th. Imam Hossein was the Prophet Mohammad's grandson, and
according to Shias, the third Imam. He died during the Battle of
Karbala when he and a small group of his followers were killed by
forces loyal to the Sunni Caliphate Yazid. Tasua and Ashura are
marked with emotionally charged public processions wherein mourners
chant and beat their heads and chests to emulate Hossein's
suffering and, separately, re-enact his martyrdom in 'passion
plays.' The holiday is one of the most widely observed religious
holidays in Iran and government officials, including Ayatollah
Khamenei, typically attend mourning rituals.


3. (U) Consistent with its approach to Qods Day (September 18),the
anniversary of the US Embassy in Tehran (November 4),Student Day
(December 7),and Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's funeral (December
21),the 'Green Movement' opposition is encouraging its supporters
to use the holiday as a forum for anti-regime protests. On
December 14 the opposition website Mowjcamp released a statement
outlining several activities during the Islamic month of Moharram,
culminating with Tasua and Ashura (the 9th and 10th days of
Moharram). The activities include lighting candles to honor the
'martyrs' of the movement and meetings with the families of those
killed or imprisoned; the statement also lists suggested slogans to
chant during the protests.


4. (C) The tension in Iran and animosity between the 'Green Path'
opposition leaders and the IRIG seem to have increased since
Student Day, perhaps pushing more people to join the protests. Just
after Student Day, IRIB began broadcasting footage purportedly of
Student Day protesters tearing and burning a photo of Ayatollah
Khomeini. The footage sparked broad criticism of the 'Green Path'
opposition leaders, which was followed by declarations of
allegiance to Khomeini from all corners of the Islamic Republic.
Mousavi and Karrubi denounced such conduct but alleged that the
footage was a government attempt to smear the opposition. On
December 16 Judiciary Chief Larijani warned the 'leaders of
sedition' against further activity, alleging that the Judiciary has
enough information to arrest them, prompting a fiery response from
Mehdi Karrubi. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's death gives the
opposition a new rallying call just ahead of the protests,
particularly as the traditional 7th day mourning ritual for
Montazeri falls during Tasua and Ashura. However, on December 22
Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's son Ahmad announced that the
traditional third and seventh day mourning ceremonies for his
father were cancelled. He cited 'security reasons,' following the
December 22 attack of plainclothes officials on the Grand Ayatollah
Montazeri's office.


5. (C) After generally avoiding direct conflict with protesters on
Qods Day, the security forces confronted protesters much more
aggressively on the anniversary of the US embassy takeover and
confined Student Day protests to university campuses. The
religious nature of Tasua and Ashura, however, may make the IRIG
more hesitant to violently confront protesters. As an IRPO contact
pointed out, "they [the IRIG] can't stop people from chanting 'Ya
Hossein,' wearing green, or being on the streets," as these are all
commonplace for Tasua and Ashura. Although there has not to date
been the same warnings from senior security officials that preceded
Qods day, for example, the Law Enforcement Forces have announced
that security forces will be on hand, and have issued general
guidelines as to the appropriate behavior expected from
participants (for example, participants have been asked not to stab
themselves in the head with knives, a traditional activity

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associated with these dates but frowned upon by Supreme Leader
Khamenei, who thinks that it 'gives the wrong impression').


6. (C) COMMENT: Politicized Tasua and Ashura commerations played an
important role in the build-up to the Islamic Revolution, and the
'Green Path' opposition is hoping that lightning can strike twice
in this regard. It has demonstrated its ability during the past
few months to bring at least tens of thousands of Iranians into the
streets to protest against the government and probably will do so
again. One IRPO contact who travels between Iran and Dubai
anticipated, even before Montazeri's death, that Tasua and Ashura
would be "very big" and that turnout will eclipse Qods Day
participation. A prominent US-based oppositionist said the 'Green
Path' opposition is hoping to draw 'millions into the streets,
turning the holiday into a referendum on Khamenei's leadership.'
However, even if the Green Path can turn out a good crowd, it has
not demonstrated the ability to turn scattered demonstrations of
popular support into sustained leverage against the regime.
Indeed, Supreme Leadership Khamenei and other senior IRIG leaders
have shown ever less willingness to compromise and, at this stage,
it is not clear how regime opponents intend to use sporadic rallies
and demonstrations of popular support to realize their calls for
change. END COMMENT.
EYRE