IRAN: RIPPED KHOMEINI PIC PUTS OPPOSITION ON ITS HEELS

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2019
TAGS: IR PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: IRAN: RIPPED KHOMEINI PIC PUTS OPPOSITION ON ITS HEELS

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CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: On December 14 the Tehran Prosecutor General
announced the arrest of several unnamed individuals accused of
desecrating a portrait of the Islamic Republic's revered founder
'Imam' Khomeini, purportedly filmed during the December 7
anti-government protests on Student Day. The December 8
broadcast of the footage - in which several unidentifiable men
ripped then burned an image of Ayatollah Ali Khomeini - touched
off a firestorm in Iran and elicited condemnation from every
political figure of note, as well as ominous threats from the
IRGC. As the hardline media used the images as "evidence" that
the opposition's goals were to overthrow the Islamic Republic,
seminarians and government supporters took to the streets to
denounce the "insult" to Khomeini. 'Green Path' leaders Mousavi
and Karrubi furiously tried to distance their movement from the
act, suggesting that the incident was manufactured to discredit
them and pave the way for a harsher crackdown by hardliners in
the government. On December 13, Supreme Leader Khamenei
condemned 'those who refuse to accept the election results' for
encouraging people to confront the system, and for emboldening
Iran's enemies. If nothing else, this incident has put Iran's
'Green Path' opposition movement on its heels. END SUMMARY




2. (C) On December 8, Iranian state television repeatedly
broadcast a short video clip of several men ripping up then
setting afire a poster-sized photo of the Islamic Republic's
late founder, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, purportedly filmed
December 7 during the Student Day anti-government
demonstrations. The desecration of Khomeini's portrait drew
immediate condemnation from virtually every political actor in
Iran, as hardliners rushed to leverage the incident as evidence
that 'Green Path' oppositionists and their leaders are intent on
toppling, not reforming, the Islamic Republic system. At the
other end of the political spectrum, oppositionists scrambled to
proclaim their loyalty to Khomeini and to the system, suggesting
that the video had been concocted to discredit their movement
and provide a pretext for the even harsher suppression of
government critics. Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of the
Ayatollah with well-known reformist tendencies, harshly
criticized the state broadcaster IRIB for airing these images,
asserting the move was engineered by pro-Ahmadinejad forces to
incite public sentiment.




3. (C) Outrage over the footage has supposedly sparked protests
across Iran, though the extent to which the protests are an
organic response is unclear. Seminaries students in particular
have rushed to defend Khomeini; classes at some seminaries were
canceled and BBC Farsi reports protests at several seminaries,
including in Qom, Tehran, Mashhad. Iran state TV broadcast
footage of seminary students chanting, "Death to America,"
"Death to Israel," and "Death to the UK." The bazaar in Qom
closed and there have been scattered popular demonstrations in
support of Khomeini around Iran as well.




4. (C) The controversy is also playing out on campuses, where
students groups are competing to showcase their respect for
Khomeini while hardline students are rallying to 'defend' Imam
Khomeini. Tehran University in particular is reportedly
extremely tense, and has witnessed daily demonstrations and
incursions by the security forces since December 7. On December
13, a report by the official state news agency IRNA implied that
Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, had stoked the controversy by
addressing students at various campuses in Tehran. Predictably,
the IRGC and Basij issued statements promising to "crush" those
responsible.




5. (C) During a December 13 address to seminary students and
clerics carried live on state television Supreme Leader Khamenei
condemned this act against the late Imam, characterizing it as
another attempt by Iran's opponents to create discord. He
exhorted Iranian oppositionists to stop their anti-regime
activities, which only serve to embolden Islamic Iran's enemies.
Acknowleding that all right-thinking Iranians are outraged by
the desecration of Khomeini's picture, he nonetheless stressed
the need for dealing with it 'peacefully,' since further strife
will only please Iran's enemies.




6. (C) Late in the day December 14, IRNA broke the news that

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several individuals accused of defiling Khomeini's photograph
had been arrested and were undergoing interrogation. Tehran
Prosecutor General Abbas Jafa'ari-Dolatabadi promised that "no
mercy will be shown to those guilty of insulting the Imam
[Khomeini] and top officials of the system." According to
Dolatabadi, at least one person has already confessed to the
crime.




7. (C) COMMENT: Having largely ignored protesters directly
attacking Khamenei, the IRIG's condemnation en masse of the
footage gives the affair a somewhat manufactured appearance.
Indeed, the breadth of the reaction, including seminary
protests, the media blitz, and statements from nearly every key
official or government body, suggests the IRIG is marshaling its
resources in a coordinated attempt to tarnish the opposition.
Whether the IRIG orchestrated the entire affair, including the
footage itself, or is simply taking advantage of an opportunity
is unclear. But the regime has not been above such tactics
before, most notably Khatami-era Iran when there were claims
that the government used scantily-clad and raucous youth driving
through the streets during religious holidays shouting
pro-Khatami slogans to discredit the reformist movement.




8. (C) COMMENT, CONT: Regardless, the IRIG's effort has put the
opposition on the defensive. Opposition leaders have denounced
any denigration of Khomeini but have had to defend the Student
Day protesters and their movement - indications that they
consider the accusations against them to be significant.
Khamenei in his speech signaled that he is losing his patience
with the opposition leaders, saying that though he hasn't
rejected them, the opposition has persisted in trying to
distance itself from the regime. Whether his comments indicate a
readiness to arrest opposition leaders remains to be seen; with
the purported perpetrators of the crime now in custody, their
forthcoming 'confessions' may be an indicator of the regime's
intent. END COMMENT.
EYRE