IRAN: REGIME TAKES STUDENT DAY PROTESTS IN STRIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000525

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/8/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM IR
SUBJECT: IRAN: REGIME TAKES STUDENT DAY PROTESTS IN STRIDE

REF: RPO DUBAI 521

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CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: Iran's December 7 'Student Day' demonstrations
appear to have been largely confined to campuses and their
immediate surroundings, but drew significant participation and
in several cases ended in violent confrontations between
protestors and security forces and/or government supporters.
Estimates of the protests' size vary from a few thousand to tens
of thousands of participants, in at least a dozen universities
throughout Iran. Eyewitnesses report many arrests though the
actual tally of those arrested or injured is unknown. 'Green
Path' opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karrubi, and
former President Khatami did not attend the rallies, though
Mousavi's wife did appear briefly at Tehran University before
being sprayed with tear gas. Breaking with longstanding
tradition, neither President Ahmadinejad nor any other notable
IRIG officials ventured onto campuses to deliver the customary
Student Day addresses. END SUMMARY.




2. (C) Student Day demonstrations appear to have been largely
confined to campuses and their immediate surroundings, but drew
significant participation and in several cases ended in violent
confrontations between protestors and security forces and/or
government supporters. Despite extensive government attempts to
prevent Student Day opposition activities (reftel),amateur
video posted to the Internet and eyewitness accounts indicate
that anti-government protests took place at at least a dozen
universities across Iran. In Tehran, campus protests spilled
into surrounding streets, where participants clashed with
security forces and Basijis wielded batons and tear gas to
disperse protestors. Initial reports that one or two protestors
were shot in Tehran have not been substantiated; however,
eyewitness reports abound of security forces firing into the
air. One reformist news website reports that a young woman was
badly injured after being thrown from a building at a university
in western Iran. The number of arrests is not yet known, though
the detention of at least one prominent student activist at Amir
Kabir University was well documented, and Fars News reports
detainees are being interrogated. Opposition websites allege
that dozens of protestors were arrested, both on and off campus.
The conservative website Jahan News reported several "honorary"
BBC reporters were arrested at Tehran University while filming a
demonstration.




3. (C) 'Green Path' titular leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi
Karrubi and former President Khatami did not participate in any
events. A reformist website reported that as on November 4,
Mousavi was prevented from joining the students by government
supporters who surrounded his office. Khatami issued a
statement December 8 expressing his 'regret' that he was unable
to join the students. Mousavi's well-known wife Zahra Rahnavard
did appear at the University of Tehran campus briefly before
being 'escorted' away by security guards, reportedly after being
sprayed with tear gas. Ayatollah Rafsanjani's outspoken daughter
Faezeh Hashemi is clearly visible in videos marching with
demonstrators near Tehran University; initial reports that she
was arrested appear incorrect.




4. (C) Breaking with longstanding tradition, neither President
Ahmadinejad nor any other notable IRIG officials ventured onto
campuses to deliver the customary Student Day addresses. No
official reason was given for Ahmadinejad's decision to stay
away from campuses this year. Unsurprisingly, Iranian official
press coverage of the day's demonstrations was either absent or
severely distorted: one especially surreal official press report
noted that the demonstrators used tear gas against the security
forces. As in the past, pro-IRGC 'Fars News' set the tone for
official coverage, with all other official and semi-official
media following its lead. Demonstrators were consistently
referred to as 'Mousavi supporters' while pro-government Basiji
demonstrators were labeled as 'exalted students.' Official
press cited the demonstrators as few in number and seeking to
bring about violent altercations, while the putatively far
greater pro-government Basiji demonstrators were commended for
their restraint in the face of these provocations.




5. (C) COMMENT: Participants in the December 7 protests were
almost exclusively students - perhaps not surprising given the
event's nature. The demonstrators were able to force the
government's hand in significant ways, to include: extensive

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round-ups of 'the usual suspects' in the build-up to December 7;
the unprecedented show of force around Tehran campuses on the
day itself; the hobbling of communications such as internet,
mobile phone and SMS; the three-day shutdown of foreign media;
and the conspicuous absence of notable IRIG officials from
Student Day ceremonies. Nevertheless, the government again
proved it can rather easily contain 'Green Path' popular
protests. Whether the 'Green Path' opposition will be able to
regain its ability to demonstrate broad-based support among the
larger population will be next tested on the Shia mourning
ceremonies that culminate in Tasua and Ashura, December 26 and
27 respectively. END COMMENT.
EYRE