IRAN: OPPOSITION DEFIES THREATS, DEMONSTRATES RESILIENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000479

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/5/2019
TAGS: IR PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: IRAN: OPPOSITION DEFIES THREATS, DEMONSTRATES RESILIENCE

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CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: One day after the November 4 official ceremony
and 'Green Path' protests, Tehran and other Iranian cities where
protests occurred were quiet. Based on reporting from several
sources on the November 4 protests, it appears that protests
were smaller in Tehran than on Qods Day, but that protests took
place in more cities across the country. In Tehran, Iran's
security forces confronted crowds, dispersing them with tear and
pepper gas and baton attacks, and appeared to have been
successful in preventing opposition crowds from gathering in any
one location en masse. Protesters were on the streets,
demonstrating their resilience despite the violence they
encountered. The number of protests is hard to gauge, but
regardless of the exact number of protesters, the 'Green Path'
opposition at least demonstrated its ability to steal attention
from the regime's staged demonstrations and to remain an
irritant for the government. The question no longer seems to be
if the opposition will be able to rally its supporters, but when
its next opportunity to do so will be. The next official holiday
likely to attract opposition protests are the religious holidays
Ta'sua and Ashura on December 26 and 27. Students' Day on
December 6 may also be a flashpoint, especially on university
campuses. END SUMMARY.




2. (C) IRIG security forces seemed determined to prevent a
repeat of the Qods Day crowds and to maintain their control over
Tehran's streets. To do so the IRIG mobilized a massive
security presence, with the IRGC, Law Enforcement Forces (LEF),
Basij, and plain clothes personnel all reportedly on the streets
in large numbers. (NOTE: The affiliation of the plain clothes
personnel is unclear; security forces began using such forces
during the summer protests and our contacts have noted that they
are an effective tactic in creating fear among crowds of
protesters. END NOTE.) The security forces confronted crowds,
dispersing them with tear and pepper gas and baton attacks, and
on at least one occasion firing weapons into the air, and appear
to have been successful in preventing crowds from gathering in
any one location en masse though their attempt to prevent
University of Tehran students from leaving campus appear to have
failed.




3. (C) Internet video shows security forces making some arrests
although the number detained is unknown. A Western journalist
based in the region said contacts inside Iran confirmed media
reports that an Iranian AFP correspondent was arrested while
covering the street demonstrations. There are reports of many
injuries as well; one woman applying for a visa in Dubai said
her son had been hit in the head with a baton and another said
her brother's leg was broken. However, there are as yet no
reports of any deaths during the protests.




4. (C) Tehran, as expected, witnessed the largest protests and
there were also protests in Rasht, Esfahan, Zahedan, Kermanshah,
Tabriz, Mashhad, and Shiraz, though there is less known about
the protests outside of Tehran. The protesters chanted slogans
supporting opposition leaders Mehdi Karrubi and Mir Hossein
Mousavi, decrying Ahmadinejad and Khamenei, and asking if
President Obama supports the people of Iran or its government.
Opposition leader Mehdi Karrubi attempted to join a protest but
was evacuated by supporters after security forces fired tear gas
on his party. According to reformist press reports, security
forces surrounded Mir Hossein Mousavi's residence, preventing
him from leaving. There are no reports of former President
Khatami's whereabouts during the day. Gauging the scale of the
protests is difficult. Western media citing sources in Iran
estimated that in total tens of thousands took to the streets in
defiance of government threats, while others have estimated that
at least a million joined protests in Iran.




5. (C),One prominent expatriate with strong ties to 'Green
Path' oppositionists inside Iran told IRPO that he was pleased
with yesterday's demonstrations, and that the 'Green Path' was
contemplating even more substantive civil disobedience on their
next event, Tasua'a and Ashura (December 26 and 27). (NOTE: We
have not independently confirmed these statements. END NOTE) He
also said:



- the Tehran crowd was 'more than one million;'

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- Green Path opposition leaders were pleased with protests in
other cities, 'especially Tabriz, which has now joined the
movement;'



- many slogans were directed against Supreme Leader Khamenei,
and in some cases pictures of him were pulled down and trampled;



- regime security tactics were to prevent protesters from
assembling, and as such 'Green Path' oppositionists changed
their tactics, dispersing at the first threat of violence from
security forces. As such, there were only approximately 300
people arrested, although many wounded; and,



- there were 'approximately 50 thousand' security forces
mobilized in Tehran, many in plainclothes who sought to attack
'Green Path' protesters to demonstrate popular aversion to their
cause.




6. (C) COMMENT: Regardless of the exact number of protesters, at
a minimum the opposition demonstrated its ability to steal
attention from the regime's staged protests and remain an
irritant for the government. The opposition showed its
resilience and willingness to continue protesting despite the
violence it encountered. The question no longer seems to be if
the opposition will be able to rally its supporters, but when it
will do so again. The next official holiday likely to attract
opposition protests are the religious holidays of Ta'sua and
Ashura on December 26 and 27. Students' Day on December 6 may
also be a flashpoint, especially on university campuses.




7. (C) COMMENT (CONT): Also notable is the lack of information
coming out of Iran via Western media or otherwise. The arrest of
the AFP reporter highlights the challenges of reporting from
Tehran: Iran severely limited the ability of foreign media to
cover events in Iran following this summer's protest and the
loss of reporting from wire services, along with the ongoing
closure of reformist website and papers, could further limit our
understanding of events on the ground as they happen. END
COMMENT.
EYRE