IRAN: GOVERNMENT CLASHES WITH PROTESTORS ON 30TH ANNIVERSARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000474

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/4/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR PHUM
SUBJECT: IRAN: GOVERNMENT CLASHES WITH PROTESTORS ON 30TH ANNIVERSARY
OF AMERICAN EMBASSY SEIZURE

DUBAI 00000474 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: First reports from Iran indicate that security
forces moved aggressively against 'Green Path' opposition
supporters who took to the streets in a bid to co-opt the
government-sanctioned commemoration of the 1979 seizure of the
American Embassy in Tehran on November 4, with anecdotal reports
of "hundreds" of arrests. In what appears to be the most
serious clashes between protestors and government forces since
late July, uniformed and plain-clothes forces used tear gas and
batons to disperse demonstrators at many sites throughout
Tehran. Unconfirmed reports that security forces were firing
live rounds at protestors saturated blogs tracking the day's
events, as did reports that scores of people were injured.




2. (C) SUMMARY CONT: Dispelling rumors defeated presidential
candidate and leading government critic Mehdi Karrubi had been
arrested, Karrubi's son told Radio Farda that the 72-year old
cleric was injured slightly after security forces fired tear gas
at him and a crowd of supporters in Hafteh Tir Square in North
Tehran. Western media sources reported that Mir Hossein Mousavi
was prevented from leaving his home by government forces, but
may have issued a statement urging his supporters to 'remain in
the streets.' Though participation levels are not yet clear,
video footage posted to the Internet and eyewitness accounts
indicate that groups of hundreds or a few thousand protestors
convened in many locations in Tehran and several other cities,
including Shiraz and Isfahan. Witnesses also reported a heavy
security presence across Tehran, with riot police stationed in
key public venues from earlier morning. Unconfirmed blog
reports indicate the government may have disrupted mobile phone
networks and increased filtering of oppositionist websites.
Meanwhile, Iranian state television broadcast the government's
official rally in front of the former site of the American
Embassy, which was attended by "thousands" according to the
state news agency. END SUMMARY.




3. (C) Due to the government's virtual media blackout, it is too
early to have a full sense the scale of the November 4 clashes
between government opponents and security forces. However,
initial reports indicate that the regime made good on its
threats to "confront" unauthorized gatherings, reverting to
aggressive tactics to disperse demonstrators. From early
morning, reformist websites and blogs carried reports of a heavy
security presence throughout Tehran, particularly at the scenes
of earlier clashes such as Haft-e Tir Square. As demonstrations
got underway mid-morning, eyewitnesses posted accounts of
"hundreds" and "thousands" gathered at various locales. Later
in the day, a leading oppositionist website posted photos
showing several thousand green-clad demonstrators marching in
Tehran.




4. (C) Video already posted to the Internet corroborates that
opposition leader Mehdi Karrubi, one of the most strident
critics of the current government, participated in an
anti-government demonstration. Dispelling a flurry of rumors
that Karrubi had been beaten and arrested by security forces,
Karrubi's son told Radio Farda that supporters had evacuated the
72-year old cleric after police fired a canister of tear gas at
him. According to Mohammad Taghi Karrubi, his father was
"slightly burned" by the tear gas. Separately, a Western
reporter based in Dubai told IRPO that a "reliable journalist"
reported that security forces surrounded Mir Hossein Mousavi's
house in the early morning to prevent him from joining the
rallies. As yet, no reports have emerged that neither Mousavi
nor former President Khatami joined opposition supporters in the
streets.




5. (C) Not surprisingly, university campuses across Iran appear
to have been the focal points of much unrest. Many, as yet
unconfirmed, reports indicate that security forces cordoned off
the University of Tehran in an attempt to prevent students from
leaving campus to join protests. Additional unconfirmed
reports, some seemingly corroborated by amateur video posted to
the Internet, allege anti-government demonstrations at Sharif
University, Khaje Nasir University in Tehran,and many branches
of of Islamic Azad University.




6. (C) Meanwhile, state media reported that tens of thousands

DUBAI 00000474 002.2 OF 002


participated in the in the day's 'official' ceremonies at the
site of the former US Embassy in Iran. The participants chanted
"Death to America" and "Death to Israel,' among other
anti-Western and pro-Khamenei slogans. Former Majlis Speaker
Haddad Adel spoke at the ceremony and continued the
anti-American rhetoric. He said, "Iran's nation will change its
opinion towards the US on the day the US changes its cruel
behavior" and that, "despite slogans on support of democracy,
freedom and human rights, the US has always backed dictator
governments." (NOTE: Such rhetoric is typical for the November 4
demonstrations. END NOTE.)




7. (C) COMMENT: After a relatively muted response to the
opposition's show of strength on Qods Day (September 18),this
time the government appears to have reverted to the use of force
to put down those who would defy its authority. We don't yet
know whether this tactical shift is a response to nervousness
over increased university student participation in
demonstrations (Qods Day happened before the semester started),
or the regime's exasperation at the persistence of the 'Green
Path' opposition's unexpected staying power. END COMMENT.
EYRE