IRAN'S QODS DAY ENDS IN A DRAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000386

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM IR
SUBJECT: IRAN'S QODS DAY ENDS IN A DRAW

REF: RPO DUBAI 384

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CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy Richardson, Acting Director, Iran
Regional Presence Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: Tens of thousands of opposition supporters
marched in Iran's Qods Day celebrations on September 18, defying
government threats that anti-government protesters would be
dealt with severely. Despite the warnings and significant
efforts by the state to prevent large-scale anti-government
gatherings, demonstrators marched freely through major urban
centers across Iran. Notably, the response of the security
forces was muted compared to earlier demonstrations: widespread
clashes were not reported, and relatively few people seem to
have been arrested. Additionally, the key leadership figures
associated with the "Green Path" opposition - Mousavi, Karrubi,
and Khatami - took to the streets briefly, ending speculation
they would be denied freedom of movement by the government.
Expediency Council head Ayatollah Rafsanjani, who had been
removed from his post as Qods Day prayer leader by the
government in an attempt to control the day's message (reftel),
was also seen in the streets, with unconfirmed reports he was
marching with protesters. In the on-going political struggle,
Qods Day is best characterized as a draw rather than a defining
moment for either side: the opposition demonstrated its
resilience by bringing significant numbers to the street, but
the government declined to raise the temperature by taking
provocative steps such as brutally suppressing demonstrators or
arresting opposition leaders. END SUMMARY.



IRIG Ensures Official Qods Day Events Uninterrupted




2. (C) Qods Day's official events went as planned with
Ahmadinejad delivering a fiery pre-sermon speech alongside
speeches by Islamic Movement of Palestine leader Ramezan
Abdullah and hardline cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami.
Ahmadinejad tried to rally support for Palestine by labeling the
Holocaust a lie and a pretext for the founding of Israel, and by
blaming Europe for the start of anti-Semitism, as well as
claiming the "Zionists" manipulated Western governments. The
event was well orchestrated by the IRIG; state television showed
Ahmadinejad delivering his speech before thousands of his
supporters and there were no signs of the opposition protests
taking place throughout Iran. There are reports that the
government bussed in its supporters from throughout the country
and also used busses to block access to the Friday prayer
grounds, preventing the opposition from disrupting the day's
officially sanctioned speeches.




3. (C) Predictably, Iran's security forces were out in large
numbers; but, despite the IRGC's repeated warnings to the
opposition against demonstrating on Qods Day, the security
forces largely refrained from direct clashes with the
protesters. Opposition marches took place in several cities
after months of a severe crackdown that prevented even small
groups from assembling. Video and photos purportedly taken
during Qods Day rallies show the security forces standing by as
protests continue. The confrontations that did occur were
relatively minor in comparison with the clashes immediately
following the election. The Commander of the Law Enforcement
forces in Tehran said some "trouble-makers" were arrested;
otherwise, reformist websites have reported some clashes later
in the day, the use of tear gas to disperse some crowds, and the
arrest of some wearing green in Mashad. We have not seen
reports of protesters injured or killed.



Opposition Leaders in the Streets




4. (C) Mousavi, Karrubi, and Khatami each briefly participated
in marches in Tehran, debunking widespread rumors in the days
leading up to September 18 that they had been placed under
virtual house arrest. Photographers documented government
supporters jostling former President Khatami while he was
marching, knocking off his turban before his security team was
able to lead him away. There are similar reports that Mousavi
and Karrubi were also forced by thugs to leave marches
prematurely. Reformist media carried reports that the
harassment of the three was coordinated. (NOTE: This physical
intimidation is not a new tactic. Karrubi's turban was knocked
off by pro-government thugs in a similar incident in July, and
Khatami was also roughed up at a campaign event earlier in the

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year before he withdrew from the presidential race. END NOTE)




5. (C) Protests occurred in many cities; media and reformist
websites have reported protests in Tehran, Mashad, Rasht,
Tabriz, Shiraz, Esfahan, Bushehr, Kerman, Ahvaz, and, Yazd. The
scale of the protests is unclear. BBC Farsi reported tens of
thousands of protesters in Tehran and other cities while others
suggest the number of protesters was higher. However, the
government strictly enforced its ban on press coverage of
protests, leaving the true level of participation subject to
speculation based on anecdotal information. Reformist and other
websites have also reported that protesters were closer enough
to Ahmadinejad during a post-speech interview that shouts of
"Resign!" were heard in the background, and that the IRIB was
forced to broadcast an evening soccer match in black and white
because of the large number green-wearing spectators. There are
also reports, however, that the number of government supporters
outnumbered the opposition, likely reflecting the government's
oft-used tactic of bussing in supporters. The reports
collectively indicate that although there protests were
widespread, the protests immediately after the elections were
much larger than the crowds that turned out on Qods Day.




6. (C) COMMENT: The opposition successfully demonstrated that
popular anger over the disputed presidential election has not
diminished despite its brutal suppression of earlier protests
and well-publicized horrific treatment of detainees. Yet
government restraint on Qods Day should not be seen as a
strategic shift away from suppression toward compromise; rather,
the IRIG likely calculated that tolerating muted displays of
dissent on the streets was preferable to provoking a new round
of international criticism over violence against protesters in
advance of President Ahmadinejad's imminent trip to New York and
the October 1 negotiations with the P5+1 powers. The government
now though is likely to re-assert its control of Iran's streets
to prevent the opposition from staging additional protests. In
addition, with no significant public holidays in the near future
to co-opt, the opposition will have to find a new way to express
popular discontent. In the near term, we believe that the
government will continue to carefully weigh its options to
neutralize the "Green Path" opposition's key leaders in seeking
to restore domestic political stability. END COMMENT.
RICHARDSON