IRAN: QODS DAY BECOMES DOMESTIC BATTLEFRONT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000384

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IR
SUBJECT: IRAN: QODS DAY BECOMES DOMESTIC BATTLEFRONT

DUBAI 00000384 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy Richardson, Acting Director, Iran
Regional Presence Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: This year's Qods Day - traditionally a
government-orchestrated display of solidarity with Palestinians
- has morphed into a domestic political contest in the wake of
the disputed presidential election as oppositionists attempt to
co-opt the sanctioned rallies by mobilizing their supporters in
a show of strength. The government has countered by
substituting a hard-line cleric for the customary Qods Day
leader Ayatollah Rafsanjani in order to maintain control of the
message and suppress the participation of oppositionists. There
are clear indications that the government is fully prepared to
violently suppress those who would defy the government's
warning. Though some analysts predict that the September 18
event will be a defining moment for the opposition, our contacts
have asserted that it is more appropriately viewed as gauge of
the opposition's ability to draw supporters back into the
streets, particularly given Khatami and Karrubi's publicly
declared intent to participate. END SUMMARY.




2. (C) "International Jerusalem Day" - or Qods Day - was
established by Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Khomeini
shortly after the Revolution as an annual expression of popular
support for Palestinians and of venting anger toward Israel,
cornerstones of Iranian foreign policy rhetoric since 1979. As
such, the government strongly encourages, and in some cases
compels, participation. Turn-out in Tehran alone typically
numbers in the hundreds of thousands. Since Khomeini's death in
1989 until this year, Rafsanjani has traditionally led the
annual ceremony from the pulpit at Tehran University.




3. (C) In keeping with their tactic of using officially
sanctioned public events as cover for bringing opposition
supporters out in force, the key leaders associated with the
"Green Path" opposition - Mousavi, Khatami, Karrubi and Grand
Ayatollah Sanei - have all issued calls for massive
participation, correctly anticipating that government would not
risk losing face by canceling the event as they did with several
earlier Ramadan ceremonies. Supreme Leader Khamenei and
Ahmadinejad are also exhorting people to attend in an attempt to
use the expected large turn-out to claim 'victory' for the
system, much as the 85 percent voter participation rate was
heralded as a sweeping endorsement of the system.




4. (C) Following days of contradictory press reports, Iranian
state radio confirmed September 16 that in a break with
long-standing tradition, former President and current Expediency
Council Chairman Ayatollah Rafsanjani will not lead Qods Day
Friday Prayers on September 18. Instead, hardliner Ayatollah
Ahmad Khatami (no relation to former President Mohammad Khatami)
will deliver the main sermon after opening remarks by President
Ahmadinejad. (NOTE: Ahmadinejad has delivered the preliminary
remarks on Qods Day at least once before.) This switch
indicates that while poised to spin large turn-out in its favor,
the ruling clique is trying in actuality to suppress
participation of the opposition and maintain control of the
message by sidelining Rafsanjani, who is aligned with the
reformers.




5. (C) Other indications that the government is ready and
willing to suppress any large-scale discontent from
oppositionists tomorrow include reports that Basij units in the
outskirts of Tehran are being mobilized and that sections of
Tehran University campus are being cordoned off. In the past
twenty-four hours, the Revolutionary Guard and the police have
issued a slew of warnings, promising harsh punishments for
participants who are caught chanting "improper slogans."




6. (C) Many IRPO contacts are viewing Qods Day as a significant
indicator of the opposition's ability to muster large-scale,
visible support. A prominent oppositionist based in Europe
argued that streets full of protesters will not only buoy the
movement but have the tangible benefit of preventing the arrest
of Mehdi Karrubi. According to a Dubai-based analyst closely
aligned with reformers inside Iran, many believe that the
government is gearing up to increase repression of its opponents
regardless of what transpires September 18.



DUBAI 00000384 002.2 OF 002




7. (C) COMMENT: The rhetorical tug-of-war over Qods Day has
raised expectations that it could be a defining moment in the
political struggle unleashed by the June 12 election. The
government's decision to remove Rafsanjani from the equation
suggests that Khamenei is well aware of the scale of public
discontent and loathe to give the opposition a pretext for
massing against the government. Yet the regime has repeatedly
proved itself willing to brutally - and effectively - suppress
peaceful demonstrators. With the opposition exhorting its
supporters to turn out in defiance of the regime's warnings,
Qods Day represents an important gauge of the opposition's
resonance at the popular level. For the leaders of the
movement, the day could prove more fateful. Significant unrest
on the streets could give the hardliners agitating for the
arrest of the opposition leaders the necessary pretext to make
such a move, most likely against Karrubi, who is the most
vulnerable and has promised to attend the Qods Day rally. The
fact that Rafsanjani will not speak at the main event in Tehran
diminishes the likelihood that tomorrow will be a fateful day
for his future role in IRIG. END COMMENT.
RICHARDSON