IRAN: KARRUBI'S ARREST APPEARS IMMINENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000378

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM IR
SUBJECT: IRAN: KARRUBI'S ARREST APPEARS IMMINENT

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CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: There is widespread speculation that the
government of Iran is moving closer to arresting Hojjatoleslam
Mehdi Karrubi, the former Majlis Speaker and presidential
candidate who has become the most vocal and persistent critic of
the ruling establishment since the June 12 election. This
speculation follows a series of moves by the government
indicating Karrubi could be prosecuted for 'fabricating'
evidence of detainee rape and abuse, as well as an ominous
warning from Supreme Leader Khamenei during his September 11
sermon that opponents of the system, regardless of their
revolutionary backgrounds, will be dealt with decisively
(septel). Some oppositionist websites are reporting that
Khamenei has already authorized Karrubi's arrest, and that
execution of the warrant was only stayed by Expediency Council
Chairman Ayatollah Rafsanjani's threat to resign his numerous
government posts should Karrubi be arrested.




2. (C) SUMMARY CONT: As yet, Khamenei has resisted moving
directly against the key figures associated with the opposition,
no doubt fearing a backlash from both within the establishment
and at the popular level at a time when he is working to restore
a semblance of unity to Iran's fracturing political classes. It
is reasonable to assume that he will only authorize Karrubi's
arrest if he feels the firebrand cleric's continuing
provocations are a greater risk to system stability than the
potential consequences of such a move. Either way, he is
unlikely to move against Karrubi before Qods Day (September 18)
for fear of giving the opposition additional motivation to draw
supporters to the streets. END SUMMARY.




3. (C) Over recent days, the government has taken a number of
steps that appear to further prepare the ground for the eventual
arrest of Karrubi and Mousavi. These steps include:



-- The September 12 announcement by a high-level Judiciary panel
that the evidence of rape and other forms of detainee abuse
documented and put forward by Karrubi was knowingly fabricated
in order to discredit the government and to agitate public
opinion. The committee further recommended that "those involved
in the process" of compiling the allegations should be
prosecuted, and subsequently Judiciary Head Larijani endorsed
the findings of this investigative committee.



-- Arrests of the top aides to both Mousavi and Karrubi,
including Dr. Alireza Beheshti, who was held several days before
being released September 13 on $500,000 bail. (NOTE: Beheshti,
Mousavi's closest advisor and his point person on detainee
abuse, was long thought inviolable because of his father's
status as a martyred icon of the Revolution and a peer of
Ayatollah Khomeini. END NOTE)



-- Issuance of an arrest warrant in early September for
Karrubi's son on charges of financial wrongdoing.



-- Closure of Karrubi's office on September 7 and the subsequent
blocking of the website of his political party, Etemad-e Melli.



-- The September 12 move by the Supreme Council of National
Security to ban mention of Mousavi, Karrubi and the June 12
presidential election by the Iranian press.




4. (C) IRPO contacts reflect a growing consensus among Iran
observers that the above steps indicate the government is
steadily inching toward direct confrontation with the key
leadership figures of the "Green Wave" opposition, should they
not back down. Karrubi is widely believed to be the most
vulnerable, given his persistent and scathing criticism of
Ahmadinejad and the government's conduct after the election. A
Dubai-based political analyst characterized Karrubi's arrest as
a matter of "when" rather than "if." Indeed, a story citing

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sources "close to Rafsanjani" emerged on many opposition and
reformist websites September 13 alleging that Khamenei has
already authorized Karrubi's arrest, and that the former Majlis
Speaker remains free only because Rafsanjani personally
intervened with the Supreme Leader and threatened to resign his
many government posts if the warrant was executed.




5. (C) COMMENT: "Qods Day" Friday, September 18, is
traditionally a time when the Iranian government tries to
mobilize large street demonstrations in support of the
Palestinian cause. This year the opposition plans to use Qods
day as a show of strength of its own numbers, correctly
assessing that the government would lose too much face by
canceling this event. As such, it is unlikely that the regime
will risk inciting oppositionists even further by a Karrubi
arrest before this event. Similarly, the government may wish to
give Karrubi a few days to weigh the benefits of not escalating
but rather remaining quiet in the face of the Judiciary panel's
finding. However, if Karrubi continues on his current
incendiary path it seems likely that the government will move
against him, with no one knowing the consequences of such an
escalation. END COMMENT.
EYRE