IRAN: RAFSANJANI'S COMMENTS RE: KHAMENEI: RECAPITULATION NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L RPO DUBAI 000347

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/24/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IR
SUBJECT: IRAN: RAFSANJANI'S COMMENTS RE: KHAMENEI: RECAPITULATION NOT
CAPITULATION

CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: The August 23 comments by Expediency Council
President Ayatollah Rafsanjani in which he urged fealty to
Supreme Leader Khamenei, was not so much a capitulation to the
Supreme Leader as it was a rhetorical dressing of his more
substantive comments, in which he continued to call for return
to the rule of law and civil treatment of the opposition. END
SUMMARY.




2. (C) On August 23 Expediency Council (EC) President Ayatollah
Hashemi Rafsanjani opened a meeting of this body by calling for
national unity, and urging adherence to the guidance of Supreme
Leader Khamenei. Some internal Iranian conservative media
associated with President Ahmadinejad (Fars News for instance)
highlighted those aspects of his comments urging obedience to
the Supreme Leader, and much Western press characterized this
speech as Rafsanjani 'changing his political position,' in
recommending a policy of submission to the Supreme Leader's
dictates. For example, AFP's August 23 story title was
"Switching Gears, Cleric Rafsanjani Urges Support for Supreme
Leader."




3. (C) However, a fuller reading of Rafsanjani's comments
indicate that his position on recent events has not changed, as
he said "to deal with the current situation ~ everyone must
follow the Supreme Leader's guidelines, abide by the
Constitution, and obey the law. Lawbreakers must be dealt with
properly, the current emotional atmosphere must be replaced with
a rational one, freedom of speech must be allowed, and suitable
responses must be made to constructive criticism. He also said
that 'justice must be served in the cases of those who were
arrested in the post-election unrest."




4. (C) IRPO contacts have also interpreted this speech as a
continuation of, vice deviation from, Rafsanjani's post-election
line. As a European-based Iran analyst told IRPO, "one
shouldn't listen to the first line, which is always that
Khamenei is of course our Leader and we should listen to him.
What is important is what comes afterwards. Since his Friday
Prayer speech Rafsanjani has consistently called for better
treatment of the opposition on TV and radio and creating an
atmosphere for positive criticism, redressing the violations
that have occurred, and responding more rationally (and less
violently) to critics. All of these concerns were in this
latest speech. As far as I am concerned Hashemi is still a
thorn, giving the coverage necessary for the continued
activities of Mousavi, Karrubi and Khatami." Another IRPO
contact, a former Majlis representative, pointed out that
Rafsanjani is a true pragmatist and far more politically astute
than Supreme Leader Khamenei. As such, he is seeking to walk a
fine line between opposing a Khamenei-Ahmadinejad alliance he
sees as destructive to the regime on the one hand while also
seeking to preserve the current structure of the regime, since
the source of his power is inextricably intertwined with the
status quo.

EYRE