Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09RPODUBAI319
2009-08-05 12:41:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Iran RPO Dubai
Cable title:  

IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI:WINDOW ON IRAN-AUGUST 5,

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EINV ENRG EPET ETRD SOCI IR 
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VZCZCXRO5220
RR RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDIR #0319/01 2171241
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 051241Z AUG 09
FM RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0481
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHDIR/RPO DUBAI 0482
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000319 

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/5/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EINV ENRG EPET ETRD SOCI IR
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI:WINDOW ON IRAN-AUGUST 5,
2009

DUBAI 00000319 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy Richardson, Acting Director, Iran
Regional Presence Office, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000319

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/5/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EINV ENRG EPET ETRD SOCI IR
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI:WINDOW ON IRAN-AUGUST 5,
2009

DUBAI 00000319 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy Richardson, Acting Director, Iran
Regional Presence Office, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (S) Endorsement, Inauguration Initiate Ahmadinejad's Second
Term: Supreme Leader Khamenei officially endorsed Ahmadinejad
for the presidency on August 3 and today Ahmadinejad took the
oath of office during his inauguration. Both events have been
scrutinized for their clues to the elite infighting currently
playing out in Iran. Many media outlets and commentators noted
an awkward exchange between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad during the
endorsement; whereas in 2005 Khamenei affectionately embraced
Ahmadinejad, this year the Supreme Leader appeared to shun such
an embrace, allowing Ahmadinejad only to kiss his shoulder.
Additionally, a few IRPO contacts interpreted a passage in
Khamenei's remarks as a warning -- Khamenei said the President
would have his approval as long as he serves "progress and
justice." The Supreme Leader, however, made similar comments in
endorsing Ahmadinejad's first term. IRPO does not judge the
endorsement ceremony to have clarified the relationship between
the two, though it is notable that some Iranian observers
consider the endorsement's proceeding to have signaled
Khamenei's displeasure with Ahmadinejad. Other points:



-- Mir Hossein Mousavi, former President Khatami and Expediency
Council Chairman Rafsanjani did not attend either ceremony. The
Majles, where Ahmadinejad was inaugurated, was not full,
suggesting that the members of parliament who had vowed to
boycott the ceremony did so.



-- Khamenei's verbal sparring with Rafsanjani and the opposition
continued. In a probable bid to rebut Rafsanjani's warning that
Iran risked losing its republican nature, Khamenei during the

endorsement ceremony argued that Iran's Islamic and republican
identities could not be divorced from one another. And
following up on his own warning that the election aftermath
represented a test for Iran's political elite, Khamenei said
some of the elite had failed the test. It is unclear if he was
referring to the many standing trial already or others, such as
Mousavi.



-- There were reports of protests during both events.
Unconfirmed reports indicated security forces were out in force
around the Parliament, nearby metros were closed and cell phone
service blocked. There were no immediate estimates of the size
of the protests, although Twitter feeds claimed that bazaaris
had closed their shops in solidarity and that protesters either
had taken over the Tehran Bazaar police station or police there
had joined the protesters.



-- In his inaugural address, Ahmadinejad said he planned to
emphasize cultural values, family stability, economic reform,
and an active foreign policy in his second term. He expressed
confidence that he would have the support of all branches of
government and he invited the Iranian people, including elites
and intellectuals, to join forces and unite in pursuing these
goals. In concluding, he claimed that he could feel the Twelfth
Imam's divine presence and announced that Iran is beginning a
new age of the Revolution and a new chapter of humanity.



-- In reference to the international condemnation of the
post-election crackdown, Ahmadinejad said that certain Western
powers' refusal to congratulate his government proves that they
only value democracy when it serves their own interests. He
further claimed that the outrage displayed by these "sworn
enemies of human values" is a testament to the election's
magnitude. Although he said that Iran's enemies are trying to
depict the Islamic Republic's future as bleak, the Iranian
people are vigilant and know better. Ahmadinejad maintained
that his new administration will resist bullying powers, which
must be held accountable for their interference and occupation.
While he promised to support dialogue with all people and
nations based on justice and friendship, he warned that the
Islamic Republic will not tolerate insults, discrimination, or
abuse.




2. (S) Fact Is Fiction and TV Reality: The IRIG's efforts to
portray unrest as part of an intricate conspiracy of Western

DUBAI 00000319 002.2 OF 003


intelligence organizations, international NGOs, Israel, and
their Iranian fellow travelers and its simultaneous silence on
human rights abuses by security forces are further inflaming
passions on both sides. If the show trial is intended to offer
"conclusive proof" of velvet revolution and build support for
the government, then photos of bloody demonstrators and reports
of families paying a "bullet fee" to reclaim bodies of the dead
are evoking images of a brutal dictatorship come to power. A
Tehran journalist who supports the opposition told us that
rumors and unconfirmed reports of Basij brutality are widely
believed, and he cited as an example claims that protesters
killed by security forces had been buried in unmarked mass
graves are seen as fact within opposition circles. At the same
time, the Dubai bureau chief of a Western news service told us
that although the service's Iranian reporters in Tehran are no
longer being directly threatened as they were immediately after
the election -- one was told by an anonymous caller his fingers
would be cut off if he kept reporting "lies" -- they remain
subject to restrictions on their ability to report on protests
and other issues the IRIG does not want covered. Comment: The
competition between the IRIG and the opposition for domestic and
international public opinion is leaving little middle ground for
objective, credible reporting. Rather, the alternative
perceptions of reality are appealing to emotions on both sides
and likely hardening attitudes.




3. (S/NF) IRPO Contact Comments on Trial Indictment: Our
contact compared the indictment to those used during "Stalinist"
courts and criticized it as inconsistent, full of legal
mistakes, and outside the context of the Iranian legal system.
He complained that many of the alleged crimes, such as taking
pictures or working on a presidential candidate's staff, are not
even crimes. Our contact said he has worked for the two Iranian
NGOs named in the indictment; neither of their directors,
despite being included in the indictment, have been arrested.
Summarizing, he maintained the indictment is a bid to convince
the government's hardline supporters of the threat of a velvet
revolution and a warning to the opposition. Comment: Our
contact follows political matters in Iran closely and was living
in Iran until recently. As he is not a lawyer, his assessment
is probably best viewed as reflection of the attitudes of
intellectuals and the opposition rather than that of a legal
expert.




4. (S) Iranian Energy Consultant Expects Appointment of IRGC
Official as Oil Minister and Predicts Continued Industry
Slowdown: According to an Iran-based oil sector consultant, the
rumor in Iran's energy industry is that Ahmadinejad will ask
IRGC Commander Seyyed Ghasemi to serve as Minister of Oil in his
second term. Ghasemi currently oversees Khatam-ol-Anbia, the
IRGC's industrial and engineering branch that has enjoyed a
wealth of government contracts under the patronage of
Ahmadinejad. In reference to recent talk of U.S. sanctions on
Iran's refined petroleum imports, the consultant doubted that
Ahmadinejad's administration, already struggling with a large
fiscal deficit, would be able to construct new refineries and
upgrade older refining facilities in order to effectively shield
Iran from a gasoline shortage. The consultant claimed that the
Iranian government had originally earmarked 4 billion USD for
overhauling Bandar Abbas refinery ("the only refinery the
government is serious about"),but financial problems forced the
government to reduce the project's budget to 500 million USD,
which even Chinese and local Iranian firms, widely known in the
energy industry for "cutting corners," considered too low an
offer. The consultant maintained that, despite press statements
by government officials to the contrary, the current financial
situation in Iran has frozen most oil and gas projects, with the
notable exception of the South Pars gas field. When asked about
the feasibility of a strike in Iran's energy sector, the
consultant, who participated in the oil sector strike during the
Islamic Revolution, said that with Iran's current levels of
unemployment "any Iranian would kill for a job; no one can
afford to risk their income in this financial environment." He
did claim, however, that a significant split is developing in
Tehran's bazaar as small shop owners, whose sales have suffered
during the post-election unrest, are growing resentful of the
powerful bazaari backers of the Motalefeh Party, who have
benefited economically from the party's ties to the government.




5. (S) Visa Applicants in Dubai Suggest Election's Economic

DUBAI 00000319 003.2 OF 003


Aftermath Uneven: Several Iranian businessmen applying for
visas in Dubai asserted that the election unrest had shaken the
people's confidence in the country, causing people to hold on to
their money. A travel agent, for instance, said that
immediately after the election bookings dropped 50 percent,
though now bookings are beginning to increase again. The
construction sector, in trouble even before the election, also
allegedly slowed further. An owner of a construction firm in
Mashad said prices for residential real estate there are down 50
percent from their highs. However, some businessmen claimed to
have seen little effect from the election. A grocery store
owner said people still have to eat in explaining why his own
business remained unaffected. An employee of a drug import
company and an importer and manufacturer of textiles said sales
remain pretty strong.




6. (S/NF) Former MP Recommends Publicizing USG Perspective on
Civil Aviation Sanctions: A former two-term Majles
representative of Iran's Jewish community said this his close
friend Leon Davidian, who represented the Armenian community in
the sixth Majles, was killed in the July 15 Caspian Air crash.
Our contact relayed that the Iranian public generally holds "the
West" responsible for the dismal safety record of the domestic
air travel industry. He said that in the wake of the crash, he
gave an interview on Al-Alam network (the IRIG's Arabic language
television channel that is broadcast externally) in which he
slammed not only the "inhumane sanctions" but also the Iranian
government for allowing domestic airline companies to cost save
by using "the cheapest Russian planes available." The former MP
stated that few, if any, Iranians are aware that the IRIG is
foregoing the opportunity to purchase quality spare parts
through the waiver program. He then asked why the U.S.
Government was not making "better use" of VOA broadcasts to
explain the United States' policies toward Iran, noting that the
availability of aircraft spare parts was an issue we could
"easily" turn against the IRIG just by publicizing "the truth."
Comment: Sanctions against Iran's civil aviation industry are a
rare issue where the Iranian government's attempts to lay blame
at the doorstep of the United States and our allies appear to be
effective, even among IRPO's relatively worldly and affluent
contacts who are typically well-versed in U.S. policy toward
Iran.
RICHARDSON