IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JULY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000306

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM IR
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JULY
29, 2009

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CLASSIFIED BY: Kathleen McGowan, Acting Director, Iran Regional
Presence Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) Week Ahead Holds Flashpoints for Unrest: July 30 is the
fortieth day after the death of the demonstrators killed on June
20, including the now-iconic Neda Soltan, whose death was
captured by cell phone video. Fortieth day mourning services
are traditional within Islam and provided critical momentum to
the Iranian Revolution 30 years ago. Although the Interior
Ministry has denied Mousavi's request to hold a memorial
service, crowds are still expected to gather to honor those
killed. The IRIG has attempted to prevent public tributes to
those killed during the unrest, setting the stage for additional
clashes with security forces. Next week brings Ahmadinejad's
inauguration on August 5. Resentment towards Ahmadinejad from
across the political spectrum has increased since the election,
particularly after his efforts to install a protege as his First
Vice President (see below). Many Majles members have vowed not
to attend the inauguration so the event may be a gauge for the
government's unity. There are also reports swirling around the
internet of demonstrations planned for the day, again increasing
the odds of conflict.




2. (S/NF) Insider Comments on Mashaei Controversy: The Director
of the Center for Interreligious Dialogue (please protect),
which is part of the IRIG's Islamic Culture and Relations
Organization, explained that conservatives' condemnation of
Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei's relatively moderate statement about
Israelis and his attendance at controversial cultural events
abroad mask the real reason behind their objection to him. In
truth, most Mashaei critics object to his purported belief in
the imminent return of the "Imam Zaman" (Twelfth Imam) -- an
interpretation viewed as "superstitious" by many, even staunchly
conservative, Iranians. Jokingly referring to Ahmadinejad as
Mashaei's "marja" (source of emulation),he asserted that
Mashaei has become a lightening rod for the clerical
establishment's discomfort with Ahmadinejad's own well-known
attachment to the Imam Zaman, which many clerics view as
overstepping laymen's boundaries into matters of religious
interpretation. The CID Director, who was for many years a
professor of religious philosophy at Tarbiat Modares University,
noted that Mashaei's appointment to a senior role in
Ahmadinejad's government in defiance of the wishes of senior
clerics and conservative politicians - to include Supreme Leader
Khamenei - has up-ended the establishment, which had tried to
maintain a unified front since the election to rebuff the
reformers' challenge. Lines have blurred, he alleged, noting
that "reformist conservatives" and "conservative reformists" are
coalescing against Ahmadinejad in the wake of the controversy.
Comment: With many across the political spectrum once again
coalescing against Ahmadinejad, the critical unknown now is the
degree of Khamenei's support for the oft-beleaguered President.
Khamenei's support to Ahmadinejad was critical to the
president's re-election but after having publically defied the
Supreme Leader, their relationship may have frayed.




3. (S/NF) Mousavi Seeks TV Channel; Details of Ruholamini Death
Accurate: The head of Iran's National Academy of Medical
Sciences (please protect),in Dubai for a visa interview,
related details of a meeting he had with Mir Hossein Mousavi two
weeks ago and provided insight into the beating death of Mohsen
Ruholoamini, whose physician father is his colleague. Comment:
Our contact, a noted nephrologist who served as the Deputy
Minister of Health during former President Rafsanjani's first
term (1989-93),says that he maintains close ties with the
Rafsanjani family and other key political figures, including
Mousavi, whom he meets monthly in his capacity as the head of
one of the four national academies in Iran. (Note: Mousavi is
the head of the National Academy of Arts. The other two
national academies are for literature and science.) Key points
from our conversation:



-- Mousavi explained that he was creating a political "front"
because he had been told he would not be permitted to establish
a political party. He said his top priority for the front would
be to set up a television channel based outside of Iran that
could broadcast the reformers' messages and uncensored news to
viewers inside the country. He emphasized that Mousavi insists
the channel would not rely on foreign funding or content, but is
a requirement for linking up with "average" Iranians, whose
access to information is currently limited to state propaganda
or the "agendas of outsiders."

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-- Our contact said that Mousavi and Khatami are working
together "as brothers" and closely coordinating all statements
and actions. He suggested that though Karrubi's continued
defiance of the election result was welcomed, he is not part of
the inner circle of reformist leaders.



-- He described Abdolhossein Ruholamini, whose son's death in
prison has led conservatives to open criticize the government's
conduct, as a professional colleague whom he has known
personally for decades. Ruholamini, as the head of the Ministry
of Health's Pasteur Institute, is well-regarded by other
doctors, but has long been known for holding "extremely
conservative " principlist political views. Our contact
believes the facts surrounding the story of his son Mohsen's
death at the hands of security forces in Evin Prison to be
consistent with what has been reported in the press. He said
Dr. Ruholamini, and his many close friends in the conservative
establishment, were most outraged by the fact that officials at
Evin were aware of Mohsen's family connections and yet still
abused him and then allowed him to die of an infection. He
observed the Ruholamini family's generational split on politics
is common: the children of "many " known conservatives openly
support Mousavi.



-- Our contact said that the consensus of the medical community
in Tehran - of which he is the de facto head - is that about 150
people were killed in the unrest following the election,
including people who died while in custody.




4. (S) Arab Journalist on Working in Iran and IRIG Suspicions of
the US: An Arab television journalist who had covered the
elections in Iran and their aftermath told us he left the
country because it became impossible to work amid IRIG
restrictions. Our contact said he had interpreted the arrest of
Roxanna Saberi as a warning to foreign correspondents prior to
the election. Her detention, and the subsequent arrests of
others, had a chilling effect on many journalists, so that when
the IRIG ordered them not to leave their offices while
demonstrations were on going, few dared risk doing so. He added
that he believed all his communications were tapped, so that he
felt cut off from sources and his network headquarters. He
finally left Tehran in frustration and is not sure if he will
return. He also told us that US efforts to avoid any appearance
of involvement in the elections had been well received by
officials in Iran during the campaigns. Once protests began,
however, deep-seated suspicions that the protests were part of a
US plot became common among his IRIG contacts. Comment: Our
contact said, echoing what others have told us, that the
decision to clamp down on media coverage during the election
aftermath had come from the IRGC, and the critical coverage of
Iran's handling of the protests has only reinforced hard-liners'
belief that foreign correspondents are conspiring against the
IRIG. The IRIG had succeeded in limiting information coming out
of Iran, he said, so that in the absence of independent
journalists, a clear picture of election fraud and the deaths of
demonstrators may never be known.




5. (C) Iranian Ex-pat Recounts Efforts to Protect his Land in
Iran: An Iranian businessman living in Dubai remarked that after
the Revolution - he left prior to the Revolution - he has had to
fend off repeated attempts by various officials to take his
property. Although he typically resorts to bribes, on one
occasion he decided to personally defend his land - a pistachio
farm in this case. As such he traveled to a courtroom in Kerman
province after learning that an "endowment" in Iran had filed a
claim for his property. The judge was shocked to see him
because the claim alleged our contact was dead. After composing
himself, the judge decided that resolving the issue would
require a local investigation, to commence in three months. Our
contact participated in the local investigation, which entailed
traveling with court officials to the town where his land is
located and interviewing people about his land; the
investigation did not resolve the case. But that day our
contact sat down with officials from the endowment and

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passionately explained the importance of the land to his family
and himself, promising that he would never stop fighting for his
land. Shortly thereafter, the endowment abandoned its claim.
Comment: IRPO has heard from other ex-pat Iranians that
protecting their land in Iran can be a full-time job; such
absentee landowners clearly represent an easy target for
unscrupulous officials.
MCGOWAN