IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JULY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000269

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/1/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV CASC IR
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JULY
1, 2009

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CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy Richardson, Acting Director, Iran
Regional Presence Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (S/NF) Unconfirmed Detention of Dual National American
Citizen in Iran: An Iranian-American journalist (please
protect) who was covering the presidential election for Tehran
Bureau from inside Iran until his credentials were revoked
several days ago said he personally witnessed the arrest of a
dual U.S.-Iran national during a pro-Mousavi street rally
several days before the election. According to the journalist,
who described the young man as a friend, he remains in detention
despite the fact that the other demonstrators detained at the
same time have since been freed. However, it is unclear if the
IRIG knows the detained individual is an American. The young
man's parents, who are in Iran, believe that publicizing his
American citizenship would further imperil their son, given the
government's recent attempts to portray the USG as an instigator
of the post-election unrest. Comment: The journalist disclosed
this information, while refusing to divulge the full name of the
person detained, during a conversation about the arrest of Greek
journalist Iason Athanasiadis in Iran last week. He argued that
Athanasiadis' case was greatly complicated by the public
disclosure that he is also a U.K. national.




2. (S) Ahmadinejad's Popularity Falling in the Arab World?: A
Syrian journalist who owns a media consultancy firm in Dubai
argued the post-election crisis in Iran has made Ahmadinejad
vulnerable to criticism in the Arab street. The journalist, a
contact of ConGen Dubai's Regional Media Hub, believes the
heated debates before the election made it clear to Arabs that
this election was about Iran, not the U.S. This distinction
provided an unprecedented opportunity for Arab commentators to
criticize Ahmadinejad without siding with the U.S. The contact
stressed, however, that Ahmadinejad has only lost standing among
"moderate" Arabs; he believes that the majority of Arabs hold
such strong opinions - whether for or against Ahmadinejad - that
recent events have likely not swayed their positions one way or
the other. The journalist observed that, in the tradition of
the Mahdi, many in the Arab street initially viewed Ahmadinejad
as a "benevolent dictator. " However, some moderate Arabs now
realize that, despite his image in the Arab world as a humble
man standing up to the West, Ahmadinejad is resented by many in
Iran for mismanagement, incompetence, and corruption. As a
result of this very public fall from grace, he argued that
Ahmadinejad is no longer the "untouchable, holy figure" in the
Arab world he once was.




3. (C) NIOC Executives Reportedly Purged After Election: The
purging of reformist-leaning activists and academics has moved
to Iran's oil sector, according to an Iranian businessman with
close contacts with managers at Iran's National Iranian Oil
Company (NIOC). Many senior managers at NIOC have been forcibly
"retired" since the election, supposedly because they were
suspected of harboring sympathy with the opposition. This
reported slate of dismissals comes amid the firing of Deputy Oil
Minister for Planning Akbar Torkan - a Mousavi supporter - after
he publicly questioned the government's oil sector policies in
the run-up to the June 12 election. Our contact - who does not
believe Mousavi would have won a fair election - speculated that
the NIOC "house cleaning" was the government's reaction to
widespread post-election rumors that the opposition would call
for a strike in Iran's oil sector. Comment: On June 1, Iran's
state news agency carried a report quoting NIOC's Director
General as saying that Torkan's ability to publicly criticize
the Ahmadinejad government without fear of retribution proved
that Ahmadinejad was tolerant of his critics. Torkan's removal
after the election suggests otherwise. The move also could be a
continuation of attempts Ahmadinejad has made in recent years to
go after Iran's "oil mafia," a term he frequently uses to refer
to Rafsanjani's network in the sector.




4. (S) Iran National Soccer Team Players Quit Voluntarily: A
colleague of Team Melli captain Ali Karimi and coach Afshin
Ghotbi, who was in Dubai to drop off Karimi's passport for a
visa, denied rumors that the players who wore green wristbands
during the June 17 match with South Korea have been forced off
the team. He said that the players faced limited professional
opportunities in Iran, and therefore chose to retire in order to
pursue opportunities with teams abroad. According to the
contact, the Iran Football Federation (IFF) has not taken any
disciplinary action against the players, and they are all still
in possession of their passports. In fact, two of the players -

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Mehdi Mahdavikia and Vahid Hashemian - have already traveled to
Europe without any incident. However, he said he suspects the
IFF may choose to quietly punish the players once tensions in
Iran cool down. He also alleged that the IFF asked FIFA to take
disciplinary action against the Team Melli players, but FIFA
refused the request because it violated rules against political
interference. According to the contact, Coach Afshin Ghotbi, an
American citizen, is not in trouble and will likely continue to
coach Team Melli. Comment: This account contradicts media
reports suggesting the players were forcibly retired, had their
passports confiscated, and were banned from travel. Although it
is clear that Ali Karimi's passport was not confiscated, we will
not know if he is able to leave the country until he tries to
travel to Los Angeles in the coming days. These events do
corroborate other reports IRPO has received about the
politicization of soccer under Ahmadinejad. Several contacts
have told us that Team Melli is always accompanied abroad by
government security officials; and it was reportedly a security
minder who ordered the players to remove the wristbands at
half-time. Despite Ahmadinejad's best efforts to capitalize on
Team Melli, participants in the recent demonstrations carried
placards the words "Iran's champions" emblazoned over a
photograph of the players wearing "Mousavi green. "




5. (S) Expediency Council Researcher Describes Drafting of
5-Year Development Plan: A researcher in the Expediency
Council's Center for Strategic Research (CSR) who was in Dubai
to get a visa explained the CSR's role in drafting the 5-Year
Development Plan. The researcher works in the agriculture
section in the economics branch of the CSR; he and 16 other
researchers/experts were responsible for drafting the "vision"
for the development plan's parts related to agriculture. The
vision, he said, includes production, investment, and
construction goals. Their contribution, combined with the plans
from other sections at the CSR, were then debated by the full
Expediency Council and forwarded to the Supreme Leader for his
approval. The Ahmadinejad administration is now responsible for
drafting the details of the plan and afterwards it will be sent
to the Majles for approval. The researcher discounted the
notion that Ahmadinejad might balk at the Expediency Council's
vision because the President had representatives in attendance
during the Expediency Council's debate about the plan and he
said the version approved by the Supreme Leader had everyone's
support. The agriculture section, and the CSR more generally,
is also responsible for reviewing the government's performance
relative to Development Plan benchmarks; these reports are also
provided to the Supreme Leader. He also described the structure
of the CSR, explaining that the CSR has 5 branches focusing on
the Economy, International Relations, New Technology such as
biotechnology and nanotechnology, Energy, and Social Welfare.
Within the Economic branch, which he knew more about, there are
departments for Agriculture, Planning, Microeconomics, and
Investment. The agricultural department has recently been
focusing on food security and irrigations projects. Comment:
The Expediency Council's role, per the constitution, is to
arbitrate disputes between the Guardians Council and the Majles
and provide guidance to the Supreme Leader. The CSR's hand in
formulating the development plan indicates that the EC
proactively interprets its mandate to provide guidance and has
broader involvement in formulating the government's strategic
direction than the constitution implies.




6. (C) Visa Applicants Comment on Post-Election Unrest: Iranian
visa applicants in Dubai have generally expressed frustration
with the outcome of the election. Many student applicants, in
particular, have complained about the results, and alleged
cheating, but few have been active participants in the
demonstrations against the regime. Several students from Tehran
University said that although they support the protesters, they
do not want to participate in the demonstrations due to the risk
of getting killed. Comments: The pool of visa applicants drawn
to Dubai is largely made up of the westernized northern Tehran
elite; a cohort that should theoretically be most aggrieved and
offended at the outcome of the election. The applicants in
Dubai, however, have not been at the forefront of the
demonstrations. Even the students, between preparing for their
final exams or coming to Dubai for their visa interviews, seem
to have had other things to do and avoided the demonstrations.
The collective sense from the applicants is one of resignation.
Notable comments:


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- A visa applicant working for MTN Irancell, a
quasi-government-owned mobile phone provider, said the company
received an order from the government the day before the
election instructing them to cut phone-based text messaging
services on election day. Per press reporting, the messaging
service remains off.



- A student from Tabriz said that many people there are upset
with the outcome of the election and that the city largely
supported Mousavi in the election. When asked why Tabriz has
remained quieter than Tehran, he said the heavy presence of the
riot police on the city's streets dissuaded many from joining
protests. The student, who is not Azeri himself, said that only
Mousavi was capable of leading the opposition movement, but at
the same time said the opposition is not about Mousavi himself,
it's about seeking change and opening Iran to the West.



- A student from Tehran University said she had not participated
in the demonstrations because she was busy preparing for and
taking her end-of-year exams. The student explained that the
exams were not uniformly delayed but that each school's faculty
decided whether to delay the exams. Her department - she is an
anthropology student - is not located near the areas of greater
unrest, and as a result, provided students the option of
delaying their exams or taking them on time. She said some
students delayed solely to participate in the demonstrations;
others, like herself, took their exams on time.



- Another student from Tehran University said the protests and
demonstrations were useful because they showed the world that
Iranians are not all "terrorists." However, he did not think
the protests would force changes in the government any time soon.
RICHARDSON