IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JUNE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000258

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IR
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JUNE
23, 2009

DUBAI 00000258 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Kathleen A. McGowan, Acting Director, Iran
Regional Presence Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (S/NF) Participant in Saturday Demonstration Describes
Security Forces: A long-standing IRPO contact who splits his
time between Tehran and Dubai described witnessing at least four
different groups of security forces on the streets of Tehran
during the demonstrations Saturday that were violently broken up
by IRIG security forces. He could not precisely identify the
affiliation of each group, but distinguished the groups from
each other by uniform, equipment, and behavior toward the
demonstrators.



-The most intimidating force, in his opinion, was the group he
alternately termed "nirooha-ye entezami" or "yeghaan-e vijeh"
in Farsi. He said members of this group were dressed either in
all black or in dark green camouflage and had protective padding
on their uniforms. He noted that these force were the most
heavily armed of the various forces on the street. They carried
stun guns, pellet guns and special riot gear, including full
coverage helmets. He said the men in dark green camouflage were
responsible for most of the arrests he witnessed, particularly
once groups of protestors were herded toward Azadi Square. He
said they rode in pairs on motorcycles and often drove through
the center of groups of demonstrators to force them to separate
from one another. He described watching these forces use stun
guns to take down demonstrators in order to then bind their
hands together and put them into black vans. He did not witness
the men in all black uniforms engaging the demonstrators, but
described watching them encircle groups of protestors and take
photographs and videos of them.



-Our contact said he had not previously seen the second group,
who wore "new-looking" uniforms of light brown camouflage and
had "modern" equipment. Their vehicles identified them as
belonging to "niroo-ye vijeh velayat, " or "ruler's special
forces" (NFI). He said this group was not particularly
aggressive and that their main purpose seemed to be deterrence:
they were lined up in rows to prevent entry into Enghelab
Square. He also witnessed members of this force arresting
people for throwing rocks at shop windows.



-He believed members of the third group, who were wearing dark
greens uniforms, belonged to the IRGC. He said they had a heavy
presence in both Azadi Square and Enghelab Square but seemed
primarily interested in crowd control rather than dispersing
groups of demonstrators.



-He said that the fourth group, the Basijis, outnumbered the
uniformed security forces by "ten to one. " While in civilian
attire, he said Basij members are identifiable by their untucked
shirts and were typically armed with clubs and batons. Some of
them were equipped with helmets as well.



-Our contacted noted that unlike the relatively peaceful
demonstrations during the week leading up to Ayatollah
Khamenei's Friday sermon, the regular police were nowhere to be
seen on Saturday.




2. (S) Former Majles Member Comments on Unrest: A member of the
6th and 7th Majles seeking a visa in Dubai views a new election
as the only solution to the unrest in Iran. He conceded that
such a step was unlikely, however, and does not anticipate
Khamenei or Mousavi to compromise. He expects the crisis to
drag on and noted that the current situation is unpredictable.
At the same time, he said that whereas the government forces
have weapons and resources, the demonstrators do not.
Commenting on the security forces, he believes the majority of
the IRGC is supportive of Khamenei but that the LEF is probably
torn between their loyalty to the government and their desire to
avoid harming their fellow Iranians, but he was unable to
provide examples to substantiate either observation. Regarding
the bazaar, he observed that some shops have been closed but
others, having been pressured by the government to remain open,
are hesitant to close. Comment: The former Majles member was
openly supportive of Mousavi but his comments did not seem

DUBAI 00000258 002.2 OF 002


particularly biased. Still, his views appear to be based on his
general sense of things; he had few specifics or details to
substantiate his assessments.




3. [C] Professor Challenges Notion of Broad Rural Support for
Ahmadinejad: A professor from Yasouj University, located in
Kohgiluyeh va Buyer Ahmad (KBA) province in southwestern Iran,
said he was shocked at Ahmadinejad's landslide victory. He
claimed to have spoken to many folks from all levels of society
before the election and Mousavi had much support. Ahmadinejad
did have supporters in small villages, which the professor
attributed to government control over the media and the
financial benefits Ahmadinejad had provided, but he still
claimed to have met many Mousavi backers in the same such
villages. Despite frustration with the outcome, he said there
had not been protests because it's a small city and everyone
knows each other. Comment: According to the Ministry of
Interior's election results, Ahmadinejad won KBA province with
nearly 70 percent of the vote and Mousavi was second with 27
percent. The professor said he was a Mousavi supporter.




4. [C] Khamenei's Friday Prayers a Turning Point for Some: A
young Tehrani in Dubai for a visa offered a less dramatic
account of the situation, claiming Tehran "is not that bad, " at
least not as bad as the Western media is portraying it. Aside
from a few pockets, things were normal; he was continuing to go
to work and live his life. He had participated in the peaceful
demonstrations last week but had stopped following the Supreme
Leader's Friday Prayer sermons. He said he expects a compromise
to end the standoff. Comment: This applicant's comments bode
poorly for the prospects of the opposition's challenge to the
status quo in Iran. He did not seem particularly aggrieved by
the election result, was persuaded by Khamenei to stop
protesting, and generally expected a positive outcome but was no
longer participating himself in the demonstrations. Anecdotal
information suggests that many of the protestors are far more
committed to their cause-and other contacts in Dubai are far
angrier-but whether the majority will stand and fight or simply
move on is an open question.




5. [C] Unrest Shaking Business Confidence; Strike Deemed
Unlikely in the Near Term: Iranian businessmen who have
traveled from Iran to Dubai this week described the recent
unrest as "painful, but manageable. " While there is no credible
measure yet of the economic impact of the election's aftermath,
the Tehran Stock Exchange has fallen steeply, both in value and
volume of trade, indicating that investor confidence is shaken.
One business contact said that the working mood in Tehran is
"grim" and described how he has temporarily closed his factory
out of concern for the security of his employees. He said he is
still filling orders but warning of possible disruptions in
deliveries. He also stated that he is holding onto cash given
the climate of uncertainty. IRPO contacts tell us that as of
June 22 there were no indications of hoarding of goods or
disruptions to government services in Tehran. Most retail
stores, distribution networks, gas stations, and the postal
service in Tehran appear to be operating as normal.
MCGOWAN