Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09RPODUBAI232
2009-06-03 13:23:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Iran RPO Dubai
Cable title:  

IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JUNE

Tags:  PREL PGOV IR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9373
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDIR #0232/01 1541323
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 031323Z JUN 09
FM RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0420
INFO RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 0343
RUEHDIR/RPO DUBAI 0421
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000232 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/3/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JUNE
3, 2009

DUBAI 00000232 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000232

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/3/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JUNE
3, 2009

DUBAI 00000232 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (S/NF) Rivals Eroding AN's Purportedly Solid Base of
Support: After discussing election developments with a broad
range of contacts, it appears that in combination, AN's three
rivals can strip him of a substantial number of votes from his
base. A few of this week's entries refer to this situation, and
we have attached a graphic to highlight this trend.




2. (S/NF) Reformist Election as Proxy Battle Between Khamenei
and Rafsanjani: IRPO officers met on June 1 and 2 with a
reformist former Khatami campaign official (and son of Khatami's
former vice president) and a Rezai supporter to discuss the
election. The reformist portrayed the election, as numerous
other contacts have, as a proxy showdown between Supreme Leader
Khamenei and Expediency Council Chair Hashemi Rafsanjani. He
noted that Rafsanjani was either directly or indirectly funding
all three of Ahmadinejad's challengers. He argued that,
possibly based upon a strategy devised by Rafsanjani,
Ahmadinejad's rivals have combined to erode his base of support.
Karroubi, Mousavi, and Rezai all target key constituencies
thought to represent a solid AN voting block (the rural poor,
the IRGC and Basij, Leftists, traditional religious citizens,
financial opportunists). Comment: Public comments from
Ahmadinejad insiders appear to support the idea that this race
is in some ways a reprise of the 2005 second round contest
between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad campaign
manager Samareh-Hashemi was recently quoted as complaining that
the President was not running against Karroubi, Mousavi and
Rezai, but rather "Hashemi, Hashemi, and Hashemi. " (Note:
Hashemi refers to Expediency Council head Rafsanjani.)




3. (S/NF) Rezai Insider Outlines the Candidate's Determination
to Stay in Race: A former IRGC General and close associate of
presidential candidate Mohsen Rezai said that the IRGC
co-founder is determined to stay in the race, and will not
withdraw shortly before the election as he did in 2005.
According to the contact, Rezai is seriously aiming to win the

election and believes his candidacy is viable. Second, he
believes that even if he does not ultimately prevail, he will
take a substantial number of votes from Ahmadinejad, primarily
from his conservative base. Lastly, and perhaps most
significantly, the contact said Rezai believes that his
participation as a candidate will help contain IRGC and
Basij-driven election fraud. As another contact pointed out in
a discussion of the likelihood of malfeasance, there are
currently 95,000 Basij bases in Iran, each staffed with an
average of 25 Basijis, amounting to a significant pool of
potentially fraudulent voters.




4. (S/NF) Former Guardians Council Member: AN Will Win if Top
Rival Gets Less than Five Million More Votes: In a June 3
meeting with IRPO, a former Guardians Council member explained
that Khamenei preferred a president who would be his "servant,"
and AN fit that description. The other three candidates, he
noted, came up with Khamenei and are heavyweights in their own
right. For this reason, he was advancing his preference for AN.
This contact recounted that Khamenei had told a recent meeting
of the Assembly of Experts that AN was best for the health of
the country. He reported that a number of the Assembly members
- the only body constitutionally empowered to remove the leader
- got up and walked out at this statement. As IRPO has reported
earlier, Khamenei has given AN virtually unlimited financial
backing. The former GC member told us, as many contacts have,
that five million blank identity documents are ready to help
sway the election outcome to AN. So, he concluded, if someone
is going to defeat AN, they will have to do it by more than the
five million vote "margin of fraud. "




5. (S/NF) Rezai Supporter Outlines the Importance of the
Debates: According to the former IRGC general referenced above,
the debates will be very important, because just as is in the
US, many average people would make their voting decision based
upon candidate performances in debates. It was one thing, he
continued, for a candidate to present his positions in a speech
or in an interview, but in a debate he had to defend his record
and his campaign positions against a rival's attacks.

This observer, who as noted is in regular touch with Rezai, as

DUBAI 00000232 002.2 OF 002


well as indirectly with the other campaigns, considered
Rezai-Ahmadinejad, scheduled for 9:15 pm on June 9th, the most
important debate. He thought because of AN's vociferous and
confrontational style, AN would probably get the better of the
urbane Mousavi in their debate. He noted that AN's main
weakness in the debates was having to defend his track record as
president.




6. (S/NF) As for AN -Karroubi, he thought Karroubi could do a
much better job standing up to AN. Moreover, Karroubi's
clerical credentials went far with the types of rural
constituencies AN hoped to dominate. This former general
described Karroubi as a lobbyer and a conciliator, who was adept
at bringing disparate groups into consensus. Nonetheless, he
noted that rumors continue to plague Karroubi about his
"corrupt" activities while head of the Bonyad-e Shahid (Martyr's
Foundation). He explained that this corrupt activity consisted
of Karroubi taking 160 war martyr's wives as sighehs (temporary
marriage),which many find a highly objectionable misuse of
public office.




7. (S/NF) On the Rezai-AN debate, he said Rezai was forceful
enough a speaker and thinker to "break" AN in the debate format.
Given AN's many failings, which Rezai's website Tabnak
(formerly Baztab) have highlighted in detail for the last few
years, Rezai may be able to greatly embarrass AN. In Rezai's
view, AN's misguided foreign and economic policies and reckless
rhetoric have damaged Iran's global standing and are ruining the
Islamic Republic. If Rezai can score a knockout in this debate
so close to the election, he could swing many votes away from
AN. Meanwhile, Rezai's only apparent vulnerability is his son's
defection to the U.S. and subsequent misadventures. This Rezai
confidante felt his candidate could easily counter this attack
if AN tried to pursue it.




8. (S/NF) Ahmadinejad Feeling the Heat on Economy?: An Iranian
consultant in the oil and gas sector offered his opinion that
Ahmadinejad is taking desperate measures to paint his presidency
as good for the economy. The consultant pointed to the
convenient disbursal of $20,000 to Majles deputies and reported
payments to nurses and civil servants, that have drawn criticism
from Hassan Rowhani and Mehdi Karroubi, as well as Ahmadinejad's
claim that his critics are liars. The president's renewed focus
on corruption also suggest he is concerned that his opponents
focus on rising inflation and unemployment may resonate with the
public. Our contact also observed that Mehdi Karroubi's promise
to pay dividends in oil revenues and increase if along with oil
prices has worried Ahmadinejad. On the other hand, while Iran's
Judiciary has warned Ahmadinejad from exposing economic
criminals that have not been indicted by the Judiciary, this
could allow Ahmadinejad to paint himself as the victim in a
struggle against Iran's elite.



9.(C/NF) Similarities Abound, But Oil Revenue Separates
Candidates: A review of Mehdi Karrubi's, Mir Hossein Mousavi's,
and Mohsen Rezai's economic platforms reveals that the strongest
disagreement between the candidates is the mechanism by which
they would distribute oil revenues among the population. Mousavi
and Rezai support depositing at least a portion of Iran's oil
revenues into a National Development Fund as the catalyst for
capital investment. Both candidates also lean heavily towards
investing in the private sector as the only means to attract
foreign investors and achieve growth. Karrubi maintains that he
too supports the private sector, but continues to focus on
giving shares of oil revenues directly to Iranians, a move both
Rezai and Mousavi have criticized.
ASGARD