Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09RPODUBAI218
2009-05-20 13:34:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Iran RPO Dubai
Cable title:  

IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - MAY

Tags:  PREL PGOV ECON 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9014
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDIR #0218/01 1401334
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 201334Z MAY 09
FM RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0416
INFO RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 0339
RUEHDIR/RPO DUBAI 0417
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000218 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - MAY
20, 2009

DUBAI 00000218 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000218

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - MAY
20, 2009

DUBAI 00000218 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (SBU) Candidate Snapshot of the Iranian Presidential
Election: The Ministry of Interior today announced the Guardians
Council-approved final candidate list. As expected, the four
leading candidates - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hosein Mousavi,
Mehdi Karrubi, and Mohsen Reza'i - are the only sanctioned
contenders for the June 12 election. An election scenesetter is
being sent septel.




2. (S/NF) Saberi, the US and AN's Election Prospects: An IRPO
contact with direct access to IRIG officials told us May 16 that
President Ahmadinejad had been directly responsible for the
release of Roxanna Saberi. Our source then implied a linkage
between Saberi's release and hoped-for U.S. "actions" toward
engagement with Iran before the election that might boost
Ahmadinejad's re-election. Ahmadinejad, he argued, was
committed to engaging the United States, and the best candidate
for the success of any rapprochement and for Iran in general.
Our contact acknowledged that his re-election prospects,
however, were at best 50-50, and likely worse. Leaving aside
the presidential election, our contact said that Supreme Leader
Khamenei and his advisers are moving toward a policy of
engagement. He maintained that Khamenei, during his tour of
Kordestan, had demonstrably toned down direct criticism of the
United States and that it was indicative of the change in
Supreme Leader's thinking. Comment: Our contact did not dwell
on Saberi and AN's election and only raised it in passing. We
doubt he raised it at the behest of the AN campaign, but it is
possibly further evidence that Ahmadinejad is hoping for a
breakthrough with the US to improve his chances for re-election.





3. (S/NF) Iran's Third GSM License May Be Retendered: According
to an IRPO business contact with regular access to senior
Iranian commercial circles, the recent withdrawal of the UAE's
telecomm giant Etisalat (additional reporting septel),and
substitution with Kuwait's Zain, as recipients of Iran's third

GSM license may be a harbinger of even greater shakeups to come.
This source noted that the chair of the Iran Arab Cooperation
Board [NFN Husaini] traveled to Oman this past week to explore
whether OmanTel, Oman's telecomm carrier, had sufficient
interest in the GSM license to warrant possible retendering.
Further, he passed along that the Iranians are willing to
consider bringing in a US telecomm firm as Omantel's partner.
Comment: As with many such tenders in this region, this huge
contract has become heavily politicized. With billions at
stake, Iran appears to be shopping this lucrative license among
various regional players and weighing various foreign policy
benefits in the process. The suggested addition of a US
carrier, if this can be verified, may bring the politicization
of this deal to a qualitatively higher level.




4. (S/NF) Evidence of Supreme Leader-Mousavi Reconciliation?: An
IRPO business contact with connections to the Mousavi campaign
recounted to IRPO Officers a recent Supreme Leader visit to Mir
Hossein Mousavi's home, a story that has also circulated on the
internet. Mousavi's elderly father was gravely ill, and the SL
reportedly spent two hours alone with Mousavi on the occasion.
Contact pointed out that this visit is being considered as a
show of great respect to Mousavi, and that we should not presume
that the reported twenty-year old feud between the SL and
Mousavi still embittered their relationship.




5. (S/NF) State Media Outlets Seek Help in Establishing U.S.
Presence: An Iranian journalist working for a Western news
service told us that he recently was approached by Iranian
officials seeking help in getting accreditation for IRIB and
Fars News Agency to place reporters in the U.S. The IRIG
official told our contact that a request had been denied by the
Department. Our contact said that he suspected the timing of
the Iranian request was tied to accreditation of Western
journalists covering the Iranian election. Comment: We have
heard no complaints from any Western press contacts here that
visas or accreditation requests have been denied. IRNA reported
about 190 foreign correspondents have applied to cover the
presidential elections in Iran.




DUBAI 00000218 002.2 OF 003



6. (S/NF) Iranian Film Director on the Iranian Film Scene: A
renowned Iranian film director told us that the Ministry of
Culture is Iran is "anti-culture" and was one more frustration
that Iranians had to contend with under Ahmadinejad. He said
the Ministry will give film makers permission to begin shooting
a film but often will deny permission to show it in Iran. This
arbitrary treatment has left many directors of films deemed too
sensitive for Iranians with no outlet other than foreign film
festivals. The director said Iranian film makers and actors are
publicly critical of the IRIG at these festivals, and he was
unaware of any being punished for it when they return. Iranian
officials have become increasingly accepting of satellite
broadcasts and even show American movies on IRIB, he said, in
large part because they recognize that movies and television
shows produced for propaganda have little influence among the
Iranian public. Comment: Our contact was highly critical of
Ahmadinejad and told us he was working with Mir Hossein
Mousavi's campaign, but he also had little expectation that a
Mousavi victory would bring about real change as long as the
Supreme Leader was in place.




7. (C) Women's Professional Soccer Broadcast into Iran: The Los
Angeles-based satellite channel Iran TV (also known as ITN)
began broadcasting women's professional soccer matches into Iran
three weeks ago. The games, which are played between teams
belonging to the newly-created Women's Professional Soccer (WPS)
league, are aired weekly on Wednesday evenings during prime
television hours. According to the producer, the broadcasts
have drawn a tremendous response from viewers inside Iran, who
are especially appreciative of the fact that the commentators, a
man and women, are native Farsi speakers. The producer said
that during the fifteen-minutes live call-in period following
each match, viewers from Iran (and a few from Afghanistan) have
"inundated" the channel's phone lines with overwhelmingly
positive comments from both men and women. The broadcasts will
continue through the end of the season in late August. Comment:
Soccer is wildly popular in Iran and became a hot button gender
issue in 2006 when Ahmadinejad attempted to relax the
prohibition against women attending matches, only to be reversed
by the Supreme Leader, who sided with clerics concerned about
the affect viewing men in shorts could have on women's morality.




8. (S/NF) Farsi One TV Set to Debut in Late June: In discussions
with Farsi TV executives (joint venture which includes StarTV, a
NewsCorp subsidiary),IRPO learned that this entertainment
channel featuring American programming dubbed in Fars) in late
June. Comment: Given the availability of Fox television
programming, IRPO is urging Farsi One to reconsider its decision
not to run the Simpsons.




9. (S/NF) Tehran Stock Exchange Striving to Meet International
Standards: The Iranian manager of a medium-sized private equity
fund that invests in the Tehran Stock Exchange described
significant improvements in the quality of the bourse's
management in the three years since his fund was established.
He observed that the TSE was the only positively performing
bourse in the world in 2008 and is much more dynamic exchange
that commonly understood outside of Iran. He said that
government-affiliated funds, such as the national pension fund,
make up sixty percent of the market. While the TSE remains
badly over-regulated and at $50 billion is still very small, in
his opinion the situation has improved dramatically in recent
years. While still not meeting international operating
standards, it is making progress: he said the TSE is now
"legitimately" private, and that in an effort to improve
transparency (and thus attract increased investment),companies
listed on the bourse compelled to publish quarterly reports
substantiated by accounting firm that have been pre-approved by
TSE management. The fund manager noted that the regulation
compelling investors to keep their money inside Iran for a
minimum of three years remains a major obstacle to attracting
foreign investment, and that the two percent foreign ownership
figure officially cited by the TSE is likely untrue.
Bureaucracy and over-regulation still hamper the TSE, but he
said he has not encountered any overt corruption there. When
asked about the profitability of investing in the TSE, he
answered with a broad smile and predicted it would only improve
because the fundamentals of the Iranian economy, in particular
the famous youth bulge, will not change. He described the
banking sector as the easiest place to make money right now in

DUBAI 00000218 003.2 OF 003


Iran.
ASGARD