SAUDI MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS MADANI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIYADH 000962

SIPDIS

S/SRAP - KAREN HANRAHAN, SCA/A - ARIELLA VIEHE, AND EUR/RPM
-
AARON COPE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SA SY LE AF PK IR XF
SUBJECT: SAUDI MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS MADANI
DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES

REF: A. SECSTATE 71829

B. SECSTATE 71850

C. SECSTATE 74362

Classified By: CHARGE AMBASSADOR RICHARD ERDMAN, REASONS 1.4 (B) & (D)

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
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1. (C) During a July 20 meeting Saudi Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs Nizar Madani accepted Charge's
congratulations on his appointment by the King to another
4-year term; praised President Obama's efforts on the Middle
East and the recent meeting with the Quartet in Trieste; and
focused on the negatives in Netanyahu's recent speech, noting
the Palestinian state he envisioned was a "ghost state."
Consistent with the current Saudi policy of speaking
positively about U.S. peace efforts but doing little or
nothing concrete to assist them, he described the current
situation as "an historic opportunity" that "we can't miss."
In contrast to his pessimism on prospects for Palestinian
reconciliation, Madani expressed cautious optimism that Saad
Hariri would be able to form a government and confirmed Saudi
relations with Syria were improving but dependent on Syrian
good behavior. On Iran, Madani said it was not yet clear
whether the current unrest was a "tempest in a teapot" or a
prelude to a 1979-type upheaval, while noting that prolonged
instability in Iran was not in the long-term interest of the
Kingdom. Citing the case of a U.S.-educated, former Deputy
Finance Minister and Shoura Council member, Madani complained
about serious delays his friend was experiencing in getting a
visa. His complaint is a reminder of the degree to which
even the highest level Saudi officials are preoccupied with
the question of U.S. visas, where a dysfunctional security
advisory process, in particular, causes unconscionable delays
and negatively impacts bilateral relationships. End Summary.


QUARTET MEETING IN TRIESTE "USEFUL"
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2. (C) Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr. Nizar
Madani characterized the recent G-8 Quartet meeting in
Trieste with Arab Foreign Ministers as "useful," adding that
it "came at the right time," i.e. on the heels of the Arab
Foreign Ministers' meeting in Cairo. The Arab FMs, he
commented, had come to Trieste with an "optimistic" outlook,
and the ideas presented by Special Envoy Mitchell, Tony
Blair, and the European delegations created an "encouraging"
atmosphere. Nonetheless, the Saudis were still waiting for
concrete action and Netanyahu's recent speech had been
received negatively, as an example of "disappointing" Israeli
behavior that dampened Arab hopes.


3. (C) Charge (Ambassador Erdman) responded that Netanyahu's
speech had contained both positive and negative elements, and
it was important to distinguish between negotiating
preconditions and negotiating objectives. The negative
elements were largely negotiating objectives, which obviously
could only be achieved with the agreement of the Palestinian
side. Charge then reviewed the positive elements of
Netanyahu's speech, noting they had created an area of common
ground we should build on. While acknowledging Netanyahu's
apparent acceptance of the two-state principle, Madani
countered that Netanyahu's Palestinian state was a "ghost"
state, not a real one. He also questioned the current
Israeli government's commitment to finding a solution, noting
Netanyahu's hard-line comments on Jerusalem the previous day.


4. (C) Charge noted that Israel was a vibrant democracy
whose leaders ultimately had to respond to the wishes of the
Israeli people. In this context, it was important for Arabs
to send a clear, consistent message, through statements and
concrete gestures, concerning their desire for peace. This
would mobilize Israel's various peace constituencies and put
pressure on Israel's leaders to take steps to advance peace.
Everyone, including our Arab friends, had a responsibility to
take steps to create a positive atmosphere for negotiations.
Charge stressed that as the President told the King, we
needed help. We couldn't do this ourselves.



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MIDDLE EAST PEACE: YES, WE CAN,
BUT PLEASE WORK ON THE ISRAELIS
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5. (C) Madani said that the Arab countries were ready for
peace "more than at any time in the past." The current
situation, he said, was "an historic opportunity" that we
"can't miss." He praised President Obama's decision to focus
on the issue early in his tenure, adding that whatever
progress could be made "must happen in the beginning" since
later in his term "things won't be as solid as they are now."
He expressed confidence in President Obama's "will to enter
history" as a facilitator of Middle East peace. "We are
ready," he said, "you will find all the support you can from
Saudi Arabia. Now work on the other side." He added, "What
is it your President says? Yes we can!"


...IF ONLY THE PALESTINIANS CAN WORK THINGS OUT
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6. (C) Despite his upbeat remarks, Madani acknowledged that
starting negotiations while the Palestinian side remained
divided would be "unhelpful," and that it was incumbent upon
the Arabs to present a united front. He expressed
disappointment with the postponement of the next round of
Palestinian reconciliation talks to late August; dodged a
question as to whether Syria was being helpful vis-a-vis
Hamas; and said the Saudis were "relying on the Egyptians" to
pursue Palestinian reconciliation. Asked about a scenario
where the PA might negotiate a deal on its own, thereby
putting pressure on Hamas to accept such a deal, he said "we
prefer to focus on reconciliation." Internal Palestinian
divisions were a point of critical weakness, and
reconciliation remained difficult because in the end it came
down to willingness to give up power. Regarding the Fatah
6th Party Congress scheduled for early August, Charge noted
that the U.S. strongly supported Fatah's reform efforts and
hoped that these would help renew and rebuild Fatah's
credibility, legitimacy, and confidence in the eyes of the
Palestinian public (Reftel A).


HARIRI'S PROSPECTS ARE PROMISING
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7. (C) Madani, who is not a key Saudi player on this issue,
said the Saudis were "optimistic" regarding Lebanese
PM-designate Saad Hariri's prospects for forming a
government. They expected the new government to be one of
"national conciliation" rather than technocrats, and Syria
should be discouraged from meddling in Lebanese government
formation. The King's planned visit to Syria had been
postponed for precisely that reason, in order to signal Syria
that rapprochement with the Kingdom could not advance unless
Syria refrained from unhelpful meddling. Charge said we
strongly believed there should be no visit to Damascus by
Hariri until after both government formation and a vote of
confidence. In this regard, it was important, in addition,
that we give Hariri time to work out his own solution so that
he is empowered over the longer term as Prime Minister. In
response to Charge's request that the Saudi's consider
additional funding to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF),Madani
agreed that building the LAF's capacity was key to Lebanese
security and counter-balancing Hizballah, and promised to
look into the possibility of funding the purchase and
transfer from Jordan of the U.S.-built M60A3 tanks (Reftel B).


SYRIA: SO FAR SO GOOD
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8. (C) Regarding Saudi-Syrian rapprochement, Madani said
relations were steadily improving and there were improvements
in Syrian behavior compared to a year ago. (He did not cite
any specific examples of this improvement.) Although
Saudi-Syrian relations were better, they (the Saudis) could
not directly or comfortably discuss sensitive issues such as
Syrian support for Hizballah at this point. "Syria-Iran
relations can't change overnight," he said, while Syria could
encourage Iran to avoid interfering in Arab problems.


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IRAN: NOT YET CLEAR IF IRAN IS IN A PRE-1979 SITUATION
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9. (C) Asked about the situation in Iran, Madani said there
were two schools of thought. According to one school, the
current post-election unrest was an "important development"
that would lead to "important results," possibly signaling
the beginning of radical change. Initial skepticism about
events in 1979 was proof this theory should not be completely
discounted. According to the second school, Madani
continued, it was a "tempest in a teapot," and the feuding
groups could settle their differences without harming the
overall stability of the regime. While anticipating some
lasting effect, he said that the extent of any changes
remained unclear. "There are new developments every day, so
it won't take long" to determine where things were headed.
Madani added that while Saudi Arabia did not like the current
regime in Iran, instability there was not in the long-term
interest of Saudi Arabia.


AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN: YOU CAN COUNT ON US, SORT OF
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10. (C) Per Reftel C, Charge stressed the importance of
continued international support for Afghanistan, both in the
period leading up to and after the August 20 Presidential
elections. Madani expressed strong satisfaction with the
joint statement from the recent Support Group meeting in
Trieste and said that Saudi Arabia would continue to
participate in further meetings of the Group. On Pakistan,
Charge noted the USG's significant contributions to aiding
Pakistani IDPs, totaling approximately two-thirds of the
international call, adding that the U.S. hoped its friends
would also do their share to support the effort. Madani was
non-committal regarding further Saudi aid to Pakistan.


VISAS: GOOD EFFORT, BUT WE STILL HAVE CONCERNS
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11. (C) After praising the overall positive nature of
U.S.-Saudi bilateral relations, Madani expressed concern over
the length and complexity of the U.S. visa process. He said
his friend, a former Deputy Finance Minister and Shoura
council member with a Ph.D. from the U.S., had been waiting
"more than two months" for a visa decision. Charge said we
understood Saudi concerns and were taking steps to accelerate
the visa issue process and expand visa services, while noting
that there was more we needed to do. Madani welcomed these
steps but strongly urged continued U.S. attention to Saudi
visa issues.

ERDMAN