COURTSHIP OF SAUDIS PAYING DIVIDENDS FOR SUDAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 000568

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP, AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ICC SA SU
SUBJECT: COURTSHIP OF SAUDIS PAYING DIVIDENDS FOR SUDAN

REF: A. RIYADH 789

B. RIYADH 456

C. NDJAMENA 102

Classified By: CDA David Rundell for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) KEY POINTS

-- A recent diplomatic offensive in Riyadh by the Sudanese
now yields benefits in public and private support.

-- Saudi officials publicly greeted President Omar al-Bashir
April 1 as he made a single day Umrah pilgrimage to Saudi
Arabia, lending an air of official weight to an otherwise
religious visit.

-- Reportedly, Sudan has secured aid commitments from sources
within Saudi Arabia, making up for the March NGO expulsion.


2. (C) COMMENT:

-- STABILITY, STABILITY, STABILITY: The Saudis' interest in
Sudan is pragmatic, as instability in Sudan can lead to
instability at home. First, the Saudis invest in Sudan not
just for financial gain, but as a strategic path to future
food security. Second, over one million Sudanese live in the
Kingdom, and some Saudis trace their ancestry to Sudan. The
Saudi government is unlikely to risk antagonizing this large
constituency which adamantly supports President Bashir and
vehemently opposes the ICC warrant.

-- DONATION CONFIDENTIAL: The Saudis hold closely the
amounts of assistance they provide to other countries. In a
notable exception, the SAG publicly announced aid to Gaza
Palestinians in the face of public outrage, although this was
portrayed as a donation from individual royals. Many Saudis
criticize foreign aid and believe the money could be better
spent at home. Aid to Sudan would likely flow through the
Saudi Red Crescent, or possibly other mechanisms such as the
Organization of the Islamic Conference or Islamic Development
Bank. However, the exact figures will likely remain secret.

-- THE MISBAHA ONLY HAS 99 BEADS: An execution of the ICC
arrest warrant would likely elicit vocal opposition from the
Saudis. They view themselves as already surrounded by
diplomatic headaches, a list to which Sudan only adds.
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Palestine, Iraq and Yemen require the
SAG's full attention, not to mention the Iran-Syria-Lebanon
nexus. Volatility among Bahrain's Shi'a literally hits close
to home. The Saudis would likely welcome any development
that stabilizes Sudan and subtracts it from their list of
concerns.

END KEY POINTS AND COMMENT


3. (C) SUMMARY: Since the March 4 announcement of the ICC
arrest warrant, the Sudanese have dramatically increased
their presence in front of high-ranking Saudis. Sudanese
Presidential Advisor Dr. Mustafa Othman Ismael landed in
Riyadh around March 7, staying for over a week and meeting
with Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal (Ref B). Soon after,
Vice President Ali Othman Taha and State Minister for Foreign
Affairs Ali Karti visited Riyadh, calling on King Abdallah.
The payoff has come in three forms: public support, private
assurances of increased aid, and the hosting of Bashir for
the Umrah pilgrimage.

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SEEKING, AND GETTING, SUPPORT
--------------


4. (SBU) BASHIR LANDS IN SAUDI: In a brief yet significant
April 1 visit, Bashir traveled directly from Doha to Jeddah,
continuing to Mecca where he performed the Umrah pilgrimage.
The SAG did not announce his visit in advance. However,
several mid-ranking Saudi officials greeted Bashir during his
trip. Jeddah mayor Prince Misha'al bin Majed bin Abdalaziz
met Bashir as he landed in Jeddah, with photos of the pair

RIYADH 00000568 002 OF 002


appearing in local papers. Saudi Press Agency released a
short statement from Mecca, noting but not naming the "number
of senior officials" who received Bashir at the city's Holy
Mosque.


5. (C) ASSISTANCE INCREASE: Scattered reports have indicated
that the Saudis are increasing assistance to Sudan and
Darfur, though the Saudis themselves have not announced any
increase. Sporadic reports have come from Sudanese press
sources, including one unattributed (and unlikely) claim that
investment projects worth US $4 billion are under review by
Sudan's Jeddah Consulate (Sudanese Media Center, April 9).
The following local reports provide more reliable detail:

-- March 24 Jeddah-based Okaz newspaper published an
interview with Sudanese Interior Minister Ibrahim Mahmoud
Hamid where he stated that a high-level Saudi security
delegation would visit Khartoum in April, in a revival of
agreements signed in 2005. He added that Saudi Interior
Minister Prince Nayef approved the visit which would focus on
terrorism, organized crime and money laundering.

-- April 3 the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC)
announced a plan to increase aid to Darfur, according to a
press report covering a conference of OIC aid ministers in
Libya.

-- April 10 the Saudi Press Agency announced that the
Jeddah-based Islamic Development Bank approved $12.6 million
to finance a water harvesting project and another $19.5
million for a cotton project.


6. (S/NF) CONFIRMATION: A Riyadh-based Egyptian diplomat
confirmed the increase in aid, but not the specifics. The
diplomat cited a message from the Egyptian Embassy in
Khartoum which stated that two unnamed organizations from
within Saudi Arabia had agreed to provide humanitarian
assistance. The diplomat added that Cairo had also asked the
Saudis to increase aid, reading directly from a document
carrying this message.

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MORE VIEWS ON SUDAN
--------------


7. (C) DQ RALLY: The night of March 5, the day after the
ICC announcement, a large group of enthusiastic Sudanese
congregated at their Riyadh Embassy, just steps from the U.S.
Embassy. The raucous gathering came as close to a
demonstration as one sees in Saudi Arabia, and speakers could
be heard across the Diplomatic Quarter (DQ). In a rare move,
police allowed a large number of Sudanese onto the DQ and
stood by during their "rally." A British diplomat attempted
to enter and observe, but police turned him away.


8. (S/NF) AND OF COURSE, IRAN: In late February, a Sudanese
diplomat shared that Sudan fully backed the Saudis in the
face of a growing threat from Iran. He said his government
feared Iran's growing presence, explaining how there were no
Shi'a in his country twenty years ago - but you can find them
today. He also noted Saudi Arabia's many investments in
Sudan, pointing out food security as a key issue.


9. (S) VIEW FROM THE CHADIAN EMBASSY: The Charge d'Affaires
of Riyadh's Chadian Embassy declined to delve into the
Saudi-Sudan fray in a recent meeting. The Chadian CDA, Dr.
Tahir Annadif Khatir (protect),ducked a query about the
Saudi Ambassador to Chad (Ref C). Discussing Saudi aid, he
doubtfully asked if the Saudis would contribute more to
Darfur. On the Doha process, he expressed comfort in
(Justice and Equality Movement leader) Dr. Khalil Ibrahim's
ability to represent rebel factions, and commended the USG
designation of a special envoy for Sudan. He emphasized his
government's principle goal of repatriating the 200,000
Sudanese refugees currently in eastern Chad.

RUNDELL