REQUEST FOR INPUT ON STRATEGY TO INTEGRATE IRAQ

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIYADH 000436

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SA
SUBJECT: REQUEST FOR INPUT ON STRATEGY TO INTEGRATE IRAQ
INTO REGION

REF: A. SECSTATE 21447

B. BAGHDAD 630

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR LISA M. CARLE,
Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (c) This message provides answers to questions posed in
ref a, soliciting input on strategy to integrate Iraq into
the region. Input is keyed to topics listed in ref a para 5.


2. KEY POINTS:

-- (C) While the Saudis have been reluctant to engage with
the Al-Maliki government, their views are evolving as the
political/security situation stabilizes.

-- (C) Saudi reluctance to engage can be ultimately overcome
by addressing their key concerns, i.e., demonstrating that:
Sunni factions are successfully being integrated into the
domestic political process; the Al-Maliki government is
acting independently of Iran; and the security situation has
improved sufficiently to allow a Saudi envoy to function
without undue fear of being targeted by terrorists.

-- (C) The Saudis are supportive of the neighbors' process,
which they see as a vehicle that can also isolate Iran.


3. (C) CURRENT STATUS OF RELATIONS WITH IRAQ: Saudi Arabia
continues to drag its feet on engagement with the Al-Maliki
government, forgiving Iraqi debts, and sending an ambassador
to Baghdad. The SAG seeks to maintain Iraq's unity, its Arab
identity, and its sovereignty. It wants an independent Iraq
free of Iranian influence. Key Saudi priorities include
continuing the integration of "all Iraqis" (i.e., Sunnis)
into the new political system, and bilateral cooperation on
security and counter-terrorism issues.


4. (C) OBSTACLES TO IMPROVING RELATIONS: Like other Arab
states, the SAG is deeply concerned about Iran's influence in
Iraq's internal affairs and on the disenfranchisement of
Iraqi Sunnis. Both the King and Foreign Minister have
publicly stated their belief that the US invasion of Iraq
resulted in a shift of the regional balance of power in
Iran's favor. The King and other key officials deeply
mistrust Al-Maliki, whom they view as having facilitated the
expansion of Iranian influence in the region. In addition,
the Saudi relationship with the Maliki government has been
strained, say MFA officials, because he presented a blue
print for integration of the Sunni factions into the
government and then didn't live up to it.


5. (C) A senior MFA official observed that the recent
elections appear to have strengthened Al-Maliki, improving
his ability to govern, and implying that a continuation of
this trend would improve Saudi willingness to broaden its
engagement. The same official told a Canadian colleague that
the SAG was "pleased" by the outcome of the Iraqi elections.
Most particularly they were happy to see the ISCI lose
influence. As a result the SAG had decided to "review its
options" with respect to Iraq with a view to containing
Iranian influence. This would apparently include
consideration of reconstruction assistance. Despite this,
the SAG is still not/not prepared to set a date to send an
Ambassador.


6. (C) EXISTING INITIATIVES: Asked about Saudi willingness
to participate in regional initiatives, MFA Director of
Western Affairs Ra'ed Grimly did not answer directly.
Instead, he observed that the "Neighbors Process" was
launched to underscore the concept of non-interference in
Iraqi affairs. Iran, he asserted, has not yet "grasped" this
concept. Syrian behavior, however, is much improved. The
current Saudi efforts to achieve a reconciliation on the
Saudi/Egyptian/Syrian/Jordanian front would improve regional
integration of Iraq. In a conversation with the Ambassador,
Saud Al-Faisal suggested that the Neighbors Process would be
a useful vehicle for isolating the Iranians, so long as the
others were united. We understand from our French colleagues
that this subject was discussed during Turkish President
Gul's recent visit to the Kingdom, with the Saudis pressing
the Turks to play a stronger regional coordination role.


7. (C) OPENNESS TO PARTICIPATING IN NEW FORUMS: Limited.
Saudis see themselves as already playing a major role in
existing forums. Given their limited institutional capacity
for sustained engagement in any initiatives, and their likely
skepticism regarding the utility of any additional
mechanisms, they are not likely to be enthusiastic about new
forums.
FRAKER