LATVIAN POLITICAL BATTLELINES: A FOUR-WAY FIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000564

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL LV
SUBJECT: LATVIAN POLITICAL BATTLELINES: A FOUR-WAY FIGHT

REF: RIGA 533

Classified By: DCM BRUCE ROGERS, REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: As the Latvian budget winds through debate
and negotiation with the IMF, political coalitions are
firming up in advance of the October 2010 parliamentary
elections. Three centrist parties of the governing coalition
are forming a common front, under the banner of the name
"Unity." The powerful vice-mayor of Riga, Ainars Slesers has
assumed full control of a two-party combination (Latvia's
First Party/Latvia's Way),now formally allied with the
largely ethnic-Russian Harmony Center. Three-time Prime
Minister Andris Skele has also taken full control of the
increasingly populist People's Party, criticizing the ruling
coalition while remaining the largest party inside the
government. The Greens and Farmers Union of Aivars Lembergs,
currently on an extended trial for corruption, also remains
in government, laying low while growing in relative
popularity.

"Unity"
--------------


2. (C) The New Era party of Prime Minister Dombrovskis (15 of
100 seats in Parliament),the Civic Union (6 MPs) and the
Society for Alternative Politics (3 MPs) announced on
November 19 that they would campaign on a joint electoral
list in the 2010 elections under the banner "Unity", while
forgoing a full party merger. Unity leadership have told us
that the coalition will campaign on a platform of
responsible, transparent government and a firmly Atlanticist
foreign policy. Unfortunately for this new coalition,
Unity's ambitions likely outweigh their prospects. Of those
declaring party preference in October polls (half of those
polled),about 26% named one of the three component parties;
however, of all those polled, only seven percent said they
would definitely vote for a common list of the three parties
and another seven percent said they would consider voting for
a common list. Clearly, if Unity wishes to form the next
government, they will need allies.

Looking East
--------------


3. (C) The hard-charging Christian fundamentalist Ainars
Slesers abandoned any pretense of power-sharing when he
shunted aside former Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis for full
control of the Latvia's First Party/Latvia's Way (10 MPs) on
November 14. Slesers sees Latvia's future in a rebalance of
relations with Russia and in attracting Russian investments,
trade and tourism. In addition to furthering his own
economic interests, this stance is popular with his city
council allies, the largely-ethnic Russian left-wing
coalition Harmony Center. Slesers adopts a stern and
uncompromising public persona, and while his partnership with
ethnic Russians is anathema to Latvian nationalists, dire
economic circumstances, the backing of Latvia's Lutheran,
Catholic and Orthodox churches, and a mighty campaign war
chest (Slesers possesses great personal wealth) will all
assist him. About seven percent of voters declaring a
preference say they will vote for Slesers, and another 27
percent (mostly ethnic Russians, Ukrainians and Belarussians)
will support Harmony Center. Slesers has now made public his
desire to form a national government with Harmony Center
support.

Grizzled, Cranky and Ready to Lead
--------------


4. (C) Another gruff and "can-do" multi-millionaire, People's
Party founder Andris Skele, formally re-assumed control of
his party on November 21. The party suffers from low
popularity ratings and is facing a bleak future; Skele
believes that only he can reverse it's downward spiral.
Despite the fact that the party is the largest in the
governing coalition (19 seats),Skele's strategy is to
criticize the government from within while the campaign
continues. Skele promiss low taxes, microenterprise loans,
a balanced budget, better public administration, and
infrastructure investment, while criticizing the IMF and
Scandinavian banks for inflicting hardship on Latvia. Skele
hectored his listeners for over an hour at a highly-scripted
party congress, promising to clean up the party, with no
mention of foreign policy other than a pledge to increase
energy ties with "Russia, Scandinavia, Poland and Lithuania".
However, the current foreign minister, Maris Riekstins (who
joined the party at the height of its fortunes several years
back),promised no change in foreign policy under a People's
Party-led government. Chairperson of the party's
parliamentary group, Vineta Muizniece privately told PolCouns
that the People's Party would not align itself with Slesers
and Harmony Center. The People's Party, which remains well

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organized in the Latvian countryside will need all Skele's
skill and wealth to overcome a great deficit of public trust.
Only some six percent of voters expressing a preference now
say they would vote for the party, leading to speculation
that Skele and company may not break the five-percent
threshold for parliamentary representation.

Under the Radar
--------------


5. (C) Meanwhile, the mayor of the port of Ventspils, Aivars
Lembergs continues to quietly generate support for the Greens
and Farmers Union (17 MP's). Among voters expressing a
preference, 14 percent name the Greens and Farmers Union as
their pick. Green party co-chair Viesturs Silenieks
privately told PolCouns that the party would deliver a
positive, reassuring message to voters, and would not make
waves as elections approached. He was confident that the
party would perform well, and that its constructive,
pragmatic approach to economic development was becoming
increasingly adopted by other European green parties.
Silenieks would make no promises with regard to future
government partners after elections, but noted that the
party's largely rural constituency would be unhappy with an
alliance with the largely urban, ethnic-Russian Harmony
Center.


6. (C) Comment: It does not now appear likely that Slesers,
Skele and Lembergs, will form an open, common electoral
front, or seek to bring down the government in advance of
elections. Nevertheless, all three of these "oligarchs" are
currently conspicuously refraining from criticizing one
another. As Unity's Sarmite Elerte puts it: "all three are
selling variations of the same brand -- strong individual
leadership." Elerte could not say who would lead "Unity" as
the standard-bearer, but a collective of like-minded women
leaders: New Era Chair Solvita Aboltina, Vaira Paegle (late
of the People's Party),Sandra Kalniete of Civic Union, and
Elerte herself offer a possible alternative to the "strong
hand" brand. Genuine coalition-building will likely take
place amongst these four poles after, rather than prior to
elections.
GARBER