Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09RIGA310
2009-06-03 11:49:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Riga
Cable title:  

LATVIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGNS FUELED BY ETHNIC TENSION

Tags:  PGOV SOCI PHUM LG 
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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PHUM LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGNS FUELED BY ETHNIC TENSION

Ref RIGA 122

UNCLAS RIGA 000310

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PHUM LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGNS FUELED BY ETHNIC TENSION

Ref RIGA 122


1. Summary: Ethnic identity remains an important -- and perhaps
decisive -- factor in the June 6 municipal and European Parliament
elections in Latvia. Several parties have based their campaigns on
divisions between Latvians and Russians and their sometimes
divergent political goals. Ethnic politics are an evergreen theme
in Latvian elections, but this election may hinge on the issue more
than most, as parties lack substantive programs for economic
recovery and fall back on the emotions of ethnicity. End summary.


2. As in previous elections, several parties have based their
campaigns on the ethnic divisions of Latvians and Russians. The
most important races are in Riga, which is fairly evenly split
between Russian speakers and Latvian speakers. Russian-speakers may
swing the vote.


3. Some parties base their entire campaign on identity politics.
The party For Fatherland and Freedom (TB/LNNK) has run ads directed
at its ideological rival Harmony Centre --a party most popular
amongst the Russian speaking population (see reftel). Their latest
ad featured a cartoon of Latvian coalition politicians fighting each
other to get the milk of a cow marked "Latvia." Once the Latvian
politicians have killed one another for the milk, Russian
politicians saunter in and walk away with the cow.


4. On the other side of the spectrum, PCTVL, a Russian speakers'
party, ran ads urging Russians to vote for their candidates for
European Parliament in order to put 'our people' in Brussels.
PCTVL's explicit goals include strengthening the status of the
Russian language in Latvia and the EU, cooperating with the Russian
Orthodox Church, and promoting Russian economic ties with the EU.
PCTVL candidate and current MEP Tatjana Zdanoka is essentially
running as a single-issue candidate, promising to focus on helping
Russian-speaking non-citizens gain voting rights in Latvia, although
this remains a national, not EU, decision.


5. Even other parties that are not playing the ethnic card quite as
overtly as TB/LNNK and PCTVL are focusing their campaigns on only
one of the two ethnic/language groups. The one candidate who is
actively courting voters regardless of ethnicity is former transport
minister Ainars Slesers of Latvia's First Party/Latvia's Way
(LPP/LC),who has carried out a massive and colorful campaign in
both Latvian and Russian. In his campaign events, he uses both
languages interchangeably. Slesers is the most popular candidate
for mayor, largely because anywhere from 35 - 45 percent of Russian
voters say they support him. No other candidate comes close to this
broad appeal. This is largely due to Slesers' personality and his
ability to project himself as an optimistic, pragmatic hands-on
politician. Polls show that Russian support for Slesers personally
does not necessarily translate into Russian support for his party,
making it difficult to predict how well he will do.


6. Harmony Center's candidate for mayor, Nils Ushakovs, is also
making some forays into Latvian-language media and his party has a
few campaign ads in Latvian. But his inter-ethnic efforts are much
more limited and less likely to be successful that Slesers'. This
is mainly because the party is running Alfreds Rubiks for European
Parliament and Rubiks' support of the 1991 putsch in Moscow and his
ardent opposition to restoring Latvia's independence makes him
anathema to the vast majority of ethnic Latvians.


7. Comment: Given Latvia's economic situation and the lack of
substantive policy proposals, it is not surprising that parties are
falling back on ethnic issues to appeal to voters. That does not,
however, make it any less disappointing.

ROGERS